Is Raf OK? -- Installment #238
2026-03-02 -- Jerusalem
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Top Eleven IsRafOK Entries: All Time Most Viral: #234; #85; #123; #128; #140; #144; #154; #161; #164; #171; #196
Update: Post email release, some formatting enhancements went in and the targets of the regions rockets were expanded to include Saudi Arabia (sorry for the omission!)
Tags: 10 Min Read; Raf Overview; Relief
It’s 8:15 AM on Monday and we have been to the shelter twice. The first time was just after 7:00, so in Jerusalem we are not complaining. The Tel Aviv area has it much harder. And now Hezbollah is rocketing the north (Hezbollah calls it a “defensive” war).
Mail
Yeah, def crazy times w Bibi
I do not think the Iran war has anything to do with Bibi. Any Israeli Prime Minister in office this year (or last) would do the same thing. When it comes to Iran, Syria and Hezbollah, any leader, of any party, in the Prime Minister’s office would, in my assessment, have taken the same actions. The only delta over the past few years might have been the war in Gaza.
Why?
Because war is part of the human condition and a material part of the human story.
It has no political party.
Details below.
[RE #237] Good read today in light of the attacks...though I see there’s no mention of the girls killed at the elementary school.
I understand this to refer to the Iranian claim of an American strike on a school. A day later Iran said 158 girls were killed. Gaza style playing with numbers? The Iranians also announced: “We attacked various American bases in the area, which caused the deaths and injuries of 560 American soldiers” [a false statement] and “40 dead and 60 injured in Haifa in a new wave of Iranian airstrikes” [also false].
The Girl’s school was hit. Apparently by an American munition (Israel was not operating anywhere close to that far east on the first day.)
Before we flip the outrage bit, let’s “walk the dog:” [1]
Israel’s Home Front directives are public--they are posted to a public web site.
Iran knew an attack was coming (the huge military buildup over recent weeks)
Iran can see exactly the moment when the Israeli government closes schools, bans gatherings and sends everyone to bomb shelters
Israel did this closure Saturday morning at 8AM (Israel time)—Over an hour before the incident at the Girl’s school.
What did Iran do to protect their citizens?
Nothing, it seems.
No sirens. No school closures.
The Iranian regime, which spends untold billions on the production of offensive weapons (ballistic missiles) did nothing to protect its populace from the predictable result of its unilateral arms race.
Ditto Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Ditto Hamas in Gaza.
I don’t know whether Iran has a military site next to the school. Hezbollah puts its headquarters in the middle of a residential neighborhood in Beirut. Hamas militarized essentially every hospital, UNRWA building and school in the Gaza Strip. Should it ever come to pass that events in Gaza are brought to a tribunal, you will see thousands of cases of sites protected under international law losing that status because of Hamas’ choices.
Including ambulances.
But about outrage, there is another aspect.
In the U.S., many, particularly on the political Left, lack direct relationships with members of the U.S. Armed Forces.
Not so in Israel. We all have family and friends who are in the army. We can, and do, directly ask: What did you see? What did your unit do? Did you ever see an IDF soldier point a weapon at women or children?
Our friends are simple and direct about what they saw, what they did, and what their personal lines are. [They are Israelis.]
These conversations happen a lot.
For example, in synagogue a few months ago during Rosh Hashana, I sat next to a guy nearing 40 managing his three small kids. In conversation he told me of the many, many months he had spent in a combat unit in Gaza. His unit’s job? Watching over one of the controversial food distribution points. Did his unit ever level weapons at people getting food? Never. Did he see such a thing happen? Never. Was there gunfire? A few times, but from his base only in the air if the crowd went the wrong way.
In the aftermath of the report of the school in Iran:
Pentagon spokesman Captain Tim Hawkins said in a statement that the agency “was aware of reports concerning civilian harm resulting from ongoing military operations. We take these reports seriously and are looking into them. The protection of civilians is of utmost importance, and we will continue to take all precautions available to minimize the risk of unintended harm.”
Balance that with regimes that invest to the hilt in offensive weapons yet choose not to send out SMS messages telling people to stay home or avoid gatherings.
No factory needed. No clandestine import regime to evade sanctions. Just an SMS.
War sucks. Deeply.
However war is a material part of human history. Even a central part. Avoiding the topic, in all its horror, isn’t constructive.
Iran makes choices. Lots of them. The Ayatollah easily could have made domestic development the top goal. No one would have cared. The Ayatollah could have “defended the homeland” without pouring resources into offensive militaries around the region. The Ayatollahs could have left their missile factories alone after the June 2025 war, but instead rebuilt them as quickly as possible.
And the Ayatollahs couldn’t be bothered to assign one or two people to watch Israel’s Homeland Defense web site (Israeli IP address required—use a VPN if outside Israel) and have SMS messages sent to Iranians to stay safe when war broke out. The girl’s school was struck an hour after Israel had publicly announced closed schools, banned gatherings and told people to stay near shelters.
Below, small snip from Israel’s Homeland Defense web site:
On the outside wall of the shelter we use:
Me on the inside, reading aloud:
The book, fwiw: Winterdance by Gary Paulson. Highly recommended!
Where do I get my good news fix?
Conflict, movement and displacement are material parts of the human story. And so is progress. My three recent faves electrek: Electric semi trucks are real and proving their advantages in real world, side-by-side evaluations; Home solar installs in the U.S. are evolving with the end of the tax incentive “...the market isn’t slowing down so much as evolving;” and, A new Google data center triggers 1.9 GW of clean energy, including 300 MW of long‑duration energy storage.
From all available information, the greening of energy is an unstoppable force. Not just because of economics, but because most people see it as the right thing to do. That includes decision makers at all levels in all domains.
Back to the Values topic
Speaking to Mayor Mamdani’s condemnation of the attack on Iran and announcement that: “Iranian New Yorkers: you are part of the fabric of this city -- you are our neighbors, small business owners, students, artists, workers and community leaders. You will be safe here.” Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib notes:
Mr. Mayor didn’t want to speak to Iranian New Yorkers when the fascist regime slaughtered tens of thousands of their countrymen & women, but is only addressing the handful of Iranians in NY who may still be supporters of the Islamic Republic.
Just like Palestinian lives seem to only matter to most when Israel is involved but not when Hamas is, the Mayor & hordes of politicians like him didn’t care when masses of Iranians were butchered by the Islamist regime, but suddenly, Iranian lives matter when the US and Israel are involved.
Comrade Mayor had nothing to say about 6 Arab Muslim countries being struck today by the Islamic Republic’s missiles, during the month of Ramadan, nor is he addressing Arab New Yorkers about their nations being attacked by the Ayatollah’s regime.
I would correct Mr. Alkhatib a tad.
He writes: “Palestinian lives seem to only matter to most when Israel is involved...”
I suggest that available data indicates: No one cares about Palestinian lives.
Hamas doesn’t give a single civilian shelter in their massive tunnel network.
Palestinian militant organizations (Hamas and others) routinely use boys 15-17 in their organizations.
No “pro Palestinian” today articulates a vision for what a peaceful, dignity-based Palestine would look like.
This is the same deficit currently visible among Americans who protest today’s war against the Ayatollahs: Until 30 months ago, this region had something like 200,000 rockets pointed at Israel and Saudi Arabia, with 100’s more added every few months.[2]
In recent months, Iran boosted its ballistic missile production to a dozen+ per month.
How long do you think that was going to continue before disaster struck?
What percentage of those missiles are you willing to have pointed at your neighborhood? For how long? What would you do about it?
Assad’s arsenal in Syria was demolished in 2024-25.
Likewise most of Hezbollah’s.
Iran’s actions and proportionally enormous military budget made today’s war inevitable. It was only, ever, a question of when.
For a human angle on the history we are in the middle of, Hope and Fear in Tehran, A letter from an Iranian.
Below: One neighborhood away from my place in Tel Aviv, one day ago:
Below: IDF infographic showing Iran’s stockpile of ballistic missiles growing until the June 2025 war, and the recovery of production:
And...
Below: Iran’s former leader hosting the leaders of Hamas in Tehran.
Iran continues to launch indiscriminate attacks: A 5-star hotel in Bahrain, the Dubai airport (again), residential tower in Bahrain, civilian areas of Israel,
And now: The Saudi company Aramco--a facility was hit by an Iranian UAV and shut down.
Below: Residential tower in Bahrain, hit last night:
Below: Iranian attack on a residential tower in Dubai:
Drones Over Iran… How?
Israeli and American drones are operating over Iran. Israeli drones are over Tehran. To my knowledge, Israel lacks the super long range drones of the U.S. (American export controls on drone technology allowed several countries, Israel among them, to develop advanced drone industries, but I don’t think any country has long range tech like the U.S.) I have to imagine that as part of the initial attack, Israel set up a drone base in Western Iran. This is a fantastic idea, and without (to my knowledge) documentation, but I can explain Israeli drone footage of Tehran no other way. After email release I discovered that Israel makes its own long range drone. This is discussed in #239. In May, 2026, it was disclosed that Israel did, indeed, operate a base in Iraq to support operations over Iran. More in #239.
Iran is attacking everything. One of the targets: Cyprus, where thousands of British soldiers are stationed. Emirati oil platforms. Hotels and other civilian infrastructure across the Gulf continues to be attacked by Iran.
The attack on Cyprus directly resulted in Britain allowing the U.S. to use the base at Diego Garcia to bomb Iran’s missile infrastructure, saving the U.S. about 50% of the flying distance.
More About The Home Front
SMS sent to all Tel Aviv residents from Tel Aviv City Hall (via Google Translate):
Digital Emergency: Dear residents, several important updates for today - we have opened all shelters, parking lots and protected spaces, including in schools and kindergartens.
The Red Line stations of the light rail also serve as protected spaces open to the public. Go to the municipality’s website and search for the protected space closest to you: https://tinyurl.com/ycx6zbrw. For a list of accessible shelters: https://bit.ly/4aHkEj4.
In addition, we have opened a gathering point at the School of Arts for residents of the area who need assistance from municipality representatives. Please note: If you have property or assets that were damaged in the attack - contact the Property Tax Department directly at the link https://bit.ly/DamageClaim.
At the same time, we are increasing field patrols by security, municipal supervision and the Civil Defense at the relevant centers, in order to maintain order and security in the public space. We remind you to remain cautious, avoid photographing crash sites and providing locations, and of course to obey the Home Front Command’s instructions at all times. For ongoing information, join the Tel Aviv-Yafo Municipality’s neighborhood WhatsApp groups: https://tinyurl.com/47cs4wrd. For any additional assistance, contact the municipal hotline - we are here to serve you at the hotline +106 or *9106.
And from my bank (again via Google Translate):
Hello,
We at Bank Hapoalim are here for you - even these days.
The bank’s website, app, voicemail and self-service devices are at your disposal at all times.
Our bankers are available at 2407* and you can also write to us on the bank’s website and app via ‘Contact a Banker’.
For the list of open branches and operating hours>https://www.bankhapoalim.co.il/he/branchs-hours-changes
We wish everyone quiet and safe days,
Bank Hapoalim
What Next?
I have no idea. There is talk of the conflict lasting another 3-4 weeks. But how is that possible? The IDF reported on March 1 that they dropped 1,200 munitions on Iran in one day. The stockpiles are not so deep...
IDF Spokesperson: 40 Iranian commanders and senior officials, including the Iranian Chief of Staff, were eliminated in the first minute of the opening strike of the current operation in Iran.
Dept of The Invisible
Items invisible/less-visible in the Western media. (Starts to the north of Israel and goes, clockwise, around the region, ending up in Gaza and then Israel. Not all countries appear in every entry.)
Lebanon
The Lebanese army in a defensive formation around the US Embassy in Lebanon.
Gulf States
Above: The burned Jebel Ali port in Dubai.
Yemen
Surprisingly, there has been no observable hostility from the Houthis in Yemen.
Gaza
While the world looks away, Hamas entrenches its rule.
Below: Using an ambulance to truck around hoarded commercial goods to drive up prices.
Relief Area
Alef
Top: “Kaplanistim” [protesters against Bibi’s regime] in the skies over Tehran
Bottom: Draft dodgers in mouse holes [Bibi’s regime members]
Bet
(Yes, I’ve used it before.)
Gimmel
Dalet - Nonfiction
Hey - We will die before we make an agreement [sounds like: draft into the army...]
The phrase in Israeli politics: נמות ולא נתגייס-We will die before we draft [into the army]
This is a twist, making the Ayatollah say נמות ולא נתפייס-We will die before we agree [to end Uranium enrichment]
Vav
Zayin
Chet - Parking Lot Shelter in Tel Aviv
I am on floor -4 in stall 122
Tet
Yod
I disagree.
The difference is, I think... On the left the woman voluntarily, as an adult, entered that order and can leave any time (barriers acknowledged). The woman on the right is probably forced to do it and the barriers to leave are fantastically high.
Chaf
Lammed
I still want to share my visit to Kibbutz Magen.
Crazy how one topic can push out another.
Go read electrek.co. Or Skinny Legs and All by Tom Robbins.
To Peace. And Progress for Iran.
Raf
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(Thank you A.K., M.T., R.G.)
[1] From Raf Language, A Glossary:
[2] Hezbollah had 150,000+; Hamas launched almost 10,000 in the first weeks of the October 7 war and likely had at least two or three times that number before the war started—25,000 for Hamas is probably a low estimate; and before June, 2025, Iran had thousands of short and medium range surface to surface rockets and missiles—15,000 is a conservative number. Surface to surface weapons are by definition offensive, and the use of non-precision weapons in civilian areas is a war crime. During 2023-2024, Hezbollah repurposed guided anti-tank rockets, considered a defensive weapon, into an offensive war crime by targeting civilian housing and population centers. The Houthis had, it is believed, around 100 missiles. Syria had several hundred or more surface to surface missiles. Based on available information, and considering that anti-tank TOW rockets were morphed into offensive tools by Hezbollah, 200,000 is a reasonable total estimate.