First Time Here? Readers suggest starting with the expanded Gaza Explainer in #133 and #120.
Tags: 8 Min Read; Mail! Relief!
Updates: Post email release, Relief Dalet and Hey had text updates. Some formatting fixes were made to other paragraphs.
Mail
S.D. Writes RE: Lebanese Arms
The amount of materiel from Lebanon is absolutely astonishing and, as you wrote, does not even take into account what the Israelis have blown up. Does the Lebanese Army have anything of their own?
Relatively speaking, Lebanon is a small economy (Lebanon’s total economy is just four percent — less than one-twentieth — the size of Israel’s and the GDP per capita is eight percent of Israel’s). The Lebanese army has, as far as I know, only light arms and no air force.
Something I learned recently: Beirut and other cities of Lebanon have no air raid sirens or alerting system.
No wonder the announcements of IDF Spokesperson in Arabic were listened to so intently. Lebanon has no system of its own!
And, not surprising any more (sadly), Hezbollah put the Lebanese population in the crossfire. Israel was always going to bomb the weapons Hezbollah stashed in civilian buildings in Beirut (and elsewhere). Hamas and Hezbollah play the same card: The civilian population is one big human shield, the burden of protection transferred to the adversary (Israel).
Quite the “system.”
So here's an idea: Lebanon signs a peace accord with Israel, gets Hezbollah to stay north of the Litani, and then when the Israelis trust them enough, Israel can sell the arms back to Lebanon at a discount. Maybe the Mossad can even do something to the weaponry to make sure that it will misfire if aimed at Israel (beepers 3.0).
Cute?
Syrian rebel leader: Looks Like Zelenski?
In #156 I asked if Syria’s new rebel leader looks like Sacha Baron Cohen. That triggered a response, discussed in #157 that no, the resemblance is to Ukrainian President Zelenski.
Turns out the Zelenski impression is the result of manipulated images, as discussed in this Turkish post. Below is an example of the manipulated image (from that Turkish post), Zelenski on the right. -M.T.
Letter to the Wall Street Journal, December 27, 2024
Glen Schwaber of Jerusalem writes:
Hostage Deal Imminent or Impossible? Social Media Logic
This guy isn't an expert. He is just doing math on what is publicly known/stated:
If there's a hostage deal, that means a ceasefire
If there's a ceasefire, that means Ben Gvir quits the coalition
If Ben Gvir quits the coalition, there's an election
Bibi doesn't want an election
So there can't be a hostage deal unless Ben Gvir supports it
Ben Gvir won't support any hostage deal that results in a ceasefire
The only possible way there's a hostage deal and there isn't an election is if (maybe) Ben Gvir is convinced that he would do worse in an election than he would right now.
Current polling shows (i) the governing coalition losing power and BG losing his ministry but (ii) Ben Gvir's party capturing more of the vote than they did in 2022 and more seats. Ben Gvir's willingness to risk the coalition over funding to his ministry suggests he values staying in Knesset more than the ministry.
So the only way to get a hostage deal is for Ben Gvir to think that quitting the coalition over a hostage deal would lead to Otzma Yehudit falling below the threshold [to get any seats in the Knesset].
(Alternatively Bibi takes an immunity deal in exchange for calling for an election.)
Neither of these things seem terribly likely in the near future.
Below: Excerpt from End the War by Ariel Beery:
The war must end because of three reasons: First, because of the hostages. No hostages were released by Hamas in 2024, and it is believed that far more died in captivity or in tragic operational mistakes than were saved by our forces. Second, because Hamas is willing to fight until the last Palestinian child dies. That is an immoral and unnecessary price to pay, and every additional civilian death is unjustifiable if it does not achieve our war aim of returning the hostages. Last, because the war is harming Israel: it has hollowed our economy, destroyed our international relations, and distracted us from the rebuilding that needs to occur to honor the dead and support the survivors. For Israel to have a future, we need to end the war today.
Dept of The Invisible
Items invisible in the Western media. (Now combined with the Postmark concept, to help consolidate topics by locale.)
Arabic Language Social Media
Kamal Adwan Hospital, Gaza
Above: The photo of the director of Kamal Adwan Hospital in the northern Gaza Strip walking towards an Israeli tank has gone viral on social media. (He was arrested as there was a large armed Hamas force holed up in the hospital.)
This evolved on the internet to:
The above cartoon references the scene, criticizing the silence of Arab countries for turning their backs on the Palestinians.
I would say: Perhaps those Arab countries are saying what has been said many times by Gazans and Palestinians and Anas al-Sharif said in #158: Why didn't Hamas surrender several months ago? A year ago? The IDF isn't going to leave Gaza as long as there are hostages. Possibly as long as Hamas controls the food supply.
Who, what people and organizations, have agency to end the conflict?
Hamas is at the top of the list.
IDF Spokesperson in Arabic Avichay Adraee
IDF spokesperson in Arabic Avichay Adraee addresses the arrogant Hezbollah journalist Ali Mortada in a language he understands... emphasizing:
"Hezbollah's weapons are now in our hands!"
Ali Mortada (not Hussein Mortada) is one of the last Hezbollah-affiliated journalists with an active Twitter account, though he posts much less frequently than before.
(RE Lebanese Hezbollah-affiliated journalist Hussein Mortada: His Twitter, with about 650,000 followers, has been suspended.
Mortada made many enemies in Syria when he mocked, sometimes cruelly, the citizens of Syria during the civil war. He also often expressed hatred against Israel. Now, his wings have been clipped - Twitter was his key propaganda tool.)
Syria: Khmeimim air base
Syria, the entrance to the Khmeimim air base, which is under Russian control:
The rebels are conducting inspections and searches of Russian military vehicles that are attempting to enter the base area.
This is parallel to operations all over Syria. For example, in Damascus a cell was found with Iranian and Hezbollah operatives. They "missed the last train out" and are now in prison.
This continues in Lebanon as well. There have been several incidents involving hundreds of people that sound like this:
Supporters of the Assad regime continue to be persecuted in Lebanon as well: residents of the village of Shams in the Akkar district (the northernmost district in Lebanon, on the border with Syria) seized a minibus carrying 13 Assad officers who had fled from Syria to Lebanon.
Syria: Damascus
Jobar Neighborhood
The head of the Jewish community in Syria visits the ruins of the synagogue in the Jobar neighborhood
Mordechai Tzemach Simantov, the head of the Jewish community in Syria - estimated to consist of only nine people - managed to visit the ruins of the ancient "Eliyahu Hanavi" Synagogue in the Jobar neighborhood of Damascus this week. The synagogue was destroyed by the Assad regime during the civil war.
Simantov expressed hope that it might now be possible to renovate the synagogue with the help of the Jewish diaspora. The few remaining Jews in Syria are hopeful that the new regime will allow freedom of religion.
My understanding is that as late as 1990 there were multiple Jewish communities in Syria of 100+ each (nothing compared to the thousands of Jews in Syria prior to 1960, but still a heartbeat compared to today).
Western Damascus
Drone footage of the Assad family's villas in Yaafour, western Damascus.
Car Collection of Assad’s Brother: 1,300 Cars, est US$1 Billion
2-3 minute tour of the garage, rough English subtitles.
The car collection of Maher al-Assad, brother of ousted President Bashar al-Assad.
Maher Al-Assad was the biggest drug dealer in Syria and his collection includes 1,330 cars. (Recall that drug manufacture and export was an official enterprise of the Assad regime.)
The value of the car collection is estimated at $1 billion.
French Announcement
France: On Sunday (Dec 29), we attacked ISIS targets in Syrian territory.
The Russian military is leaving Syria. The U.S. military has been there for years. The IDF has staked out spots in the old DMZ. And now the French military is taking action. (To say nothing of Turkey.)
Can we spell "goulash?"
Saudi Arabian Aid
Above: Saudi transport planes unloading aid for the new Sunni regime of Syria.
Syria: Transformers... Rebel Militia Edition
Murhaf Abu Qasra (Abu Muhammad al-Julani's friend) received the rank of major general, a haircut, a uniform and a tie, and is now officially the Syrian Minister of Defense.
Lebanon
We are twenty-some days into the initial 60 day phase of the ceasefire. During this phase, Israel has some rights to continue to destroy threats to Israel, and the Lebanese Army is to take control of areas that were previously controlled by Hezbollah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. For example, when Israel identifies Hezbollah arms, rocket launchers, or other threats, it requests that the Lebanese Army destroy the weapons. If this is not done, or if the Lebanese Army does not respond to the request, the IDF does it.
There is a steady stream of IDF attacks and advances. It is considered that Hezbollah is holding its fire because it has been so degraded and has lost its resupply route through Syria.
Below: January 2, 2025 in Kafr Jbaa, Southern Lebanon. Note the secondary explosions (the flashes). (E.g. this was a store of weapons, aparently rockets.)
Below: The stores of Hezbollah weapons just never end... in the past few days the below was seized in the Slouqi area of Lebanon.
Below: A month into the ceasefire, the Lebanese are still recovering the bodies of Hezbollah operatives and bringing them for burial.
Gaza
A Gazan on TikTok:
For almost a year and a half now we've been fighting and all of our produce comes from "Shlomo" (Read: Israel)... I don't get it... What's going on...
Other social media posts, by Hamas affiliated posters, show Hamas militants beating and shooting those who "stole from" the food supply. (Is it possible to steal food that was donated for free-of-charge distribution? In the eyes of Hamas, the answer is Yes.)
A commentator:
In this way, among others, Hamas continues to impose fear and terror on the Gazan population in order to maintain its rule.
Who suffers more, today, from Hamas’ ideology? Gazans or Israelis?
Food
Gazans complain: Frozen chicken entering the Strip from Israel (from the Makor Ha-Of slaughterhouse in Rahat) is sold for 100 Israeli Shekels per kilo in the markets.
a) Yes, as mentioned, the primary currency in Gaza is the Israeli Shekel (symbol: NIS)
b) This is a byproduct of the control Hamas still exerts on the food supply.
I checked the stats, and food aid entering Gaza in December was more than double that of both October and November. That probably doesn’t offset the hassle brought by the rain.
Tufan al-Aqsa -- Al-Aqsa Flood/Storm
Hamas named the October 7 attack "Tufan" -- Arabic for "flood."
The rain of recent days has flooded many tents in Gaza.
In Arabic with rough English subs (better translation in text below):
A Gazan woman complains about what Hamas caused:
What did we do to deserve this?
We want to return to the era of Arafat.
Why did they [Hamas] do this to us?
Did you [Hamas] bring us Jerusalem?
Did we pray in Jerusalem? [Hamas promised Gazans they would all be brought to Jerusalem to pray]
Which (Palestinian) prisoner was released?
What prisoner would see this situation and say: "I want them to release me"? (E.g. Palestinian prisoners themselves would say that the current situation is so bad that they don't want their release to be the excuse for it)
What did you [Hamas] do to us?
May Allah take revenge on you [Hamas].
New York
U.N. Part 1
The United Nations... silent on Hamas, Assad, the war in Yemen, Houthis closing the Suez Canal... but that postage stamp called Israel?
U.N. Part 2
The Chinese representative at the UN: The attacks in the Red Sea must be stopped.
Who makes those attacks? The Houthis in Yemen.
What has been the result?
Something like an 80% drop in traffic through the Suez Canal, forcing enormous amounts of container shipping to go around Africa, which, I understand, adds 10 days each way to the journey. That dramatically reduces the throughput of a container ship (measured in containers-per-year transported). It also is far more expensive (in terms of fuel, crew, environmental impact). It has also driven up the cost of shipping insurance worldwide.
All of these effects have pushed up inflation globally. And... impact China's ability to export.
Postmark
Syria
Relief Area
Note: The contents of the Relief Area may be mockups, photoshop projects, or otherwise not real. Usually they are literal (things seen or said), but often they are memes or derivations of events.
Alef: Ahmed al-Shara'a: Syria's Rebel Leader: What next?
Shiite channels wonder: What additional changes are coming to the style of Syrian Rebel Leader al-Shara'a?
When will we know his metamorphosis is complete?
Bet: As seen in Tel Aviv
(From social media, not seen by Raf.)
Gimmel
(A joke comparing the eating of donuts on Chanukah to when we stop eating bread before Passover.)
Dalet
[I suspect most readers arrived at a conclusion similar to Raf's: This joke works because all that screaming and what Raf calls “over identification” with this one specific conflict (of the many in the Middle East), had the domestic effect of splitting the U.S. left allowing the rise of the populist right that is expected to be authoritarian. The recent history (100+ years) of republic-to-authoritarianism tilts in Western countries is generally built on schisms on the left or center.]
Hey: Prove Me Wrong?
The point? In Israel, an Arab can be secular or traditional, can stay in the village or move to the city, can convert to another religion without state sanction and can take any job even if s/he has no relatives in management. And Muslim women can live any life they want… in Israel.
Vav: How To Save Israel Billions of $
I saw this sign a couple blocks away. It is El Al airlines giving a hundred airline miles for each day of reserve duty served. On the right is 122 days and on the left 330. El Al is no longer a state entity--it was privatized early in the Corona crisis (as I recall).
A falafel stand at the central bus station in Jerusalem:
Dear soldier: Don't stay hungry. If you are short on money ask for Liron or Shalom and they will pay.
I am so ready for the wars to end. There are so many it's unbelievable. (West Bank, Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria.)
To peace,
Raf
(Thank you A.K., M.T., S.D.)