First Time Here? Readers suggest starting with the expanded Gaza Explainer in #133 and #120.
Top Ten IsRafOK Entries: #85; #123; #128; #140; #144; #154; #161; #162; #164; #171
Tags: 9 min read; Lots of Mail
Updates: The Aid Trucks section below was expanded on June 28.
Naomi Shaanan
And now...
The hostagesPictured: Naomi Shaanan, resident of Beersheva. Killed by Iranian ballistic missile. Daily protester for the hostages.
Mail
Israel Commits Asymmetric Violence [email]
Does this mean war is only OK if the sides are evenly matched?
When it comes to political protests in the west, is there symmetric violence? (It is law enforcement that uses force--asymmetrically from what I observe--in those situations.)
Most violence in the world is asymmetric. That allows violence to be brief. Think most street protests (a few university camp-outs/sit-ins aside). Think the Madleen. Think getting arrested.
If a conflict drags on, that is a sign that the violence is symmetric. Think Ukraine; Gaza; The Troubles in Ireland).
Symmetry in violence has nothing to do with equipment, economy or peoplepower. It isn't about who has bombers and who lacks them. It isn't about which side has the bigger army, or if one side is economically sanctioned and one is not. In the examples above, material disparities are huge, but the conflicts drag(ged) on because the violence brought to bear is/was relatively symmetric.
In Gaza, for example, is there really asymmetry?
Hamas has held out for 630 days against a military much larger & better armed. This in itself shows the falsehood of the "helpless, no-army people of Gaza" narrative--a narrative built on decades of Palestinian propaganda that frames Israel as mighty and the Palestinians as helpless. [This propaganda originally designed by the Soviet KGB in the 1970's.]
If it were true that Gaza was a helpless, defenseless place, the IDF would have taken over Gaza in days or weeks. The inverted propaganda of “asymmetry” does not square with the reality in Gaza: Hamas invested hundreds of millions in tunnels and underground weapons factories and training and strategy development. This is, demonstrably, effective. More effective, we can estimate, than investing that money in tanks or fighter jets. With those tunnels, arms factories, and the Hamas strategy of embedding in the civilian populace, Hamas has fought off divisions of the Israeli Army for nearly two years.
Weak?
Defenseless?
The civilians of Gaza are defenseless because defending them is not part of Hamas' mission. Hamas chooses to make war in the middle of those civilians because that is a key part of Hamas' military doctrine. Hamas even knows how to use Israeli air superiority [part of Israel's military doctrine] against the IDF: From Gaza just yesterday: Hamas had a firing position in a building in Khan Younis. IDF soldiers on the ground asked the air force to bomb the building, as the height gave the Hamas unit protection. Hamas knows what happens next: Before the bomb is dropped, IDF soldiers in the area jump into Armored Personal Carriers (APCs) for protection. One of the Hamas team was near an APC. IDF soldiers jumped in, the Hamasnik jumped on the APC and dropped a bomb in the hatch.
Killed all seven soldiers in it—highly trained combat engineers (whose main job in Gaza is blowing up tunnels).
This example—far from isolated—of Hamas using its adversary's doctrine and procedures against it is a high level of combat readiness.
Hamas is formidable.
19+ months of war show it's so.
And we haven't even started on Hamas' control of most of Gaza's free-food supply.
Hamas practices hybrid warfare at the highest level.
Dare I say... you don't want them as your enemy. (If you are Jewish, or Gay or secular: Tough luck!)
One Solution is to End [Israeli] Statehood [from a social media thread I am in]
Does the writer imagine, for a moment, the violence and bloodshed implied by such a statement?
Everyone in the Middle East knows what would happen were the Israeli state ended or phased out.
This is an example of how casually the Left discusses mass bloodshed. It's amazing how normalized this has become.
Israel is Occupying Lebanon and Syria [from a phone conversation]
That is the American Far Left talking. This is not the perspective of the governments or mainstream in Israel or Lebanon or Syria.
In Lebanon, Hezbollah continues to attempt a rebuild, violating their agreement with Lebanon's government. Israel's presence is to stymie this.
In Syria, there are two issues: As in Lebanon, the central government is weak. Different from Lebanon, the orientation of the new government vis-a-vis its border with Israel and "old Syria's" agreements that ended the 1973 war are not yet established.
Where should Gazans Go? [email]
Well, for starters in the Rafah area there is an area outside Hamas and IDF control that has temporary schools and food distribution (the Bedouin clan of Yasser Abu Shabab runs it).
Within Gaza, the situation is a war zone. Hamas has stocked warehouses to eat from and tunnels to retreat to. The tent encampments are well organized. Given that a number of hospitals are running (and medical supplies are included in the aid trucks coming in), the situation in Gaza may be better than most refugee camps in the Middle East and East Africa.
None of these places are fun.
It can be worth recalling that Gazans have been emigrating for years, starting in 2017 when Egypt opened its border with Gaza for the first time in a decade. Starting that year, Gazan emigration has been a hefty revenue source for both Hamas and Egypt--for years prior to 2023 war. (This article is from 2019 - PDF)
While the economy of Gaza is blamed on Israel, Egypt and Hamas have their hands in it as well. A survey in June of 2023 (PDF)--months before the war--said 29% of Gazans wanted to emigrate. A material chunk of that (harder to measure) is how much of this is political, escape-from-Hamas emigration pressure.
Reminder of the week: 20-30% of Gaza's population are not descendants of refugees. They are native Gazans.
I’m glad you have interesting things happening over there. It all is very alarming from my desk in Marin. [text message]
What the news shows is not what the world is.
Is it fun or nice being in a place targeted by inaccurate ballistic missiles?
No.
In the 1980's, as part of a Citizen Diplomacy protest against the Cold War, I was in the USSR. A friend said, "Think about it, those American missiles are now pointed at us."
The cause for alarm is both smaller (in terms of direct experience) and larger than what the news says (which fails to capture slow moving events).
If there's a ceasefire in Gaza, does the blog end? [email]
I hope so.
Dept of The Invisible
Items invisible in the Western media. (Now combined with the Postmark concept, to help consolidate topics by locale.)
Iran
The ancient Jewish community of Iran persists to this day. Iranian state news released photos and this statement:
Members of the Jewish community gathered at the Abrishmi synagogue in Tehran to express their support for Iran's Supreme Leader and the Iranian Armed Forces for their firm response to the Zionist entity.
On this side, the IDF has a spokesperson in Persian, who gets hundreds of thousands of views on social media (millions on TikTok). Profile on the IDF web site.
A detailed article about the night of the attack on Iran from the Wall Street Journal can be seen here.
Attack on Evin Prison
In #186 the attack on the infamous Evin Prison was mentioned. At the time, it appeared to be an effort to open the prison gates (so the prisoners, largely political ones, could go free). Turns out it was an assassination of the Prosecutor General of that prison.
E.g. A step for the accused and against the Iranian police state.
Additionally:
Iranian sources: Vahid Heydarpour, director of the political prisoners' wing at the notorious Evin Prison, was killed in the Israeli attack on the prison in Tehran.
Heydarpour was a symbol of the repression of political opponents of the regime.
Is The War Over?
Iranian opposition channels are reporting recent explosions at an Iranian missile base in the area of the city of Khomein in central Iran.
Such events occured some weeks prior to the Iran war.
IDF Announcement
IDF Spokesperson Reveals the Figures Behind Operation Rising Lion:
Attacks:
1,500 Air Force sorties and 600 aerial refuelings
1,400 fighter jet strikes and 500 drone strikes
The furthest attack - in Mashhad at a distance of 2,400 km by a fighter jet
Eliminations:
11 senior nuclear scientists
More than 30 senior officials in Iran's security system
Hundreds of soldiers of the Iranian military forces
Nuclear:
3 nuclear sites were attacked: Isfahan, Natanz and Fordow.
Thousands of centrifuges (for uranium enrichment) destroyed
Nuclear research and development centers destroyed
Military infrastructure and weapons:
15 enemy aircraft were destroyed
80 surface-to-air launchers (air defense systems) were destroyed
200 missile launchers were destroyed (50% of all Iranian launchers were destroyed)
35 missile production plants were attacked
6 airports were attacked
Intercepts:
86% success in intercepting ballistic missiles (hundreds launched)
99% success in intercepting UAVs (thousands launched)
Gaza
Fear of Famine
When there are headlines to the effect "Imminent Famine in Gaza," I have learned that this is usually based on reports from the IPC: Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC): https://www.ipcinfo.org/
Their reports are widely cited, including by the UN Secretary General.
An ongoing issue with this organization's work in Gaza: Their methodology vis-a-vis Gaza is not their normal one. Their documented methodology is transparent and open. In Gaza, however, they have chosen an alternate, opaque methodology. (Surprise? Not.)
As a result, they admit to having visibility to less than half of the food going into Gaza, measuring about a third of the food going into Gaza.
Why?
Because the IPC, in Gaza (and contrary to their normal methodology), uses data almost exclusively from the U.N., electing to ignore the data from Israeli agencies that facilitate aid and freight shipments into Gaza. Based on Raf's survey of the report and its critiques, the IPC team building its reports on Gaza consistently ignore data related to Gaza's private sector imports [which are material in size] and NGO aid that is not routed through the U.N. (a big percentage of aid to Gaza--unlike most afflicted regions which lack the charity network Gaza has).
This detail is something the Press and far Left activists get deeply wrong. All the way up to the Secretary General of the U.N.
How many times have you heard the word “famine” in the context of Gaza?
How many famines have there been? (None so far.)
Aid Trucks
Hijacked-by-Hamas aid trucks coming into Gaza this week:
A Hamas warehouse where those trucks end up:
Hamas promotes on social media that they manage orderly food distribution (in contrast to other aid that is either hijacked by Gazans or is chaotically distributed at other aid points. Some of that chaos, as previously mentioned, has been created by Hamas, and some of it seems to be the result of lack of structure at the four GHF distribution points. These distribution points were set up hastily. While they are distributing, based on available information, over a million meals a day, they reportedly lack an organized system for access. The IDF, which is kept hundreds of yards away, is reportedly firing on crowds, at times lethally.):
The fighting over incoming aid is probably “blamed on the occupation” when it is a dynamic that can be found across the Middle East. Incident from this week:
Fire and destruction at Nasser Hospital in Khan Yunis - attacked by Palestinian gunmen
Palestinian channels are reporting that the large hospital (and the only one operating in Khan Yunis) was attacked by gunmen from the Barbakh clan (the largest clan in Khan Yunis), following a clash over aid packages that occurred earlier in Khan Yunis today, during which one of the clan members was killed.
Members of the Barbakh clan entered the hospital because the clan member's attackers fled to the hospital. As a result, much destruction was caused at the scene - ambulances caught fire, the emergency room was vandalized, and now vehicles moving in the area are being shot at.
The Israeli political echelon has directed the IDF to come up with a Hamas-proof food distribution system within 48 hours.
We’ll see how they do… (Food distribution is not necessarily what militaries train for?)
Tunnels
The IDF announced that Reserve Division 252 has completed its four and a half month mission in the Northern Gaza Strip, which included locating and destroying over 6 kilometers of tunnels.
Israel
The war is a social media war... Is this why Hamas chooses not to surrender?
The Harvard CAPS-Harris poll for June 2025 covers mostly U.S. domestic topics. A few pages relate to wars in the Middle East. (Full results, 73 well presented pages of charts):
(Raf suspects that the delta by age reflects social media use by age. What does Raf say? The war hasn’t ended because Hamas is encouraged by protests in the West. What fuels those protests? Social media.)
Relief Area
Alef
Bet
Why does everyone think there will be elections [in Israel] soon?
Because Bibi had a falafel in the shuk and paid for it himself.
Gimmel
Dalet
Will someone tell her that the actual owners of Al Jazeera also funded the [Israeli] Prime Minister's office?
Hey
I get it!
We launched a lightning war on Iran's Ayatollahs so we could have lighting elections to elect a government of Ayatollahs in Israel.
(Word on the street is that Bibi will ride the wave of the victory over Iran to call elections.)
Vav
The Twelve Day War
Out of 627 days...
Zayin
I bought a calendar that erases itself every 10 minutes.
Satisfied?
Chet: A Tel Aviv Chat Group
Now that we've gone a whole day without a missile barrage and we can get back to the important things in life, can anybody help me solve for number 15 Down in the Jerusalem Post crossword puzzle from yesterday? It's on the tip of my tongue, but I just can't...
Tet
Talk about snapping back. Everything in Israel is back to the daily. Even the "high drama" owner of a Pilates studio in Jerusalem is back to her croaking voice messages at midnight, "I am not well and can't teach tomorrow."
Such things, in my world, scream "normal."
To Peace,
Raf
(Thank you A.K., M.T., R.G., R.O.)