First Time Here? Readers suggest starting with the expanded Gaza Explainer in #133 and #120.
Top Ten IsRafOK Entries: #85; #123; #128; #140; #144; #154; #161; #162; #164; #171
Tags: 8 Min Read; Largest ever Relief (I think! My fave this week: Dalet!)
Hours after I published #183 about the "pre-warnings," Israel's Home Front Command changed the protocol. The 20+ minute warnings are over. A new seven to ten minute warning system is now the thing. In Jerusalem it was used this morning.
Ack!
The good news is that I think there is a reason: Iran's launch capabilities are so degraded that they only launch a few at a time. The interception rate of these small barrages is quite high.
In other words: The situation is not as critical.
After four days.
In other reports, the IDF announced that in about two weeks they will be done with major airstrikes in Iran.
The above was written, and then an Iranian missile hit a hospital in Ber Sheva. Thanks to preparation, casualties were, relatively, modest--several people injured (the building impacted had been evacuated the day before). The wing of the hospital, however, is toast.
Listening: Two Podcast Episodes:
Karim Sadjapour's understanding of Iranian internals is refreshing. I heard him on #361 of the Call Me Back podcast. (This podcast is short, around 30 minutes.)
I find the perspective of Sarah McBride (first openly trans member of the U.S. Congress) to "say it all" when it comes to how political discourse on the Left currently dis/functions. I heard her interviewed by Ezra Klein. (Longer, about 90 minutes.) Transcript on line here (30+ pages of text) or the PDF here. While the interview (at least the first hour) does not mention the Middle East, the dynamics of discourse are, in my experience, 100% applicable.
About That Media
I read Matti Friedman's book The Aleppo Codex years ago. Great book! I missed that he was a reporter for the AP for several years. On that topic:
One of his observations about the AP,
the agency had more than 40 staffers covering Israel and the Palestinian territories. That was significantly more news staff than the AP had in China, Russia, or India, or in all of the 50 countries of sub-Saharan Africa combined. It was higher than the total number of news-gathering employees in all the countries where the uprisings of the "Arab Spring" eventually erupted. [...] I don’t mean to pick on the AP—the agency is wholly average, which makes it useful as an example. The big players in the news business practice groupthink, and these staffing arrangements were reflected across the herd.
I find this visible in all kinds of ways. For example today's New York Times home page:
One headline is unqualified. The other names a source "Israel Says." The tilt is loud and clear.
The Iran War...
Each Day Is ... Quieter...
A graph by Aryeh Eisenman showing the number of Iranian missiles launched in each barrage.
This explains the decision to ease restrictions approved by the Home Front Command starting at 18:00.
The Iranian missile threat is decreasing as time progresses. The elimination of the launchers is achieving results.
Military Correspondent Doron Kadosh: Iran launched about 400 ballistic missiles [so far] - more than 20 of which hit built-up areas and caused damage or casualties (meaning about 5% of the ballistic missiles were effective).
In addition, the Iranians launched about 1,000 UAVs into Israeli territory - less than 200 crossed into Israeli territory, but none were effective: They did not cause any damage in Israel.
Below: With the Home Front Command's easing of restrictions coming into effect, the gates to the area of the Dome of the Rock are opening for the first time in 6 days.
Iran Can't Aim
Early in the Gaza war, a reader (M.T.) wrote to effect: "Hamas has no shelters for their own civilians and no aim [on the rockets it launches at Israel]." Iranian missiles appear to suffer poor aim as well. The "hits" they score appear to often be by chance.
This morning, an Iranian missile hit the Saroka hospital in Beer Sheva. Amazingly, the casualty count is relatively low. Watch how this plays out in the media:
Official Iranian media: Soroka Hospital was not attacked. It was only damaged by the blast wave. We attacked the military facility next to it.
Iranian-regime-aligned social media then published this infographic:
Unofficial channels affiliated with the Iranian axis justify the attack on Soroka Hospital this morning and published an AI model in which tanks are seen parked in underground infrastructure beneath the hospital.
This is nonsense. There are zero IDF facilities or weapons storage under Israeli hospitals. The point here is how they present the matter (imitating the IDF spokesperson's models about terrorist infrastructure under hospitals in the Gaza Strip, for example the European Hospital in Khan Yunis, where Muhammad Sinwar was killed).
A headline:
Tel Aviv vs. Tehran: This Is Netanyahu's War, but He Won't Decide Its Outcome
A possible outcome… a long, dragged out war where the Islamic Republic never surrenders and is never overthrown. Precedents: Iran-Iraq war, duration: 8 years; U.S. in Iraq 2003+, duration: 10+ years; Syrian civil war, duration: 10+ years; Gaza, 2023-2025+.
Something that comes up a lot is the concept of projection. I want a war to end, I then think the adversary thinks as I think. I think Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza should have a state. Is that something they even want?
I think when Iran is out of missiles, the regime is over. Or the war is over.
What does the regime think?
Banks
Iranian sources report that all branches of banks in Tehran and other cities are closed - citizens cannot withdraw their money.
Internet
It is reported, independently and confirmed by Iranian official channels, that the internet has been turned off in Iran. The official channels say this is to thwart cyber attacks. Unofficial channels say it is to stymie political unrest.
Both can be true...
One result: Far fewer posts and videos coming from Iran. Reportedly there is a 90% drop in Iranian posts to social media and the like.
Iranian TV
Hacking
Channels identified with the Iranian opposition report that hackers have taken control of various television channels in Iran (including that of the IRIB network) and broadcast messages calling on the Iranian public to take to the streets and rise up against the regime.
Official News
Iranian vehicles disguised and used to store attack drones/UAVs intended for targets of the Iranian regime. The vehicle in the video was seized in Alborz Province, which is west of Tehran Province. It appears they were too late, and the vehicle is empty of drones...
Historical Reference
Below: From a few years ago: The Supreme Leader of Iran explains the meaning of the chants shouted by Iranians – "Death to America."
Dept of The Invisible
Items invisible in the Western media. (Now combined with the Postmark concept, to help consolidate topics by locale.)
Syria
Daraa province in southern Syria seems to be awash in Iranian drone parts.
Iran
IDF Infographic RE Ballistic Missile Launchers
Iran downs Israeli Hermes UAV
Iranian official media: "Iranian air defense systems shot down an Israeli Hermes 900 in the Isfahan area"
Below: Western Isfahan: Iranians boast about the new "loot" they captured – a fuel tank jettisoned by an Israeli fighter jet.
There is also a report from Hamadan Province in western Iran that Iran shot down another Israeli UAV. I am increasingly confident that the IDF is operating an airbase within Iran.
Israel
Life in Wartime
Israeli Arab Muslim woman runs for shelter.
Into a synagogue.
Flights out for tourists:
Tourism Ministry says it will help tourists seeking to leave Israel via special flights
Raf prediction: By the time tourists are actually flying home, this will be over.
Gaza
The Palestinian Ministry of Health (Hamas) in Gaza has been inflating the number of casualties in recent days:
140 killed and 560 wounded in the Strip in the past 24 hours.
These numbers do not correspond to events on the ground. It appears the numbers are being pumped in an effort to get Gaza back in the headlines.
Dozens of food aid trucks are entering Gaza each day. The pace for June, based on publicly available data, looks to be 30-60% more than May.
Relief Area
Alef
Bet: Israeli News...
With a student of the damaged school:
Reporter: How does this feel?
Student: Strange. I always wanted to destroy my school, but now...
Gimmel: To Whom Does "We' Refer To?
(Non fiction)
Dalet: Khamenei in his bunker...
The meme goblet runneth over… (as my mother would say). English subs by Raf, translated from the Hebrew (this was running around the internet, don’t know who did the Hebrew… This scene is of Bruno Ganz in the film Downfall.)
Hey: He's Right, For Once
(This guy is a pro-Russian American agitator who calls himself an "American conservative Marxist-Leninist." Some call him “The most popular American anti-Semite on the internet.” He goes to Yemen and posts promos with the Houthis. And so much more.)
Vav
Zayin: Fired IDF Spokesperson Hagari
Keeps showing up in memes. He became known to all in the mess and defeat of the Gaza war.
Spokesperson Daniel Hagari is returned to his position.
Chet: Social Media...
Gawd, either a Russian bot or someone conditioned by Russian bots...
Tet
Student: We are all going to die!
Teacher: That is the seventh time this year that "we were all going to die..."
Yod
He's Back: Daniel Hagari drafted as IDF Spokesperson
The former spokesperson of the IDF has "drafted anew" in the context of the war with Iran
(Hagari — at the heart of the meme-machine!)
Chaf
The famous King of Missiles
Royal order demanding my death
The Executive Authority
My fucking ears (in bed)
Lammed
Speaking of false flags…
Responses:
I refuse to believe someone could be so retarded as to believe this. I refuse.
If you aren't up to date: Ramat Gan has been occupied by the [Iranian] Revolutionary Guards
Israel hit the nuclear reactor in Ramat Gan? Just don't forget the main government building in Petach Tikvah!
The government is finally doing something about Ramat Gan...
Mem
Come on Donald, join the fight!
Nun: The Protocols, 2025 Edition
(Did I ever tell you about having the Protocols told over to me by a guy, a surgeon no less, in Russia? The guy quoted chapter and verse... and reached for a book on the subject to show me... then I told him I was Jewish. He apologized and changed the subject. Actually happened. And, in most of the world, an unremarkable event. Pyatigorsk, USSR, circa 1990.)
Samech
Bomb a hospital
Accuse Israel of bombing hospitals
Iran
Ayin
Captain Palestine
Pay
Select all images with the Chief Rabbi of Israel
(Mix of images of the Sephardic Chief Rabbi of Israel and Iranian Ayatolah Ali Khamenei)
Tzade
Kuf: Driver transporting a shelter used it when the siren sounded
Resh
Shin
(Putin, Khamenei and Assad in Red Square, Moscow)
Tav
Tav +1
Well, the Relief section is hitting capacity (the Hebrew alphabet has only 22 letters!). Time to publish.
Ben Gurion airport is partly open. At the moment only for flights repatriating Israelis. The operating concern: Avoiding crowds at the airport. Only a couple of flights per hour are allowed to land. Folks are whisked through the airport and out to a parking lot.
I would guess that it continue to open incrementally over the coming days. On the docks of Haifa and other coastal towns, owners of sail boats are doing a booming business ferrying people to and from Cyprus. It's a 20- or 30-hour sail (I understand). Others are coming and going via the Amman airport and crossing in and out of Israel by land. A cousin went that way yesterday. Spent 3-4 hours at the border crossing. The Amman airport has flights coming and going, but on a reduced schedule.
The airspace between Israel and Iran is busy.
Here in Jerusalem, it continues to be relatively quiet. Everyone has heard about the Iron Dome “כיפת ברזל“ system that Israel uses for defense against “dumb” rockets from Gaza. In Jerusalem, we have the “Dome of Stone” - כיפת הסלע - the Dome of the Rock. Yes, there is an alert or two. Yes, the booms are quite loud (just below glass breaking threshold in most cases).
To Peace,
Raf
(Thank you A.K., M.T., S.D., M.R.)