First Time Here? Readers suggest starting with the expanded Gaza Explainer in #133 and #120.
Tags: 9 Min Read; Jumbo Relief Area
Happy Hanukah!
The weather has been nice. Then it got windy. Then it got nice. Now it is pouring. Not fun to be in a tent or tunnel right now.
Earlier today, walking home:
Dept of The Invisible & Postmarks
Items invisible in the Western media. (Now combined with the Postmark concept, to help consolidate topics by locale.)
Yemen
From the Yemen Front: Clashes Renewed Between Houthis and the Legitimate Yemeni Government
Arab media report clashes resumed last night in northern Taizz Province area in Yemen between the Houthis and the legitimate government, backed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Taizz Governorate lies along control boundaries, shown in the attached 2020 map - green for Houthis, red for the legitimate government.
American MQ9 Drones
Since the war began, the Houthis have shot down more than ten American drones of this type. The estimated cost of each is about $30 million.
Iran
In Trouble…
The Iranian regime is in trouble. Some data points:
The loss of billions invested in supporting Hezbollah, Assad (in Syria) and Hamas.
The mirrored lack of investment in domestic infrastructure.
Energy crisis, in a country that is loaded with oil: The Iranian president has been forced to appeal to residents and beg them to lower the temperature in their homes by several degrees to save energy. Schools and government offices are closed some weekdays to save energy during the winter months.
Member of Iran's Supreme Council for Employment announces:
50% of production capacity in Iran's industrial cities was cut due to power outages.
Power plants have been closed, as have industrial plants. There are electricity problems in summer and winter, as well as a problem with the supply of gas to industry. (Got that? Electrical generation plants are unable to run due to insufficient supply of natural gas, in a country loaded with natural gas.)
Most Iranians are poor and, as a result, susceptible to energy prices. In the recent past, rising gasoline prices brought protesters to the streets and ignited a wave of riots in which gas stations and government institutions were set on fire. According to companies in the fuel sector in Iran, a price increase is near. Iranian sources report that government institutions have been instructed to prepare for a "state of instability" in the country - that is, a wave of demonstrations.
The Iranian currency is collapsing and inflation is soaring. The Iranian rial reached an all-time low last week: 800,000 rials to one US dollar. At the end of April, 2023 Iranian currency was trading at 500,000 rials to one dollar. The Iranian currency dropped 16% since the fall of the Assad regime--that's just 3 weeks ago.
With Iran and Syria stripped of anti-aircraft systems, attacks by Israel and/or the U.S. are more likely than ever.
Also, recall that much of Iran's stature in the region was built on propaganda from the Shiite Axis (Iran’s own leaders, Nasrallah’s eloquent speeches, Hezbollah’s apparent military might). This messaging was always empty. Now everyone knows.
(Adapted from Abu Ali Express)
In Action
The Iranian government spokeswoman announced December 24 that Iran is in diplomatic talks to reopen the Iranian embassy in Damascus and the Syrian embassy in Tehran, and that the parties are ready for this.
But...
A source in the Syria's leadership denied to the "Almudun" website that such talks are in progress, adding that Syria is preparing documents for a lawsuit for $300 billion against Iran - compensation for the damages caused to the Syrian people. The lawsuit will be submitted to international courts.
Another hollow Iranian posture?
Street Names
In #157 I mentioned the Iranian Opposition naming a Tehran street for Netanyahu. Now this:
Tehran, Iran: After local resistance to changing the name of Bistoun Street to Sinwar Street, the municipality has decided not to proceed with the change.
It seems they are trying to find a different street to rename.
(Side note: If you like action television, try the series Tehran.)
Syria
Did you know that many border crossings between Syria and Lebanon have been controlled, for decades, by Palestinian jihadists?
Yup.
Over the past two weeks, the Lebanese Army has been taking over these checkpoints, and finding large stashes of arms (like Israel keeps finding in Southern Lebanon).
Evacuation of Palestinian Outposts in Lebanon and New Syrian Checkpoints – Changing Reality on the Syria-Lebanon Border
Recent days saw the evacuation of Palestinian militia outposts in Lebanese territory near the Syrian border, handed over to the Lebanese Army.
Today (December 24), Syrian sources reported the new regime in Syria has set up checkpoints in al-Zabadani, an area under Hezbollah control since 2016.
These moves are linked, disrupting another supply route for the "Axis of Resistance" as Assad's regime weakens and Lebanese terror groups lose ground following Israeli strikes and the Lebanese ceasefire.
Historically, the five evacuated Palestinian outposts (four PFLP, one Fatah Intifada) were linked to Assad’s regime, under Palestinian control since before the 1980s, fortified during the 1982 Lebanon War, and used for arms and supply lines since.
This week, the Lebanese Army asserted control.
And we wonder how Lebanon became such a mess...
Syrian Network for Human Rights:
Even after all prisoners were released from the Assad regime’s prisons, the fate of 112,414 people remains unknown. (They "disappeared" during the Assad regime.)
Lebanon
IDF Spokesperson: Over 85,000 weapons and military equipment were seized in southern Lebanon by IDF forces:
Approximately 6,840 RPG launchers, rockets, and anti-tank missiles.
About 9,000 explosive devices and other explosive weapons.
Around 60,800 communication devices, electronic equipment, computers, and documents.
Approximately 2,250 mortar shells and trajectory missiles.
About 2,700 rifles.
Approximately 2,860 additional weaponry items.
Around 300 observation tools and binoculars.
About 60 anti-aircraft missiles.
20 vehicles.
This does not count the hundreds, or thousands, of rockets and other ordnance destroyed from the air....
Gaza
Why didn't the Gaza war end in January 2024? Or June? Or September?
Because Hamas refuses to surrender.
I observed a few days ago: Palestinian propaganda of Genocide and Israelis as Nazis is primarily targeted at themselves. It creates some fellow travelers, but the main target of this message is Palestinians vulnerable to extremism.
This vilification flows into the posture found in their charter, written 35 years ago: Only Muslims should be allowed to live in this region. They acted on the principles of their propaganda and charter on October 7 when they killed people of all ages, religions and ethnicity.
Hamas may fight to the last Palestinian. That is consistent with their propaganda and charter.
That is their strategy so far.
Aid
December 24: The UN Food and Agriculture Organization: 23 of the 66 aid trucks that entered the Gaza Strip on Sunday through the Kerem Shalom crossing were robbed. [Either they were robbed by Hamas itself or in reaction to the control Hamas has over food aid.]
Anas al-Sharif: Al-Jazeera's lead reporter in northern Gaza
Who is also a member of Hamas' military wing... he offers us a glimpse into reality. When he speaks of "you" he refers to Hamas leadership.
After initially denying that the above recording was his voice, he acknowledged it and then posted:
"The war must end immediately.
We are allowing bloody destruction that spares no one.
We do not want what happened in the northern Gaza Strip to be repeated in Gaza City.
All of Gaza is drowning in sadness, loss, oppression, and pain in the face of the world's abandonment and silence.
Tens of thousands of dead, wounded and missing, thousands of orphans and widows filled with pain - even those who thought they had survived quickly realized that their homes had been reduced to rubble.I swear we die from the cold and the winds when we are in the tents.
God, heal our broken hearts, ease this suffering for us, equip us with patience and strength to endure this trial that is beyond our strength."
West Bank
Remember many months ago when Israel kicked Al Jazeera out of the country, due to its role in spreading incitement from Gaza?
Well, the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank feels the same way:
Palestinian media outlets report that the Fatah movement, headed by Abu Mazen, has decided to prevent Al-Jazeera from operating in the West Bank, due to the nature of its coverage of the PA's activities against armed terrorists in the Jenin RC in recent weeks.
The battle between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas/Islamic Jihad continues in Jenin. There continue to be casualties, including, now, a female Palestinian journalist, shot by one side or the other (there is a spat over whose bullet killed her).
Coast of Spain
A Russian cargo ship en route to Syria to evacuate military equipment sank off the coast of Spain.
The Russian news agency Taas announced December 24 that the ship Ursa Major sank after an explosion that occurred in the ship's engine room.
14 of the 16 crew members were evacuated to Spain. Two are still missing. In 2022, the US imposed sanctions on the ship because it transferred weapons from Russia to the Assad army in Syria.
The ship, equipped with extremely large cranes, was scheduled to arrive in Syria in the coming days to load heavy military equipment from Russian bases in Syria. (Full article in The Guardian.)
Relief Area
Alef
Good Morning: A soldier’s moment of loyalty.
Bet
On the right are the file numbers of the various long running criminal cases against Bibi. They are named “File 1000” “File 2000” etc. They involve bribery, quid-pro-quo deals, etc.
On the left is the crime of having/allowing October 7 to happen on his watch.
Gimmel
I have two pieces of news, one good and one bad.
The good news: The tyrant fell.
The bad news: It happened only in Syria.
[E.g. Not also here in Israel.]
Dalet
(Refers to the [inane] need of the "pro-Palestinian" movement to define Jesus-and many other things-as Palestinian.)
Hey
(On the right: The Druze... and their flag, which looks very LGBTQ ish, but is its own thing.)
Vav
Haredim [Ultra Orthodox] who say: We will die before we draft [into the army] when I explain that it is also possible to die if they draft.
Zayin
Tripoli, Lebanon (a city with a Sunni majority): Walk around in “Bashar Assad” socks... (The print is on the part that is stepped on - to humiliate Assad).
Chet
The Palestinian Authority goes to war against Hamas [actually happening in the West Bank for many weeks now].
Struke and Smotrich [right wing Jewish Israeli extremists]: How dare you!
Tet
Hanukah greetings from... an Israeli defense company... that makes anti-missile systems (among others).
Greeting my youngest, who is here for a visit, I reviewed where we go in the event of a red alert. There have been five or more in the past two weeks here in Tel Aviv. In the wee hours of the morning. "Did any of them hit the ground?" I was asked. Two actually did. "What about Iron Dome?" Well, it ain't perfect and the current issue is ballistic missiles from Yemen, not dumb rockets from Gaza. Different animal. (And usually intercepted, fwiw, by that American THAD system.) In the case of the two that hit the ground, one was a result of a system failure and the other was a partial interception that missed the warhead. (Per the IDF.)
I include the concept of "gratitude to defense companies" as dark humor: It's kinda sick--no, it's just sick--that this is a reasonable thing to be grateful for. (‘Cause we don’t want to teach our kids war any more.)
Yod
Hanukkah menorah on top of LPG cooking gas canisters. Actually, they shouldn't be leaking, so I am not sure this is as dangerous as it feels....
(Yes, Israel has a large natural gas field in the Mediterranean. However, like the rest of the region, Israel does not have centralized natural gas distribution. Homes and apartments, including mine, have a pair of LPG cans outside, just for the stove. Unless the house has converted to induction--a growing trend.)
Lamed
Chof
Mem
Nun -- The meme
This is the meme behind Relief Gimmel in #156. It is from Breaking Bad (a great series!).
The wars drag on. People die. A Jerusalemite soldier was killed yesterday in Gaza. Member of the kehilla I attend.
To Peace,
Raf
(Thank you A.K., M.T., R.G.)