First Time Here? Readers suggest starting with the expanded Gaza Explainer in #133 and #120.
Top Ten IsRafOK Entries: #85; #123; #128; #140; #144; #154; #161; #162; #164; #171
Tags: 10 Min Read; Raf Analysis; Life During Wartime; Relief
Update: June 26: Some translations in the Relief area improved. (Thanks M.T.!)
A very intermittent business acquaintance emailed me. Part of my response:
War sucks.
The part unwritten: War is one of the states of humanity.
That is horrible, but any survey of the globe, over any decade, finds scores of conflicts. I used to keep the book A Quick and Dirty Guide to War on my shelf. When some obscure conflict in Africa or Asia would come up, I could figure out who the players were, how deadly the conflict was, and how many years it had been dragging on.
I see they are in their fourth edition now and in print for what, forty years? (I had the original, 1985, edition.)
We forget how much work it is to make peace. The European Union: A multi-decade project to integrate polities that had been at war for centuries. Today we say "What a nice, prosperous place!" But that isn’t how it felt for 90% of the past few hundred years.
The Middle East, appendage of so many empires over the centuries, is, today, in a hot war. I am confident that the fatality rate this decade is far lower than that of earlier conflicts. I haven’t measured. In conversation I find myself acknowledging over and over that what is happening now is neither: A surprise; Exceptionally cruel; or, Remarkably fatal.
What is it that Tom Robbins says, several times, about the "international situation"?
Desperate, as usual.
(C.f. Even Cowgirls Get The Blues)
Street View
The destruction in the Tel Aviv / Jaffa area is real. A woman in the army yesterday didn't go to work. "My building was hit, I have no office to go to work in." (This appears to be the singular accurate Iranian missile, which hit an office building at the IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv.) A residential street about a mile from my Tel Aviv apartment is shredded:
Jerusalem is quiet. Most of the "early warnings" here are not followed by an actual alert. We went to a different neighborhood shelter this morning. It has a wifi access point, but no one knew the password. It was friendly. These shelters are like riding the bus, but there are more dogs to play with. Also the driver doesn’t lurch around.
Generally.
Jerusalem continues to be quiet. Folks yawn a lot ("pre warnings" at three in the morning and again at 10:20AM). The falafel stand half a block away an hour ago:
All that said, there are 24+ killed in Israel and 600+ injured so far. The Israeli government decided to proceed with the attack on Iran based on an a projection of 800-4,000 Israeli civilian deaths and many thousand injured.
This decision was not taken lightly. By anyone (most of whom are professionals, not politicians).
America and Iran, v2
In #185 I introduced my proposal of why U.S. military involvement was a bad idea. The following duplicates and expands those thoughts.
I hold that American involvement is a mistake at several levels:
The good cop/bad cop being played for the months prior to June 13 was clear to all players: The U.S. was the address for a negotiated settlement. Israel was, sooner or later, going to preempt an Iranian bomb. This allowed the U.S. to remain the good guy--something it lacks a record of in this region.
Anti-American hatred was a major component of Iran's 1979 revolution (that brought the Ayatollahs to power). Why strengthen the hand of the Ayatollahs by putting American aggression back into the mix? Keeping the U.S. in the good guy seat is the only way to diffuse the foundational anti-Americanism in Iranian political thought.
See the "Clocks" section below. Then continue.
There is a fundamental mismatch between the death cults of Iran and Israel/The West: Iran’s theocrats truly believe that if they die in the process of killing Israelis or Americans that they go to heaven. Iran’s theocrats further believe, deeply, that this world is not the desirable place to live: Heaven is. This means that no contract/deal is going to meet their needs. Military force in this situation was always inevitable if the Ayatollahs were to be stopped.
Again, keeping the U.S. out of the picture, militarily, is the most attractive way to give an alternative Iranian reality an offramp from the conflict.
Further, speaking to Israelis, recall:
America either lost outright or made a hash of its every effort in the Middle East. (C.f. Iran, circa 1953; Lebanon, circa 1982-83; Afghanistan, 2003-2018+; Iraq, 2003-2018+. Even food aid to Gaza didn't work out in 2024.);
When it engages a perceived threat militarily, America, with some regularity, achieves the inverse of what it desires. Examples include Vietnam (which, thanks to America's extended involvement, ended up with no domestic polity left to compete with the Communists), Cambodia (let's skip the horrid details), Iraq (which ended up being a net gain for Iran and a net loss for everyone else) and Afghanistan (ditto)
The region's perception of Israel's power is enhanced when it acts alone and is diluted when it depends on others;
If Israel can't/couldn't solve Fordow on its own, it's rationale for attacking to begin with was flawed;
Not everything can be solved with bombers, American or Israeli.
The lack of "offramp" vision is distressing. This applies to Gaza and Iran. (To be fair, there was solid vision in this regard vis-a-vis Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria, which was, in fact, achieved.)
The WWII "unconditional surrender" model has occurred very few times since 1900. Heck, I suspect a history of war would show it to be rare. Conflicts typically end when the parties are exhausted or the landscape changes in some material way. Hezbollah in Lebanon claims to “still be in the game” but for now, they are clearly defeated and on the sideline.
The latest reports indicate that Israel is open to ending the war with Iran.
It takes two to tango…
Mail
Facebook
Don't Confuse:
People of the Rising Lion [name of the war against Iran]
Are our pilots, intelligence officers and the Mossad.
Not our pathetic government and its supporters.
A Hacker News Thread about Bombing Iran's Nuclear Program
(Not mail to Raf, but of interest)
[MAD--Mutually Assured Destruction--the theory behind the detente of the Cold War--does not apply to Iran.]
Mutual destruction [as an incentive to use nuclear weapons] makes sense when you're a death cult and the enemy is evil. Iran nuking Israel knowing full well they will get nuked back IS rational if your [Iran's] belief is that Allah will reward you for it in the afterlife and they do sincerely believe that.
You should read books published by reformed Islamists. Radical by Maajid Nawaz is a good one.
They profess to believe (and they are sincere) that they will be rewarded for dying killing Israelis. There's a reason that if I tell you a story about a suicide bomber blowing up a public square in political protest you do not have to wonder what religion they are. It's not because all Muslims are insane, they aren't, it's because some of them have beliefs that make that action rational.
(For example, see how Hamas will not surrender even when offered free passage out of Gaza. They'd rather Israel grind their way through the Palestinian population bomb by bomb because they think every Palestinian killed goes to heaven. If they were rational as we understand the world, they'd realize their plight is hopeless and the only thing they ensure by staying is civilian deaths.)
Dept of The Invisible
Items invisible in the Western media. (Now combined with the Postmark concept, to help consolidate topics by locale.)
Iran
The sequence today has been... different.
Iran launches a barrage
Khamenei posts this image:
The punishment continues
The Zionist enemy made a big mistake and committed a great crime.
He must be punished, he is being punished now...
A few minutes later, the Iranian news agency IRNA published an interesting statement: "The 21st wave of launches as part of Operation "Promise of Truth 3" did not take place at all, and the missile that triggered the alert in Israel was launched from Yemen."
This seems is strange, and contrary to other available information. Is it out of shame, that Iran didn't want to take responsibility for launching a single missile that was intercepted?
Iranian military leaders (first the spokesman for "Khatam al-Anbiya" [the supreme Iranian body that manages the war in Iran] and then Iran's Chief of Staff) issue public threats against the U.S.
Then an apparent change in Iran's launch tactics: Multiple volleys of just a few launches each (four in thirty minutes this morning, totaling 10-15 missiles). The direct result - more time in protected areas. No injuries reported so far today. About 8,000 people in Israel's south lost power as a result of a near-miss on an electrical substation.
A view of one of these missiles from the ground in Israel:
(Note, every driver you see here had a loud alert on their phones to stay near a shelter ten or fifteen minutes prior to this impact.)
The IDF hit some targets in Tehran today, including an entrance to the infamous Evin Prison. Security camera footage:
(Think for a moment... who in Iran would release this footage?)
Clocks in NYC & Tehran
Did you know that both NYC and Tehran have clocks that don't tell you the time?
NYC has the National Debt Clock that reminds everyone of the Federal budget deficit.
Tehran has the "Days until destruction of Israel" clock:
On January 3, 2021, The Iranian parliament announced a bill to eliminate Israel by 2041
Below: A picture of the countdown clock in Tehran (it’s in Farsi and counts down to 2040):
This clock was reportedly targeted in an IDF strike today.
Gaza
Aid Trucks
Enter every day. At a materially higher rate than in May. (As the Western press reports, yes?) And along with that, a material percentage are looted. From the data surfaced to Raf (which covers a minority of the looted trucks) this looting happens before the trucks fall into the hands of Hamas.
Above: Trucks with food packages from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates entered the Strip through Zikim (northern Gaza) and were looted halfway along the way.
Below: The looting of aid trucks that entered the northern Gaza Strip from the Zikim area today.
(Raf assumes that aid in the Zikim area means that it came in through the Erez crossing. Note [as the "pro Palestinian" activists deliberately choose not to mention] that Egypt continues to block aid from coming into the south of the Gaza Strip.)
At the same time as the looting above, distribution of food packages through the ["controversial"] American GHF foundation continues.
Tunnels
IDF Brigade 401 forces destroyed several underground tunnels with a total length of more than 2.5 kilometers in the Jabaliya village area.
As mentioned, it is thought that less than half of Hamas' tunnels in Gaza have been found.
Israel
Transit Prices
Folks at least 67 years old may ride free, but the public has had two price hikes so far in the past 12 months. The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Transportation just announced that the third price hike, scheduled to go into effect this week, will not occur.
That said, friends are sure that a big hit to the pocketbook is coming. The war with Iran has a cost. As does the ongoing combat in Gaza. Cuts to social programs and the "safety net" are certain.
Flights and Floats
Ben Gurion airport has started to reopen. Last week, inbound flights started so that Israelis stuck abroad could return. Today, outbound flights have restarted, on a restricted basis for the time being.
Sailboat passage to and from Cyprus continues, in a kind of "Israeli Dunkirk."
IDF Spokesperson
דובר צה״ל:
בשעות האחרונות מופצות שמועות לא נכונות על חילוץ חטופים.
צה"ל מבקש מהציבור להישמע להודעות הגורמים הרשמיים בלבד ולהימנע מהפצת שמועות כוזבות אשר פוגעות במשפחות החטופים ובציבור.
המאמצים להשבת החטופים ממשיכים בכל העת.
In recent hours, false rumors have been circulating about the rescue of kidnapped people.
The IDF asks the public to listen only to the announcements of official authorities and to refrain from spreading false rumors that harm the families of the kidnapped people and the public.
Efforts to return the kidnapped people continue at all times.
The Polin-Goldbergs
The hostages do not have bomb shelters.
Relief Area
Alef: Rare footage of decision-makers in the IDF bunker last night after the attack
(From a Hebrew language channel.)
Bet
(From a Hebrew language channel.)
Gimmel
(Non fiction from social media. Does she perchance have an American college degree?)
Dalet: Chat between Iran and Hezbollah
Iran: We have a shortage of workers for the tonight's shift
Hezbollah: Crazy! I hope you find some [workers]
Iran: A little assistance would really help us
Hezbollah: Really? I hope you find [the help you need]
Hey: Gelato Flavors
White Chocolate with Strawberries
Halvah Pistachio Cream
Interception fragments
Vav
Zayin: Haifa
[Poking fun at the wild pigs who are known to inhabit parts of Haifa.]
Chet: Attack Type and Food Option
(Left to right)
Drone: 9 Hours -- Make Slow Stew (Hamin)
Cruise Missile: 2 Hours -- Make matbucha
Ballistic Missile: 12 Minutes -- Make an omelet Sandwich
Tet: Hebrew Slang 101
The Hebrew phrase in this sticker, "אני מת עליכם" literally means "I'm dead on you," but it's a slang expression meaning "I love you guys" or "I'm crazy about you." Think of the English: “I’d die for that/her/him.” In this case, we mean the former.
(M.R.)
I am going to get my evening together. That means making some dinner with Adina, watching a movie, and a read aloud book (Skinny Legs and All at the moment).
And, if I am half smart, in bed and asleep at an improved hour.
To Peace,
Raf
(Thank you A.K., M.T., R.G., M.R.)