First Time Here? Readers suggest starting with the expanded Gaza Explainer in #133 and #120.
Tags: 10 Min Read; Relief!
I can’t speak to the economy at large, but I do see: Lots of students attending graduate programs of various kinds and new coffee stands opening here and there. To say nothing of construction everywhere.
The trains run, largely on time. The bus drivers are as maniacal as ever. And if your car gets blacklisted at a public parking lot, good luck getting off the list! (I’m trying, I’m trying!)
As seen in Tel Aviv last week:
Russian aphorism applicable to Syria:
“It is easier to turn an aquarium into fish soup, then to turn fish soup into an aquarium.”
(Thank you Thomas Friedman--his list of thoughts are here, PDF, 2 pages)
Introduction
German Foreign Ministry: The attitude of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham organization [the main Syrian rebel faction] towards the minorities in Syria will determine our position towards it.
My feelings as well.
Irony
"It's ironic enough that Yahya Sinwar, late Hamas head, set off a chain of events that ended in the liberation not of Palestine, but of Syria. It would be twice as ironic if the same ripples ended up rehabilitating Netanyahu as a 'worthy' statesman and leader – domestically, at least"
– Esther Solomon, Haaretz
Mail
Hey, Raf,
You are really subject to the Irish blessing of "May you live in interesting times...."
In my watching all the celebrations in Syria and in Syrian communities elsewhere (including here in Chicago), I just find myself thinking that I know they are mostly overjoyed to be out from under the Assads, but only time will tell if they haven't replaced a cruel secular dictatorship with a cruel Islamist dictatorship. The history of the rebels is not something that bodes well for the people of Syria, or Israel for that matter, but we will have to wait and see. al-Golani [rebel leader] said the right things after overrunning Damascus, but actions speak louder than words. I remember the Israelis kind of staying out of any real aspect of the civil war, on the thought that the devil you know is better than the devil you don't know... And as I watched the little video clip of the flatbed with the coffins, the only thing I could really think was "what a colossal waste of lives". In another world, or another time, these dead men might have been professionals, businessmen, productive members of their society, fathers, husbands, but they chose murder, mayhem and "resistance" instead (resistance to what? a non-existent occupation?). And now they have nothing and are nothing.
In other comments, I loved the point about no Christmas music. I thoroughly enjoyed that aspect of living there, like a breath of fresh air. No music, no ads hawking one gift after another, no fake cheer that would disappear right after the holiday, etc.
The 2009-2024 photos were amazing. And they explain why I cannot find my way around any longer when I am there! Jerusalem is the same way, in some ways incomprehensively altered (not always for the better). As the pool at TAU? Spectacular (what can I say - I am a swimmer!).
Dept of The Invisible
Items invisible in the Western media.
Kurdistan
American sources: Kurdish SDF forces--an American supported faction--accidentally downed a US MQ-9 drone two days ago in northern Syria.
It was likely shot down using American-made weapons... Another day, another $30 million... (estimated cost of this model drone)
The New Syria
A map... that I hope stays stable for days or weeks...
Green - The Rebels
Yellow - the Kurds
Red - (Assad regime) no more!The border between green and yellow in the area of Al-Mayadin, Deir ez-Zur, and Al Bukhamal is actually the route of the Euphrates River - a natural border.
The rebels are trying to deepen their hold at the expense of Kurdish territories. The rebels’ Turkish sponsor, Erdogan, aims to expand the Green Zones throughout the area that sits on the Syria-Turkey border. He wants to keep the Kurds away from there. [Recall that the Turkish state has long been at war with Kurdish independence.]
According to Mazloum Abdi, commander of the SDF, the US-backed Kurdish organization is trying to reach a ceasefire with the rebels in order to preserve the current situation "peacefully."
Residents of the Kurdish-controlled city of a-Raqqa (near Tabqa), are expressing grave concern about the conflict reaching them. Abdi is trying to reassure them that he is working on a peaceful solution...
Damascus: Yarmouk neighborhood (A Palestinian district)
Not the Gaza Strip, but it is a Palestinian neighborhood...
It is the Palestinian neighborhood of Yarmouk RC in Damascus.
The Assad regime destroyed it with the help of its allied militias during the Syrian civil war.
It has been like this for more than seven years. In the past, 160,000 Palestinians lived there, today only a few thousand.
Turkish Defense Minister
Turkey is ready to assist Syria with military training if required by the new government.
Above: The Syrian rebels distance themselves from Hamas.
Obeida Arnaout, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham spokesperson, responded to a journalist's question about whether what the rebels did in Aleppo is similar to what happened on October 7:
His answer: "I challenge anyone to show a single piece of evidence that we harmed a [civilian]. The instructions from the leadership were clear: Do not harm anyone. [Other than Assad's army.]"
Above: The narrator behind the camera: "So, Abu Aliman, where are you headed today?"
Abu Aliman: "I want to go to Qardahah to shit on Hafez al-Assad’s grave and come back."
Narrator: "Allahu Akbar! Shit on it for us too."
Abu Aliman has a smile worth three million Syrian liras.
Below: Syrian rebels have discovered a massive and wide tunnel in the al-Qutayfah area, about 40 kilometers northeast of Damascus.
Al-Qutayfah is located approximately 20 kilometers from the Lebanese border. It is unclear whether the tunnel crosses into Lebanese territory, but its clearly large enough to facilitate the transfer of missiles and heavy weaponry, as shown in the below video.
Assad's Former Army
On the one hand, the IDF has been attacking the hardware of the Syrian military non stop since Assad fell. On the other, I understand there to be a shortage of ordinance... (A growing portion of ordinance is sourced from India in recent months.) Between the three year war in Ukraine and coming on one and a half years here, the world is short on bombs.
Military correspondent Doron Kadosh in an interesting update [December 13] on IDF actions in Syria and possible role this could have in an attack on Iran:
Open a route to Iran: The Air Force is concluding the operation to destroy Assad's military hardware. According to estimates - 86% of the Syrian air defense system has been destroyed. This means: Syria, which in the past posed a significant threat to Air Force planes due to the threats of anti-aircraft missiles, is now safer and there is open airspace for flight paths to Iran.
Following the recent developments in the Middle East, the IDF believes that there is now an opportunity to attack the nuclear facilities in Iran.
The various security organizations - including the IDF - are now carrying out a preparation process between broad, intelligence and operational organizations, in order to present the political echelon with the capabilities and the option of choosing whether to carry out an attack on the nuclear facilities.
Syrian air defenses, which were the densest in the world: They have fired hundreds of times at Israeli planes in recent years. The Israeli Air Force focused on the two most advanced systems - the SA-17 (according to estimates, 80% were destroyed) and the SA-22 array (86% of which were destroyed).
In addition, 90% of the MiG-29 aircraft and approximately 80% of the Sukhoi-24 aircraft of the Assad army were destroyed (a total of 61% damage to the Syrian Air Force).
Syrian Druze
Above: Residents of the Druze village of Hader in Syria demand annexation to Israel
Above is footage from a gathering of residents from the Druze village of Hader, located mostly in Syrian territory beyond the eastern UNDOF Bravo ceasefire line.
During the well-attended gathering, the Druze residents declared that they would prefer to be part of Israel, fearing potential developments and instability in the village and region following the rise of the Islamist Sunni rebels to power. To quote the speaker in the video - joining Israel is "a much lesser evil then the evil coming our way".
The participants claimed they were speaking not only on behalf of the residents of Hader but also on behalf of all the residents of the region.
The above clip apparently received much larger-than-expected attention on social media, and was followed by village elders denying it:
This evening, the "spiritual authority" in the village (in the attached video) published a proclamation in which it noted the video from this morning and expressed a position opposing it.
The spiritual authority claimed that it was in favor of a "united Syria" and that this was the traditional and constant position of the villagers, and that it was the legal position and that any other position was null and void.
A rock and a hard place... Or as one commentator wrote:
On the one hand, you can see the desire of the Druze in Hader, and on the other, the fear.
The Chaos of Revolution
Reuters: Russia suspends wheat supplies to Syria due to financial uncertainty.
Ukrainian Minister of Agriculture: We are ready to supply wheat to Syria.
IDF Spokesperson in Arabic
The IDF spokesperson in Arabic published the following clip today, the 37th anniversary of Hamas's founding:
"Every beginning has an end..."
There have also been leaflets and other messaging in Gaza with the message: Hamas is over.
Postmark
Israel
For the first time since the start of the war, indictments were filed Monday in an Israeli court against Hamas militants from Gaza involved in the attack of October 7. The militants are accused of being members of a terror organization and planning attacks in Israel against civilians and security forces.
West Bank
Further to the exchange of fire among Palestinian factions mentioned in #155:
Palestinian Authority police said on Monday [December 9] that five people – three Palestinian Authority police officers and a married Palestinian couple – were wounded in a car explosion near the police station in the West Bank city of Jenin. P.A. police added that the incident marks an escalation in the conflict between Palestinian security forces and armed individuals in Jenin and in the nearby refugee camp.
And:
This week, the Palestinian Authority's security forces began operating with a relatively heavy hand against militants in Jenin.
The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights in response:
We call on the Palestinian Authority to investigate the conduct of its security forces in Jenin.
We call on the Palestinian Authority to prosecute those responsible for the widespread human rights violations in Jenin.
The actions of the Palestinian Authority's security forces raise concerns about rights violations and unlawful killings.
Is the U.N. cursed by the Paradox of Tolerance?
Syria
It took the rebels 11 days to liberate Syria from the rule of Bashar Assad. 13 years after the civil war started.
Homs and Damascus were liberated almost without a fight.
The Shiite crescent is broken. The most important link for the Shia axis - Syria - is no more. The continental continuum from Iran to Lebanon is broken.
A flavor of Al Queda now rules Syria
Below: Assad's soldiers in Damascus stripped off their uniforms and left them on the road.
Below: The Syrian people inside Bashar Assad's presidential palace in Damascus.
Below: Jerusalem, Dome of the Rock: Distribution of sweets late at night following the liberation of Syrian cities from the Assad regime.
The Rebels' Official Statement on Assad's Chemical Weapons
The rebels have issued an official statement regarding the chemical weapons of Assad's regime, announcing their full willingness to cooperate with international entities on this matter.
They assure that they will not allow such weapons to fall into irresponsible hands and emphasize that the use of such weapons, as carried out by Assad's regime, goes against their religious beliefs.
There are a lot of videos on social media of Assad's men being executed by the Syrian rebels.
A lot of cruelty.
Munich, Germany
Syrian refugees from the Syrian Civil War celebrate the fall of Assad.
Relief Area
Alef: The new flag of Assad's Syria...
For reference, Syria's actual flag is below:
Bet: Does the Syrian rebel leader look like Sacha Baron Cohen?
I recall a photo, 20 years or more ago, of a radical, terror inciting imam in Gaza. He looked just like my rosh kollel cousin.
We're all semites.
Gimmel: Somewhere in Hell... Assad & Sinwaar
Update 2024-12-30: For the video version, which makes the Breaking Bad reference clearer, see #158.
We had a good thing in the Middle East you idiot bastard. We had Hezbollah. We had Hamas. We had everything we needed! Everything was going like clockwork! If you could have kept your mouth shut and waited we would have destroyed Israel together when the right time came. But you needed to blow it all up with your pride and ego.
Dalet:
The IDF on the way to Mount Hermon after the fall of Assad
Hey
Desire to end the campaign in the North and send the soldiers home.
The masculine instinct to capture more Syrian territory and enlarge Israel
Me
Vav: Noga (Israeli Rap Star who mostly sings in English)
(A big hit of hers from four years ago.)
Chet
Tet: Syria
A tank once used by Assad's forces is now repurposed by a local vegetable vendor to display his goods.
"They shall beat their swords into plowshares, and their spears into pruning hooks" — Syrian edition.
I like tanks as produce stands. That works for me. In synagogue the guy next to me has an M16 under his chair. He’s home for the weekend from reserve duty. Across from Adina’s house is this:
And next to my gym is this:
The Thai Ambassador to Israel was just rotated out. The departing Ambassador remarked: Why are our nationals still being held in a conflict with which they have nothing to do?
I ask: Why is hostage taking of any kind part of this conflict?
The sporting good store nearby is moving to a mall farther away.
Small troubles.
To Peace,
Raf
(Thank you A.K., M.T., S.D.)