First Time Here? Readers suggest starting with the expanded Gaza Explainer in #133 and #120.
Tags: 12 Min Read; Largest Ever Relief Area; Lots of Raf Analysis
Updated post email release with a few (under 5) small textual changes and emphasis added to the description of the Hezbollah bank. Clarity was added. Meaning was not modified.
Are We Tired Yet?
Something that came up several months ago, in a Thomas Friedman excerpt: An observation that the combat officer corps of the Israeli Army is small. And was, at that point in the war (some months ago, at this writing), exhausted.
Combat operations scaled way back for several months, from the Spring until a month or so ago, and perhaps part of that was to give this group some rest.
How does that look right now?
A few days ago, Adina called a lawyer I worked with. Israeli guy, college age kids. He answered his phone, "Look, I was called up for reserve duty and am in the north. If you still need help in two weeks, give me a call."
A day later, when I went to look up the train schedule, this:
(Got it? Because so many people have been called up for reserve duty, there isn’t enough staff to open several [smaller] train stations.)
Over the holiday, I first heard of a thirty-something who served in the Israeli Navy. He has been called up for a month of ground combat training to be deployed in Lebanon. Another thirty something who had been doing reserve duty as a psychotherapist (he is a psychology graduate student) is now deploying as a combat soldier. To say nothing of lunching with a family with middle school kids, sans father. Dad has spent 250+ days of the past year deployed in combat. (A colonel was just killed in combat in Gaza, the sixth colonel to be killed since October 7.)
So I am going to take a few steps back and think about what is suggested by:
Russo-Ukraine war (mostly the phase that started in February 2022)
In one of her presentations, Ms. Wilf suggests that the essential leadership failure of Israel in this war is lack of vision and principle. She uses WWII as an example: That war was fought until the Nazi and Japanese Imperialist ideologies were defeated. There was never a requirement to conquer land or kill civilians. The goal was for the respective leadership to surrender their ideology (and its concomitant tools of war). The Nazis didn't give up until their entire country was occupied (because their fanatic leadership was scared of Hitler until the end). The Japanese gave up before their island was invaded.
But in both cases, the West (particularly the U.S.) joined battle in order to vanquish the enemy ideologies. Until the enemy itself accepted and signed a document that essentially said, "My ideology and the army that fought for it give up. I abandon my ideology and disband my army."
The fundamental weakness, of both Israeli and U.S. leadership, is not only that victory has not been defined, but that some of the ideas in the air include allowing the ideology to survive. (And, because Bibi funded and collaborated with Hamas, Israeli credibility is not at hand….)
With what are we left?
I suggest we are left with the example of... Ukraine. At a simple level, Ukraine wants Moscow's army off its territory and for the war to end. But, as long as Russia has its current leadership and/or posture, such a peace would be cold. The U.S. is on the fence: Wanting the hot war to end, but a shade unclear on the cold war around it. So, to have it both ways, the West says: "Ukraine, we will send money and guns, but not soldiers, nor will we declare your enemy as our enemy."
So Ukraine fights.
And tires.
And that is one way to see the story Israel features in. Perhaps better matched, militarily, to its adversaries, but worse equipped--relative to both Ukraine and Iran--in terms of leadership quality and moral clarity.
With the Ukraine war nearing the end of its third year, and "This Middle East war" now in its second, I am going to make some guesses:
The Middle East war could drag on for another year or two.
Israel's "leadership" and "diplomacy" could easily lead to materially worse international isolation for Israel[1]
Over a few years, this situation could evolve into two relatively isolated countries (Israel and Iran) fighting each other, largely immune to outside influence (due to isolation [2]).
The counter to this train of thought: I can't see Israel managing another year of combat. I keep thinking that at some point (a month or six in the future), the country says, "We are done with this level of conflict, this burden, let's try something else." [Basically, the point peaceniks arrived at years ago.]
But then I look at the Israeli cabinet, at the kinds of people in it, and I have trouble seeing them ever arriving at such a place.
[1] I originally wrote "poor leadership and diplomacy" but I want to acknowledge that while Raf thinks it is poor, that is a subjective evaluation. Constructive diplomatic relations with the West are not a priority of current Israeli leadership. That's a choice. Raf guesstimates that the recent wave of Western sanctions on elements of the Israeli Right will expand. At a certain point, this could "tip" Israel into essentially raising a middle finger to the West and "going its own way."
This is essentially what happened with Russia and Iran.
What it will mean for Israel, I have no idea.
[2] A factor of isolation that is often overlooked: There are those who would isolate Israel, for example by halting the sale of arms. A side effect of such an act is to lose influence. Whether the trade is worth it, I don’t know.
Mail
That "US Troops in Israel" thing in #145
As for the troops coming from the US to teach and man the missile defense system, and your concerns about US troops on the ground, when the Patriot batteries were sent to Israel in the past, US troops were also sent with them for the same purpose. The troops were never in combat. Israel has never asked for others to fight its battles, and that should certainly hold true for this as well.
and
American soldiers in Middle East is really scary
I do not remember the details of the Patriot batteries. This time, I have not seen a whiff about "training Israelis" to operate the THAAD system. What I have read is that the U.S. troops are part of the system.
The line looks slippery.
Though, to be fair, back in April, four or more countries participated in the defense against the Iranian barrage (Israel, Jordan, the U.S. and the U.K.). Stationing a manned U.S. antimissile system on Israeli soil is not necessarily so different from what happened in April.
The potentially scary part: Is such a move used as part of Iranian/Hezbollah psychological warfare? Iran's ideology lumps the U.S. and Israel (with or without this antimissile system). Is this exploited, one way or another in this way?
About all those Hezbollah weapons in #145
As for the videos of the arms that the Israelis are finding in southern Lebanon and filming for foreign news outlets, I can tell you that I haven't seen any footage of anything like that on any regular broadcast channels here [in the U.S.]. I don't know who they are sending the videos to, but honestly, Raf, why bother showing anything that doesn't fit the current narrative about all the damage Israel is doing to Lebanon...?
The war in Lebanon is not the war in Gaza. The failure of Western media to make this a bright line is ... part of the problem.
The videos I share in this blog are on public social media feeds. And the IDF published clips are on official government feeds. Media blindness to such material is wilful and a result of the successful demonization campaign directed at Israel.
What to do? Send israfok.com to the editor of your local paper?
In #145, Is that supposed to be Sinwar graveside?
Yes.
Funny to say the cheese stands alone about a rat.... Why? Because he's the last man standing.... Deif, Nasrallah, Shukr, Haniyeh, etc...
I guess Mashaal is still out there in Qatar but these guys are running out of terrorists anyone had heard of before October 7
(I had to look up the "cheese stands alone" reference... I grew up on a Jewish farm, we didn't sing that song....)
I am calling because of the scary news...
What we call scary, is... normal/rational?
Iran stocks Hezbollah in Lebanon with over 100,000 rockets and missiles... over many years... not in secret... everyone knows. Scary?
Russia invades Ukraine, bombs civilian targets all the time, starts a multi year war that by now has killed and wounded around a million people. Scary?
In the scheme of things, a missile threat from Iran, like Nasrallah's speeches, is heavy psychologically, but physically... less so? (So far?)
Raf aside RE the Russo-Ukraine war: This graph gave me pause (I do not know if it accounts for emigration, which I believe is material in both Ukraine and Russia):
"Is Raf OK" -- Aren't we all sick of this by now? Do something different?
Yes, I am sick of the normalization of a state of war. And the ongoing failures in how we talk about Israel, Iran and the rest. (I don't care what perspective Ta-Nehisi Coates takes, but I do care when those who interview him are woefully unprepared. It is blind-leading-blind--why do editors-in-chief put up with such incompetence?)
To be "this blogger" I put a number of things on hold. I am ready to get going on those things.
And there is a distinct possibility that this state of war will drag on.
As in Ukraine, there is a fundamental lack of clarity that leads to partial effort. Israel cursed itself with its choices of leadership. And the West cursed itself with TikTok--which causes the under-30 populace to become misdirected and disillusioned.
American political dysfunction makes the U.S. look inward, blind to winds of chaos sweeping the world. I suppose it is these same winds that fucked up the American political landscape, but elsewhere these winds cause wars.
If you read one book: Nothing is True and Everything is Possible. (It's short.)
Dept of The Invisible
This new section is to cover aspects that may be invisible in the Western press.
IDF Operations in Syria
For most, or even all, the year, the IDF has bombed targets in Syria: Weapons warehouses; Hamas & Hezbollah "operatives;" and Iranian generals.
In recent weeks, there have been multiple reports, mostly from social media feeds affiliated with the Syrian opposition, of IDF operations on the ground. This started with air attacks on roads between Syria and Lebanon (to prevent Hezbollah from rearming) but has expanded to earthworks north of Quneitra.
Reuters just posted: IDF Begins Mine Removal on Syrian Border, Preparing for Potential Expansion Against Hezbollah
Reuters reported today that since October 1st, the IDF has been clearing mines along the Syrian border in the Golan Heights and pushing the border fence into Syrian territory.
The IDF has also placed new obstacles and fortifications near the Syrian border, with Syrian soldiers observing but not intervening. The cleared area will help with early detection of hostile activity.
The mine removal may suggest an IDF plan to flank Hezbollah by launching a ground operation from Syria into Lebanon, aiming to block additional arms transfers between Syria and Lebanon.
Notably, the report also mentions that Russian forces recently vacated Golan outposts in coordination with Israel to avoid friction.
Basically, war with Hezbollah means operations in Syria, because Hezbollah spans Lebanon and Syria and Iran is tightly aligned with Syria's dictatorship. This alignment means that for degradation of Hezbollah to "stick," operations in Syria are required.
Postmark
Berlin: Annalena Baerbock, Foreign Minister of Germany
1 min, German w/English subs:
Annalena Baerbock, Foreign Minister of Germany:
Self-defense is not only attacking terrorists, but destroying them.
This is why I made it clear that when Hamas terrorists hide behind civilians and behind schools we get into very difficult issues, but we will not shy away.That's why I told the UN clearly: Civilian sites may lose their protected status because terrorists exploit them.
This is Germany's position and this is what Israel's security means for us.
From Israeli Defense Minister Galant's remarks:
"A year ago, we were at a very low point. Today, we are in a position where we have almost entirely cut off Hamas' ability to operate as an organization, and the situation with Hezbollah is becoming increasingly similar in many respects. The main reason the Iranians acted against us is because we have significantly weakened these two arms."
"These are assets that Iran has built over decades with investments of billions, and now they find them broken. That's why they exerted their power from within their own territory."
Medical clinic in the Jabaliya refugee camp
"We are now at a regional clinic of the Jabaliya "refugee camp," [in Gaza and the West Bank, these are cities with apartment buildings, not "camps"] a government building that is supposed to receive patients," says MP in the 460th Brigade, Major Yair, "Inside the reception rooms of the clinic we found an anti-personnel weapons, electrical operating systems, wire, a belt of Hamas uniforms and terrorists, parts of anti-aircraft weapons.
"In the treatment room, we found a Motman mine, a camera with images of weapons that were here in the complex, right in the rooms we are in right now. There are images of a drone being used at an archaeological site near here. This is a cynical exploitation of the civilian population, inside a clinic--a civilian location. We will pursue These terrorists and we will find them in every corner."
Beirut & Lebanon: "Bank of Hezbollah"
Part 1:
The IDF spokesman in Arabic addresses the people of Lebanon and informs them that the IDF is expected to soon attack the infrastructure of the "Good Loan Association" ("Al-Qard Al-Hassan"), which is a recognized financial institution of Hezbollah, through which Hezbollah finances terrorist activities.
Because of this, Lebanese residents are required to stay away from all buildings and infrastructure of this association at a distance of 500 meters.
Hezbollah's "Good Loan" association has 31 branches throughout Lebanon, of which 14 are in Beirut, 10 in southern Lebanon and 6 in the Beqaa area.
Part 2:
What is Hezbollah's "Good Loan" association whose branches were attacked by the IDF last night across Lebanon?
The association was founded in 1982 by Hajj Hussein a-Shami, one of the founders of Hezbollah.
It is considered a "social institution", with a license from the authorities in Lebanon and serves as a kind of "private bank" of Hezbollah.
The association provides financial services to the Shiite population and Hezbollah supporters: it provides loans to borrowers and interest on deposits to those who deposit their money with it.
Hezbollah operatives who are under Western sanctions manage their financial affairs there, because they are blocked in other banks in Lebanon, which are subject to Western enforcement.
The US has previously imposed sanctions on the association and its activities due to the fact that it serves as a money launderer for Hezbollah and as an institution that facilitates the financing of terrorist activities.
Lebanese TV
A Lebanese Member of Parliament: Many Hezbollah Military Officials Are Hiding Among Civilians
Razi al-Hajj, a member of the Lebanese Parliament from the Lebanese Forces Party (a Christian party), stated in a television interview that many senior Hezbollah military officials are taking refuge among civilians and using them as human shields.
Al-Hajj made these comments in the context of an Israeli-attributed strike in the village of Ayto, in Zgharta, northern Lebanon, where 23 people were killed, including a senior Hezbollah official who was present at the site.
He called on the Lebanese government to urge Hezbollah, which is part of the government, to remove all its military leaders and weapons stockpiles from civilian areas.
According to him, all the disasters we are witnessing now stem from Hezbollah's dangerous use of civilians as human shields.
Lebanon has something Gaza lacks: Alternate political voices. These voices can call out Hezbollah for abusing the people of Lebanon. In Gaza, Hamas beats and kills critics. So there are essentially no voices holding them to account for their actions.
Tehran
You were hit by a military blow on October 7 and a political blow on August 7... the next blow is coming soon... [The Iranian regime talks to the Israeli public in Hebrew via Social Media…]
Social Media: One exiled Gazan (identified with Fatah) to Sinwar:
كيف تأخذونا إلى حرب وجود مع كيان نووي وينتهي المشهد بعصا أمام الكواد كابتر.؟
من حقائق هذه الحرب أننا حاربنا عدواً لا نعرفه وهو يعرفنا تماماً، فكان لنا ما نستحق وله ما يستحق
How do you take us to an existential war with a nuclear entity and the scene ends with a stick against a quadcopter?
One of the facts of this war is that we fought an enemy we did not know and he knew us completely, so we got what we deserved and he got what he deserved.
Gaza (Jabalia - site of recent IDF attacks)
This appeared on the streets of Jabaliya - a donkey with "Sinwar" written on it.
Yeah, but it's written in Hebrew, so that was done by an Israeli soldier, for an Israeli audience...
Relief Area
Alef
The whole world: "The Israeli military is doing war crimes in Gaza"
Meanwhile, the IDF in a Hezbollah cave: “There are strawberry cookies here.”
Bet
Gimmel
Dalet
Hey: The Mossad, recently:
Vav
Chet
Tet
Yod
(Photoshopped MemriTV meme)
Chaf: Sinwaar Killed While "Fighting"
(The Hamas announcement says he was killed “fighting.” This is what was on his person.)
Lamed
Mem
Nun
Samech
If we eat "Haman's ears" [the triangular "hamentashen" cookies traditionally eaten on Purim, representing the hat or ears of the evil oppressor Haman], should we eat "Sinwaar's ears" ...
Ayin: Technicaly the truth?
Pey
Tzade
Fafo... the social media star who just keeps giving...
Let’s see, it is sukot. I have eaten in five different sukkahs (I think). My favorite hummus place in Tel Aviv is now a dog yoga place:
And, after two years in this neighborhood… I found a tiny jazz club that has live music every night… A five minute walk from my apartment:
Entry: Cash only. You can pay for drinks and pizza with plastic.
To Peace,
Raf
(Thank you A.K., M.T., S.D., M.P., S.K., R.G., S.F.Z.)