Is Raf OK? -- Installment #241

2026-03-06 -- Jerusalem

Mar 06, 2026

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First Time Here? Readers suggest starting with the expanded Gaza Explainer in #133 and #120.
Top Eleven IsRafOK Entries: All Time Most Viral: #234; #85; #123; #128; #140; #144; #154; #161; #164; #171; #196

Tags: 7 Min Read; Relief!

The airport has partly opened. Limited incoming flights started yesterday. Outbound flights not yet, but allegedly soon. Friends here visiting have booked seats on a bus to Taba, Egypt, to fly out of Sharm el Sheikh.

Iranian missile launches are dramatically reduced. Missile fire from Iran is markedly down. bestshowertime.com shows the event trend is markedly down. Reportedly a vast number of launchers have been taken out.

Civilian infrastructure (hotels, apartment buildings, refineries) across the Gulf continue to be actively attacked by Iranian munitions.

To Drone or Not To Drone?

First, in #238 I wrote that the presence of Israeli drones over Iran strongly suggests an Israeli drone base in eastern Jordan or Western Iran. Then in #239, I backed that out, writing that Israel doesn’t need a remote base because Israel makes drones that can cover the long distance and have plenty of hover time. But then:

Iranian news agency Tasnim: This is an Israeli UAV of the Hermes 450 type (tail number 285) that was downed in Lorestan Province in western Iran.

That is over 1,000km from Israel. Yet the Hermes 450 has a published mission range of 200km. Even if it can be outfitted with auxiliary fuel (unknown if this is an option), it isn’t going going that far.

So... assuming this model is actually being downed over Iran (something I am willing to accept), that is a strong indicator of an Israeli drone base in or adjacent to Iran.

The 1979 Iranian Revolution

#239 is really good. I agree - this [the current war against Iran] had to be done, and perhaps should have been done decades ago. I am old enough to remember (and I was at HU at the time) the Revolution, and the pronouncement about the goal of the new regime being to spread the Islamic Revolution and fundamentalist Islam throughout the world, along with the immediate threats to Israel. We have all watched as their poison spread around the world, killing people throughout the Middle East, in Europe, in Argentina, and all over the rest of the world. I can’t think of a regime (not the people, but the regime) that deserve to be pounded back to the Dark Ages than this one (maybe Putin comes in second place). -S.D.

Iran’s aggressive philosophy, posture and arms development was headed in one direction...

I was (and am) a supporter of Obama’s nuclear agreement with Iran. However the main criticism of it has always been also true: That agreement placed no limits on missile development. Iran poured resources into missile development and arming Hezbollah and Syria.

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You said...

Iran actually has a standing evacuation warning! -M.T.

Iran has long been warning Israelis that they should all leave to Europe and America.

Praying it ends soon, and ushers in a terrific era

A good thought. Not what I am praying for.

I pray for the complete destruction of all Iranian and Iranian-funded military infrastructure and for the flow of funds from Iran to militant groups around the world to halt.

If that takes a month, or a year, I am not happy but I am OK with it.

Terrific era... I will be perfectly happy with OK.

Dept of The Invisible

Items invisible/less-visible in the Western media. (Starts to the north of Israel and goes, clockwise, around the region, ending up in Gaza and then Israel. Not all countries appear in every entry.)

Lebanon

It is widely considered that Hezbollah’s entry into the conflict is a strategic mistake. The result is a unification of Lebanon’s government against Hezbollah and full justification for IDF retaliation against Hezbollah.

Below: A strike on a Hezbollah site in southern Lebanon. Massive secondary explosions show that a large arms cache was there. (It blows my mind that after the many hundred of such missions by the IDF since 2024 that there are still arms to blow up. Hezbollah’s scale is beyond anything that was imagined.)

The IDF is being careful to target only Hezbollah related sites. Below, the IDF Spokesperson in Arabic makes an unprecedented announcement: Four large neighborhoods in Dahieh are to be evacuated immediately: Residents of the Baraj Al-Barajneh and Al-Hadath neighborhoods are required to move east. Residents of the Haret Hreik and Al-Shiyah neighborhoods are required to move north. Anyone who moves south is risking their life.

Iran

The Iranian regime shut off the internet at the beginning of the conflict and it is still off. Almost all the information coming from Iran is from Iranian official channels.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to NBC: We have no intention of closing the Strait of Hormuz.

But wait... an Iranian general said, two days ago, that Iran had closed the Strait of Hormuz.

Chaos at the top.

Or disinformation?

Below: The Damavand area this morning in eastern Tehran. Iranians delight in every explosion.

The Crazy You Learn

A couple of days ago, an Iranian UAV hit a military hangar in Cyprus.

What’s in the hangar?

U-2 spy planes of the USAF.

Wait: The U-2 is still in service???

Yes.

The shit you learn....

Every Iranian Missile a War Crime?

Indiscriminate bombing of civilian areas. Below: A missile from the last Iranian barrage fell, according to Palestinian channels, in the Al-Masaken neighborhood in eastern Nablus. Shrapnel fell in Huwara.

Multiple reports of Iranian missiles scattering illegal cluster munitions. They have come down in Israel and in Palestinian areas of the West Bank.

Above: This is how the Iranian regime stages mass popular support videos. 22:30 March 5, Tehran: Seven cars and one truck: Regime representatives block the street to simulate a long traffic jam. Afterwards, the Iranian Broadcasting Authority’s film crew begins documenting it as if it were a backed up stream of regime supporters.

Not Propaganda Dept

Iranian opposition sources: Iranian commanders have begun moving through the streets disguised as women, for fear of being identified and harmed. Above attached photos, Yasser Lafouti was identified – one of the commanders of the Basij forces [internal security, they put down the protests last month].

Purim costumes?

Also Not Propaganda:

IDF Spokesperson: Approximately 50 Israeli Air Force fighter jets guided by precise IDF intelligence struck Ali Khamenei’s underground bunker in Tehran.
The underground military bunker, located beneath the regime’s leadership compound in the center of Tehran, was intended to be used by the Supreme Leader of the Iranian regime as a secure emergency command center. Khamenei was eliminated before he could use the bunker during operation “Roaring Lion” but the compound continued to be used by senior Iranian regime officials.
The underground compound was created by the regime as a base for advancing military activities and its extremist ideologies against the State of Israel and the Western world.
It spanned multiple streets in the heart of Tehran and contained numerous entrances and meeting rooms for senior members of the Iranian terrorist regime.
The bunker was struck following a lengthy process of intelligence collection and research conducted by the IDF’s Intelligence Directorate.

The IDF continues: In the bunker that was attacked today in Tehran, there were senior officials who thought it was protecting them. The bunker was attacked with about 100 munitions. We are examining the results of the strike.

Below: IDF infographic of the underground command infrastructure of the Iranian regime. Placing military related infrastructure under civilian areas removes any protection the above ground infrastructure may have under international law.

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Religion as Politics

Iran: The imams of the third Friday prayer of the month of Ramadan [March 6] in Ahvaz, Hormozgan, Khorramabad, and Dehdasht led the prayer dressed in military uniforms with a rifle at their side.

Church is state.

Yemen

The Houthi leadership announced that their “finger is on the trigger” and they are ready to engage.

With the massive American buildup right there, I’d be careful...

Israel

Dome of the Rock

Al Aqsa was closed for prayers because of the Iran war. (There are no shelters close by and large gatherings are banned nationwide.)

Relief Area

Alef - Purim Grammen

We think the tradition of Purim Grammen’s [rhymes] is a Galitzener ritual. At my Seattle community of Minyan Ohr Chadash, the community Purim meal has a few people stand up to deliver them.

This year, we had a small slice of Minyan Ohr Chadash in Seattle. In this recording, Adina and I recreate the S.G. grammen he did on Purim day in Jerusalem:

0:00

-3:02

Pre emptive strike seems like aggression
But the target could have caused deep depression.
Attacking a nuclear threat is a worthwhile obsession
Even if it means a retaliatory session.
The war happened on purim
We hope it’s the fulfillment of a dream
The Ayatolla became an actual meme
He was more mortal than he seemed
Is this truly a religious battle
Going back to the time we sacrificed cattle
When we hear the Haman we shake the rattle
But Iran’s hatred is more than I can handle
I hope this comes to a quick solution
That includes a nuclear resolution
I do not think that’s an impossible notion
May the Gd of Mordechai and Esther second the motion
—S.G.

Bet - Huge crater near my house. there was a building right there!!

(It’s not an Iranian missile... it’s light rail construction! Much of the city is ripped up.)

Gimmel - Non fiction

After the evacuation warnings for the Dahieh part of Beirut [c.f. Lebanon section above], the Iraqi writer Khalifa Dalimi writes:
“I hereby appoint the spokesperson of the Israeli army (Avichay Adraee) as the supreme leader of the Shiites, replacing Khamenei. Because, by Allah, the Shiites listen to him and obey him, especially the Shiites in Lebanon, more than they listen to and obey their own religious authority.”

(Raf observes: When it comes to Lebanon, Avichay Adraee is stuck in his job! All of Lebanon knows him and listens to him. The curse of becoming a meme…)