Is Raf OK? -- Installment #247
2026-03-30 -- Tel Aviv
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Read This Entry, #247, in Web Browser
First Time Here? Readers suggest starting with the expanded Gaza Explainer in #133 and #120.
Top Eleven IsRafOK Entries: All Time Most Viral: #234; Second Most Viral: #237; #85; #123; #128; #140; #144; #154; #161; #164; #196
Tags: 12 Min Read; Analysis; Mail; Relief!
Thank you, readers, for questions, comments, observations and pushback. Punches need not be pulled. (Survival in the Middle East means knowing there are several core perspectives on reality. Some of those perspectives kill you, or the gal sitting next you. You know they are there.)
Thanks to Achinoam Nini:
The war’s impact on civilian air traffic (from The Economist):
(As 1,000’s of flights--even tens of thousands--have been cancelled--with several airports in the Middle East effectively closed due to Iranian strikes--net flight hours are down hugely—reducing the environmental impact of the war?)
On Those Intelligence Services:
Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib writes:
Another Intelligence Failure? It is concerning that the United States’ sprawling and expansive Intelligence Community (IC) may have misjudged the capabilities and capacity of a significant adversary like the Islamic Republic of Iran to be resilient and continue to present a serious threat to the US and its critical allies in the Gulf. In recent years, much has been written about the IC’s failures, including overestimating the Afghan government’s and army’s ability to fight and hold out against the Taliban in 2021, and underestimating the Ukrainians ability to fight back against the Russian invasion in 2022. This, in addition to failing to anticipate Hamas’s deadly 2023 October 7th attack that got many Americans killed or kidnapped, the failure to see the incoming Arab Spring in 2011, the inability to forecast the Iraqi Army’s collapse against ISIS in 2014, or the 2003 Iraq WMD fiasco, has cumulatively cast doubt about US intelligence capabilities in leveraging vast and unmatched resources to provide decision-makers with the best information and analysis to preserve America’s edge in a complicated world.
Now, it appears that the IC underestimated Iran’s ability to stay in the fight and failed to appreciate Tehran’s capabilities and battle plans, which have caused severe damage to US bases, Gulf allies’ infrastructures and economies, the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, and the ability of the regime to maintain a firm grip on power throughout the country. President Trump himself, whether or not he’s accurate, said that we didn’t know Iran would lash out and hit back this way. While the regime has indeed been badly weakened by multiple military measures, the Islamic Republic of Iran still has a vast stockpile that can cause serious damage. It appears capable of administering a state and a military effort, however asymmetric, a month into a ferocious war that eliminated much of the country’s leadership and conventional power. More importantly, the IC has assessed that in the early 2000s, the Islamic Republic stopped the pursuit of nuclear weapons and has not had a weapons program since. In light of the repeated failures over the past two decades, can these assessments be trusted? Or is the US intelligence community once again rolling the dice on one of the most dangerous regimes possessing one of the world’s most destructive weapons?
I am surprised Mr. Alkhatib goes sideways like this. Let’s unpack a tad:
The IC screws up all the time. It didn’t see the imminent demise of the Soviet Bloc, for goodness sake.
Everyone knew Iran would close the Straight of Hormuz. Everyone. (Iran had mine laying boats right there for many years.)
Attacks on Gulf Countries... that is unexpected. I consider this a sign of a regime in its death throes. Those countries will be the Iranian regime’s biggest enemies. Until death do them part.
Iran’s nuclear weapons: No country puts it’s nuclear program under a bomb proof mountain if it’s peaceful. No country kicks out inspectors if it’s peaceful. No country takes its Uranium to 60% (as Iran is confirmed to have done) if it’s peaceful. No country has a research program on weaponization, ever, if it’s peaceful. And no country builds an offensive mobile ballistic missile array—complete with domestic missile factory supply chain—if it’s peaceful.
So, Mr. Alkhatib, please both be real and refrain from muddying perfectly clear water. The most profound question that the IC may have misjudged is the likelihood of the Iranian regime falling. [Raf note: The critique that, “The next leaders may be more extreme” is not, to Raf’s eyes, a critique. Those leaders may be more brutal to Iranians, but they are likely to reduce their regional ambitions after this punishment. Such a regime would also be smaller and more brittle. That is a result everyone benefits from, at least over time.]
Haaretz:
Over 140 people were wounded on Saturday night – including a 12-year-old boy and a 5-year-old girl, both of whom are in serious condition – after Israel’s air defenses failed to intercept missiles fired by Iran at southern Israel. A mass-casualty event was declared, and the IDF tightened public safety guidelines across the south, shuttering schools and limiting public gatherings to 50 people. Iranian missile fire continued into Sunday, wounding multiple people in at least six impact sites across the Tel Aviv area following cluster missile strikes, including at least one person seriously.
I just returned to Tel Aviv yesterday after a month in Jerusalem. Buildings have been destroyed by Iranian missiles. The stories are... humbling:
My employee came out of the shelter to see her apartment building demolished. Nothing left. She and her kid stayed with me for a few days until we could get them an apartment. A couple days later, another missile hit the exact same spot. Know who was killed? The guy guarding the demolished building against looters and squatters.
Mail
Iran War Covering Saudi Takeover of American Media?
Raf, have you seen that the Iran war is being used as a cover for Saudi control over CNN and other American media (via the Paramount acquisition of Warner Bros/Discovery)? -M.E.
No, but I cannot say it surprises me. My cousin M.A. says “Are elections really elections when a billionaire has Twitter as a mouthpiece?”
I read the analysis you sent, and thought, “Another day, another billionaire owning a media empire.”
That it is oil money should not be a surprise. #230 in January discussed Charlie Stross’ analysis that essentially all of today’s wars are artifacts of the “old” oil empire hanging on for dear life in the face of the renewable tipping point. Acquiring the means to power (media) is consistent with that effort.
While I don’t love billionaires buying media mouthpieces, we are in the middle (end?) of this trend, right?
Hasn’t the “ship” of corrupt media sailed long ago?
What I mean by this is that media, generally, morphed into billionaire-mouthpieces decades ago already, right? “We” all said--for how many decades?--that Fox was/is a mouthpiece for Rupert Murdoch. That their old “fair and balanced” motto was a perversion, right? During Trump I, a close friend of mine said of the New York Times, “First, they effectively elected Trump both by covering him so much and by choosing not to understand the game he was playing. Now everything they write is motivated by their Trump hate. It just isn’t useful journalism anymore.”
It has long been discussed that the Fourth Estate (The Press) merged with the Fifth (opinion). The Fourth Estate’s “job” was to keep power accountable by giving the public visibility into what was going on. We can argue whether that function washed away in 1998 or 2018, but I expect we can agree that it’s largely gone in the 2020’s.
Social media (which is, I think, outside both the Fourth and Fifth Estate concepts) is the driver of the decade. On TikTok, a single child casualty can look/impact the same as a thousand. TikTok is still controlled by Chinese interests?
So the whole “Aaaaack!” about a Saudi king (prince?) running CNN... I have to ask: Is that actually a material change? (It will be a change, and material to what CNN does and does not cover, but will it actually degrade discourse more than is already the case, considering that social-media-fueled Gen Z’s are growing into government leadership roles and don’t watch CNN?)
Not to minimize the hazards. Watch CNN become an oil industry mouthpiece that only says glowing things about Saudi Arabia. (Rights of women? probably a banned topic as well--wouldn’t want to inspire uncomfortable questions.) We have seen this before... in that little laboratory in the Middle East...
Israel is a small, small place (about the size and population of New Jersey). For nearly two decades there is a free newspaper here, Israel Hayom (Israel Today). It was launched by an American conservative (Sheldon Adelson, a Vegas magnate). He funded it for years. It has a visible effect on the Israeli landscape, and it didn’t cost Adelson much. It may well be responsible for Bibi’s last few electoral victories.
From the analysis you sent:
Nobody hands MBS a board seat at the parent company of CNN if a million people are watching; they’ll do it if nobody is.
I would like to think that is true, but I suspect it is not. I doubt any number of eyes matter when a country’s leadership is self serving, not “the people” serving. And, from my chair: Is it materially different if Larry Ellison controls it or Larry Ellison + MBS?
Those options, in my eyes, are both broken.
In #246, What did you mean: But flights to Amman are not restricted…? - M.T.
I mean there are lots of flights in and out of Amman. There is no restriction on number of passengers per flight. (For reference, for several days already Ben Gurion is limited to one flight per hour. Inbound flights may have any number of passengers but outbound flights are limited to 50--down from 120 earlier in the war.)
Amman is so hopping that Royal Jordanian Airline is offering a discounted rate for U.S. citizens to depart via Queen Alia Airport in Amman, Jordan.
Dept of The Invisible
Items invisible/less-visible in the Western media. (Starts to the north of Israel and goes, clockwise, around the region, ending up in Gaza and then Israel. Not all countries appear in every entry.)
Lebanon
The IDF moves north in Lebanon. The Iranian ambassador, who was expelled by the Lebanese government, says he simply won’t leave. (What does that spell? Hint: Failed state.)
Below: Soldiers of IDF’s Givati unit give a tour of how Hezbollah turned a hilltop church in al-Khiyam--just five kilometers from the border with Israel--into a firing position.
Below: IDF Spokesperson in Arabic explains how serious Hezbollah’s exploitation of the church compound in Al-Khiam👆 is for terrorist activity. Arabic w/English subs (subs by Abu Ali Express)
A subsequent warning from the IDF Spokesperson in Arabic: Hezbollah is using ambulances and medical centers for military activity. If this does not stop, international law allows these sites to be targeted as military facilities.
The IDF has reached the Litani river--the traditional limit of IDF incursion into Lebanon.
Syria
As seen in the skies of Syria... Israeli combat aircraft lining up “at the pump” (an aerial refueling plane)
And, in a new twist... Syrian authorities announced two days ago the discovery of Hezbollah weapons smuggling tunnels from Syria to Lebanon. [This would never have happened in the Assad years because Assad was a Hezbollah ally.]
Today they released video footage:
Iran
Crazy of the Day: Iran lowers military age to 12
(Farsi w/Hebrew subs)
The Iranian opposition site Iran International considers this authentic:
An official from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said the minimum age for participation in war-related support roles has been lowered to 12, according to remarks aired on state media. (This is the clip above.)
Below: A recruiting poster for this initiative:
Propaganda Dept
Arabic channels are reportedly flooded with posts quoting IDF Chief of Staff Zamir: “The IDF is about to collapse.”
One example:
Failed Launches...
Posted March 27:
What Is Going On?
Over the past week, the IDF has targeted a number of Iranian leaders. The evidence for this is when a specific apartment in a building is attacked.
But the IDF typically does not announce the name of the target for days or weeks.
I observe that Iranian opposition sources often name names in the hours after such attacks.
Gulf Region
Saudi Arabia
Ukraine and Saudi Arabia just signed a military cooperation agreement. Zelensky was actually in Riyadh to sign it. (Blows Raf away.) Zelensky also traveled to the UAE and Doha and signed a similar agreement with Qatar.
Yemen
Has started firing rockets at Israel again. Took them a month. Another sign that Iran is in dire straights.
Gaza
Morality, Hard Choices, Propaganda
For decades, Israel has had a challenging calculus: Violent terrorists who have killed are sentenced to prison. Then Hamas and Hezbollah kidnap Israelis to negotiate their release. When Israelis are held hostage, Israeli society is convulsed: Sit-ins, demands for the State to pay any price to release the hostages. Israeli leadership is stuck in a supremely problematic place.
Ugly all around.
And a horrible cycle (over 100 of the Palestinian prisoners released in the October deal with Hamas have been rearrested (and some number killed in action in Gaza after rejoining Hamas).
During times of peace, voices in Israel, not all right wing, have called for Israeli law to be changed to allow for the death penalty in egregious cases. The point of the exercise is to remove the incentive to kidnap Israelis.
Such a change has been moving through the Knesset for some months. It is heading toward its final readings.
The surprise is Hamas’ reaction.
Hamas has been lobbying against this change already for a year. Now, with the movement of the law, there is a loud howl. Hamas has been running a hysterical social media campaign, on various channels, calling to “stop the law before it’s too late”
According to Hamas, this is a “dangerous, terrorist law, with severe consequences and contrary to international law.”
Some say: When Hamas invokes international law, you may be doing something right.
What Goes Around?
When Israel releases prisoners to get hostages released, there are terms. One is that the released prisoners may never be part of a military again (essentially go to civilian life and not carry a gun again). Over the past three years, there are, it appears, hundreds cases of this agreement being violated.
Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib Reports On Gaza:
While the world has been rightfully focused on the war with Iran and its implications, Hamas in Gaza continues to re-establish its complete and firm grip on power, control, and all aspects of life in the destroyed, shrunken, and besieged coastal enclave. Inside the “red zone” that the terror organization controls, there are dozens of checkpoints set up by Hamas’s governmental police, as well as the group’s al-Qassam Brigades – covering the entirety of the Strip’s north-to-south travel axes. Whatever the Board of Peace and its executive committee and the technocratic committee of Palestinians (NCAG) had planned, it’s hard to imagine anything dislodging Hamas’s firm fascist and violent grip on 2 million people in Gaza. While Hamas is severely weakened and a mere shell of its former self, it still has access to sprawling tunnels, and it has reorganized & re-established its hierarchical structures.
Hamas has millions of civilians to use as perpetual human shields in a Jihadi, suicidal project that is willing to finish Gaza off, not unlike Hitler’s last stand in Berlin in 1945, when the Soviets wiped out the city to end the Third Reich. The war with Iran has served Hamas in Gaza by reducing international focus and scrutiny on its growing and expanding influence and control.
West Bank
Several Iranian rockets have come down. Mostly after interceptions, but not all (like the rest of the region). Below: March 26 in the village of Beitin--northeast of the Ramallah district.
Social media channels identified with the Palestinian Authority report 14 impacts on March 26 in the Ramallah and Al-Bireh districts.
Below: An Iranian missile came down on March 28 in the village of Deir Ballut near Salfit:
Israel
An Iranian missile blew a hole in the road of the Israeli Arab town of Kafr Qasim. Israeli opposition leader Yair Golan (Labor/Democrats) visited the site on March 26.
תנועה חוזרים בתבונה - The Return to Reason Movement
Beware! Brainwashing ahead! (over a Chabad logo)
On this topic, we invited some friends over for Friday night dinner. They couldn’t come because they have “adopted” a guy who left the ultra Orthodox movement and is very shy. Twenty years old, he is ashamed that he has no basic education and is missing so many topics.
Relief Area
Alef - About That Miracle in Dimona (#246)
Poster: Destroyer of Israel
Caption: Unbelievable! An Iranian rocket came down in Habima Square and only this one picture survived!
Bet
Rate the War:
- (Sad) I do not have a safe room
- (Medium) There is a shelter in the building’s basement
- (Happy) I have a safe room in my apartment/home
Dramatized in the video below in Hey.
Gimmel - Non Fiction
Tracking the World Happiness Ratings - problems in the “Anglosphere:”
Dalet - You’re leaving?
Hey - Eretz Nehederet
Comparing life in older/poorer neighborhoods. Two sisters think of each other during a siren. A dramatic take on the theme in Bet above. (Apologies, did not have time to do English subs, but the visuals tell the story...)
Vav
Zayin
Chet - Only Bibi!
Only Bibi!
King Bibi!
It’s healthy! [to drink urine—a belief held by some new agers]
He takes care of us!
Tet
Right: Employees: Holiday gift cards
Left: Self employed: Bill to pay for state benefits
Yod - Yohay Sponder
Chaf
(Elizabeth Tsurkov is the woman held prisoner for years by Iran-aligned forces in Iraq.)
Lammed - Noga Erez, Grammarian
The Israeli who raps in English:
(This blog votes Yes Noga: #11, #163, #170 and others)
Mem - Geography
Litani River: East-West river in Lebanon, goal of current IDF effort to push Hezbollah away from the border with Israel.
Caspian Sea: Iran borders the Caspian.
Nun - Eretz Nehederet on The Just Passed Budget
(Eretz Nehederet is the satire show, Israel’s Saturday Night Live. 3 Minutes. Hebrew w/English subs by Raf)
Samech
Top: The Likud in the eyes of Bibistim [Bibi fanatics]
Bottom: The Likud in reality
It is nice to be back in my place. During the day, most everything is open, though there is very little traffic. Problem is... if there is a siren, cafe customers fill the shelters and there is insufficient room for residents.
Some pics from my day:
Line at the 9 shekel (US$3) falafel:
Pay As You Wish store on King George:
Cartwheels in the park:
Pre-Passover-Pizza last night (yes, it is as good as it looks!):
To Peace. And a better Iran,
Raf
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Read This Entry, #247, in Web Browser
(Thank you A.K., M.T., R.G.)