Is Raf OK? -- Installment #123
2024-06-20 -- Santa Rosa & Seattle
First Time Here? Readers suggest starting with #120.
Tags: 5 Min; Few Videos
The war drags on. Some reservists have been fighting for 8 months now with just a few one or two week breaks. Others serve two or three days a week, every week. The inability of Bibi to "solve" the matter of expanding military service to the religious, it is yet another fracture.
The situation in Lebanon worsens: The war between Hezbollah and Israel is hotter and hotter (now featuring bombs, rockets and brush fires). Within Lebanon, a growing chorus of political leaders speak out wanting to push out Hezbollah. Lebanon’s politics being as fractured as they are, this is unlikely. (Lebanon is an example of Iran's regional power. Iran operates an entire "remote military" on an extra-judicial basis in Lebanon. Like a superpower.)
The emotional toll is real. In the piece below, Thomas Friedman discusses the exhaustion of the Israeli army, noting that the cadre of combat commanders is small, and has been at war for eight months now....
If You Read One Thing...
On June 18, 2024 Thomas Friedman discussed the Israel situation. (PDF here) An excerpt (emphasis Raf’s):
“Mr. Sinwar, you claim this is a great victory for Hamas — a total Israeli withdrawal and a stable cease-fire. I just want to know: What existed on Oct. 6 between you and Israel, before your surprise attack? Oh, let me answer that: a total Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a stable cease-fire. If you don’t mind, I’d like to stick around for a few days to watch you explain to Gazans how you started an eight-month war — causing the destruction of roughly 70 percent of Gaza’s housing stock and leaving, by your count, some 37,000 Gazans dead, many of them women and children — so you could get Gaza back to exactly where it was on Oct. 6, in a cease-fire with Israel and no Israeli troops here. Another Hamas victory like this and Gaza will be permanently unlivable.”
And to Israelis who would ask, “Friedman, are you crazy, you would let Sinwar run Gaza again?” my answer would again be — yes, for now. The alternatives — Israel running Gaza or Gaza becoming another Somalia — are far worse. Netanyahu’s idea that some perfect Palestinians — who are neither members of Hamas nor the Palestinian Authority — will run the place for Israel is a fantasy.
The only people who can defeat Hamas are the Palestinians of Gaza. They, too, need better leadership, and if they find it, we should help them rebuild. But until then, Israel would be crazy to want to stay in Gaza and be responsible for its reconstruction. That honor should go to Sinwar.
I believe that the morning after the morning after [e.g. some days or weeks after the IDF pulls out — Raf] Sinwar emerges from his tunnel, many Gazans will want to pummel him for the disaster he has visited on them. And if not, Sinwar and Sinwar alone will be responsible when the water doesn’t flow, when the building materials don’t arrive, when the sun doesn’t shine — not Israel. And if he is so foolish as to restart the war with Israel or attempt to smuggle in weapons instead of food and housing for his people, it will all be on him.
Sadly, if all this war does is buy Israel another long timeout with Hamas, well, maybe that’s all that’s possible. After all, up to now, the real history of Jews and Palestinians, going back to the early 20th century, has been: war, timeout, war, timeout, war, timeout, war, timeout, war, timeout. And the real difference is what each side did in the timeouts.
Maybe one day that will change, but for now Israel needs to get the hell out of Gaza and back into a timeout.
Seen
Shavuot
שבועות עם תקווה Shavuot [the harvest holiday happening this week] with hope.
Ber Sheva
לראשונה בבאר שבע מודעות בערבית שקוראות לצעירים בדואים להתגייס לצה"ל (אסף פוזיילוב) A first in Ber Sheva: Sign in Arabic calling on young Beduins to enlist in the Israeli Army. (credit: Asaf Pozyalov)
(File under: Not your grandpa’s Israel)
Munich
Northern Israel
Israeli girls take cover as Hezbollah fires rockets and UAVs into Israel today. More than 19,000 rockets were launched from Lebanon into Israel since October 7. They wage war against Israel right now -- and then complain when we respond. When will the world take action against Hezbollah?
Interview with Special Forces
(The following includes helmet cam footage from the hostage rescue. View with caution.)
For more, read the most detailed article about the rescue.
Thought
Read
From Gaza
“There is uncontrolled anger against Hamas,” he said. “It threw the Palestinian people into the bottom of the well.”
The New York Times interviews Gaza residents. (PDF here)
About That Prime Minister....
הנתק בין רה"מ נתניהו לראש אמ"ן חליוה לפני 7 באוקטובר: מתחילת כהונת ראש הממשלה בדצמבר 2022 ועד בוקר הטבח, השניים קיימו שתי פגישות עבודה בלבד, בניגוד לנוהג לפיו תדירות הפגישות 'תהיה תכופה' (גילי כהן)
Between Prime Minister Netanyahu and Head of Security Haliva before October 7: From the beginning of the Prime Minister's term in December 2022 until the morning of the massacre, the two held only two working meetings, contrary to the normal system which calls for meetings 'to be frequent' -- Gili Cohen
And Gantz' Resignation
Following the resignation of centrist ministers Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot from Netanyahu's wartime government on Sunday night, Western diplomats who spoke with Haaretz voiced concerns regarding the growing influence of far-right actors within the government.
It wasn't just Gantz...
I have the same concern.
"Whatever Gantz thought he could gain by being in the government has now run its course. Israel is stuck on all fronts and has been now for months. If even Gantz, the man who always salutes and reports for duty, is now leaving the war cabinet, this government is totally useless'" – Anshel Pfeffer
College Protesters Take Over CSU Admin Building
Protesters at CSU Los Angeles recently took over a building full of administrative staff, holding staff and the university president hostage.
Observed:
That's how it is when your role model is a terrorist organization that kidnaps people... Will this wake up some Americans who still don't understand what's going on around them?
Relief Area
Alef
Bet
Twist on “Baby on Board” stickers: Baby’s in Gaza
[referring to infant and child hostages]
Gimmel
How Can Every Rally Be A Pro Palestinian Rally?
There Have To Be Some Amateur Palestinian Rallies...
Dalet
Hey
Don’t worry comrades! My holy learning is dedicated to his healing and your success!
Vav
The Iranian opposition in an amusing picture: all 6 candidates for the Iranian presidential elections - in the image of Iran's supreme leader, Khamenei. Whoever is elected will not really be able to change anything from what the supreme leader decides.
Zayin
Experiment of the week: I have been wearing a yamulke all the time. The antisemitism in the West (most visible in some demonstrations) gets a lot of focus in Israel. I have held, since the beginning, that it is a small group of professionals fanning a small group of social media addicts.
So, when I return to Israel, I expect to be asked, "Did you notice any antisemitism?" As part of the test, I am wearing a yamulke more than I otherwise might.
(Interim results: Maybe two comments "Keep safe over there." Otherwise nothing so far.)
Stay well,
Raf
(Thank you A.K., S.F.Z.)