First Time Here? Readers suggest starting with the expanded Gaza Explainer in #133 and #120.
Top Ten IsRafOK Entries: #85; #123; #128; #140; #144; #154; #161; #162; #164; #171
Tags: 8 Min Read; Relief
The Home Front has reopened! All restrictions dropped! Schools open tomorrow (Wednesday).
The sights through today:
An underground parking lot:
I went shopping today. Household stuff: A toolbox. A fan. The hardware store has Channel 14 (Israeli Fox News) running, upstairs and down. "Bibistim?" "No, Ben Gvirim. Well, not sure." "So, 'on the spectrum'?" "Yeah, I suppose."
Home Front guidelines have flip flopped. When the Iran war started, it was "zero gatherings" and only essential workplaces. A few days in, gatherings up to 30 were allowed. Then with the American strike it was back to zero. That said, pizza, falafel, shawarma and almost all cafes were open at all times.
Today, while we are still in a "zero" regime, I noticed that the big shopping center nearby was open. And every store (furniture, appliances, hardware etc.) on the streets near the shopping center was open and some quite busy.
What ever.
But, when you think about it, the stats are humbling. Below from the Center for Quality in Israeli Government (an NGO):
28 citizens killed in the war (four of them this morning, June 24, as the initial ceasefire was going into effect), most of them were not in safe rooms.
More than half of apartments in the country lack safe rooms.
In Bat Yam, more than 90% of apartments lack safe rooms.
In Jerusalem, more than 84%.
The government passed a law several years ago to invest in shelters and safe rooms and … did nothing about it. Ergo the lobbying from the Quality in Governing guys.
Clips from the Home Front Command and Marom Brigade (this is the team that is sent to natural disasters around the world)
In the hardware store today, a couple of these guys, armed and in uniform, were purchasing demolition tools.
Dept of The Invisible
Items invisible in the Western media. (Now combined with the Postmark concept, to help consolidate topics by locale.)
Iran
The Iranians are celebrating a "divine victory" in Revolution Square in Tehran.
Gaza
Aid Trucks
10% more aid (in tons) entered Gaza in three weeks of June compared to all of May. This appears to mean that June will end up 20% or more ahead of May. I thought it was coming in higher. Based on available information, there are still some number of stocked food warehouses in Gaza. Hamas, and the merchant community [taxed and controlled by Hamas] have stockpiled months of food.
Unrelated to this blog, I found myself looking at Yemen’s hunger data. Yemen has more children in a state of acute starvation than the entire population of Gaza. (Yemen lacks a dedicated U.N. agency and isn't the recipient of hundreds of trucks of donated food every week.)
Dr. Shikaki's Latest Poll
Dr. Shikaki, the most prominent of Palestinian pollsters, has been here before, in #138, #135 and #136.
The summary from the just published poll (quoted from the document):
Favorability of the October 7 attack, the belief that Hamas will win the war, and support for Hamas continue to decline, but the overwhelming majority is opposed to Hamas disarmament and does not believe that release of the hostages will bring an end to the war. Nonetheless, about half of Gazans support the anti- Hamas demonstrations and almost half want to leave the Gaza Strip if they could. Support for the two-state solution remains unchanged but support for armed struggle drops
I find it takes effort to see what this report is saying. One thing to keep in mind is that the above aggregates the data of the West Bank and Gaza, where in a number of domains sentiments materially diverge.
For example, the line above: "Support for Hamas’ decision to launch the October the 7th offensive continues to decline."
The detail (emphasis Raf's):
For the fifth time since October 7, we asked respondents from the West Bank and the Gaza Strip what they thought of Hamas' decision to launch the October 7 attack, whether it was correct or incorrect: 50%, compared to 54% seven months ago, in September 2024, and 71% 14 months ago, in March 2024, said it was the right decision. The decrease in this percentage came from the West Bank and Gaza Strip, where it stands today at 59% in the West Bank, a decrease of 5 percentage points, and 38% in the Gaza Strip, compared to 39% seven months ago.
In other words, a majority of those polled in the West Bank hold that the October 7 attacks were correct but a minority of those in Gaza hold that way.
I find that delta material.
Here is a graph from the report to which I added crude trend lines and other clarifying highlights:
Other findings of interest (from Raf's chair) from Gazan respondents:
Do you have sufficient food for a day or two? 53% said Yes. About in the middle of four such polls over the war.
When asked if Hamas had committed the atrocities seen in the October 7 videos: 87% said it did not. (This appears to be a measure of Gazan-only opinion.)
The vast majority want President Abbas (of the P.A.) to resign.
When asked who they would vote for, after the war, in Gaza the top two are Marwan Barghouti and a Hamas leader (with a Hamas leader tops in the latest poll), where in the West Bank, Marwan Barghouti polls #1.
The full survey is on the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research web site (alternate link to PDF).
About that second bullet above: This is an example of people not living in the same world. The world I live in is a world where Hamas (and Iran’s Ayatollahs) are a death cult whose actions match their words.
That appears not to be true for the vast majority of Gazans.
Israel
The streets got busier within an hour of the ceasefire announcement. Everyone is ready to get "Back to normal." The grind of Gaza has faded. Now it will probably come back.
And, as of just now (8:00 PM Jerusalem time), all the home front restrictions have been lifted. Schools are expected to be open tomorrow. And everything else.
Relief Area
Alef: That Honor/Pride Thing (non fiction)
June 24: Hamas, which usually rushes to respond to every event, has still not published a statement regarding the Iranian attack on the base in Qatar.
The situation in which Iran attacked Qatar [Iran’s retaliation for the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities] created a "bug in the system" for the person drafting Hamas's statements... they haven't managed to overcome it - and ignored the attack while the entire Middle East responded to it.
June 24: A Gazan on social media suggests to Hamas a winning wording: We condemn the blessed attack by Iran on Qatar.
Bet: A Bakery in Central Israel
“A bakery in central Israel.
“The siren rings close to closing time. The workers run to find safety. When the siren is over they simply go home. They thought they had locked up and it was already after closing time.
“The next day they decided not to open. Time to catch their breaths. But they were “open,” as they had mistakenly not locked the door when they ran to the bunker.
“People from the neighborhood came by the next day for food. They found the door open. But there were no workers. They needed food but wanted to pay.
“So, one after another people wrote down their name, phone number, and what they took on a napkin.
“The owners and workers were stunned to come the next day and what they found on the napkins matched exactly what was now missing from the bakery!”
Gimmel: The Ten People You’ll Meet in Your Bomb Shelter
The Miluimnik on a Break
Still in uniform, still sweating, still radiating “I’ve seen things.” He ducks into the shelter with a half-eaten laffa, a cigarette behind one ear, a bottle of Goldstar, and WhatsApp groups pinging non-stop.
Somehow, he’s calm. Somehow, he has WiFi. Somehow, he knows exactly what’s happening everywhere. You feel safer just being near him. He also knows a guy who can fix your car.The Woman Yelling at Her Mother on the Phone
She burst in mid-siren, holding her sandals in one hand and screaming,
“IMA, I TOLD YOU TO GET INTO THE SHELTER. NO, NOW. STOP FEEDING THE CAT AND GO!”
You don’t know her, but you know her.
At some point, she offers you Bissli.The Start-Up Guy Who Will Definitely Monetize This
Already sketching an app idea called “BoomSafe” that matches you with your ideal shelter buddies.
Has three phones, a laptop, and a protein bar.
Says things like, “What if sirens, but social?”
He also tried to network with the Iron Dome onceThe Savta [grandmother] with the Tupperware
Didn’t flinch at the siren. Brought rugelach. Maybe schnitzel. Also hot soup - kubbe, obv — which she poured into actual bowls from her giant bag.
“You’re too skinny. Eat.”
You comply. You are now part of her extended family. You will be invited to Seder. You will go.Tomer from Tinder
He spotted her the moment she walked in — sweaty, breathless, radiant in her war-time glow.
“You ok?” he asks, tender hand lightly brushing her elbow. “You looked scared.”
Offers her a sip of his water. Offers her his number. Offers her healing.
He’s here to help. He has emotions. And abs. And a guitar. Probably.
[Tomer is the generic name for Israeli guys hitting on visiting women]The Dude Who Definitely Heard the Boom
Every five seconds:
“Did you hear that? That one was close.”
Keeps sticking his head out the door like he’s got a death wish. Or a podcast.
Suddenly an expert in acoustics and ballistics.
“That was Iron Dome. No wait—direct hit. No wait—I think that was a door slamming.”The Oleh Chadash with Fire in His Veins
Made aliyah from Brooklyn three weeks ago on purpose.
“This is exactly why I came,” he says, eyes blazing like Ben-Gurion in a hoodie.
He’s already posted three rants about Jewish destiny on Twitter (fine, X) and volunteers to take out the trash and check for shrapnel.
Keeps humming , “Am Yisrael Chai” under his breath. Definitely wants to go halfsies on an iHerb order. Says Bibi is his boy.The Guy Livestreaming to His Followers
He’s on Instagram Live. Ring light plugged into a portable battery.
“Hey guys! Day 12 in the bomb shelter, Tel Aviv vibes still strong! Don’t forget to like and donate to my coffee fund.”
Will definitely sell merch after this is over. Already is.The Philosopher with the Tiny Chair
He’s always there first, sitting calmly in the one adult-sized plastic chair.
Quotes Kierkegaard and Yehuda Amichai mid-siren.
Wants to know how you feel about the absurdity of life.
May offer you a date (the fruit, not the invitation). May also be homeless. Or a professor. Possibly both.The Teen Who Knows Exactly When It’s Safe
Headphones on. Eyes rolling. Texting six people while scrolling TikTok and explaining the Home Front Command app to everyone else.
“Sheket, guys. It’s a false alarm in Tel Aviv. But there was a real one in Sderot.”
This kid is 15, has trauma baked in, and will one day run this country. Probably better than the current government.
Dalet
Jews are piling up in Cyprus and the government does not allow them to immigrate to Israel.
Hey - Bisli, Israel's Snack
Vav
Right to left:
Circle
Smaller circle
Arrow
Zayin - Top to Bottom
Time until ceasefire
Ballistic missile
Iran
(As there were falling missiles this morning after the ceasefire was "in effect." Iran claims they were launched before the ceasefire came into effect. Raf thinks: The order was given before... and then...)
Chet: Documentation of selection process for positions in the Iranian army
Not Chief of Staff... Not Chief of Staff...
(As the last two were killed within the past two weeks.)
Tet: Dahieh neighborhood, Beirut (Hezbollah stronghold)
The Israeli-Arab work crew is wrapping up for the day. I didn't need to feed them today. One crew loves the food, water and coffee we serve. The other does not consume a drop or bite of anything we offer. The second crew does much higher quality work.
Coincidence?
Now that the 12 days of war with Iran is over, we “get” to worry about Gaza and Israeli hostages?
To Peace,
Raf
(Thank you A.K., M.T., R.G.)