Is Raf OK? -- Installment #145
2024-10-14 -- Jerusalem
First Time Here? Readers suggest starting with the expanded Gaza Explainer in #133 and #120.
Tags: 10 Min Read; Videos; Relief
Well, it is the holidays, so I expect to write less and eat more (last Friday was a meandering street food fest of some Tel Aviv faves).
As in Gaza, Hezbollah's depth is amazing. After all these setbacks, Hezbollah continues to launch 100-250 rockets a day at Israel--and though less able to rocket buildings with anti-tank weapons—as they were doing for the past year—they are able to launch kamikaze drones, one of which just killed four Golani soldiers at a training camp.
This post is “some assembly required:” It is going to wander around the region, and I am not giving events the “big treatment” because it is too much of a mess to summarize. #144 is the best summary so far available.
Mail
It seems like the war is escalating? [T.Z.]
The unprecedented deployment of 100 American soldiers to Israel, along with an anti-missile system, smells strongly of escalation. And to be clear, I am not sure this deployment is a good thing.
The history of U.S. troops on the ground in the Middle East is not a good one. In the early 1980's, it isn't just that Hezbollah killed over 200 U.S. Marines in Beirut. Before that the U.S. Navy--whose judgement against this action was overruled by the Reagan White House--fired heavy artillery at Lebanese targets in the middle of the Lebanese Civil War (this event lead to the bombing of those marines). U.S. troops were killed by Hezbollah in 1996 in Saudi Arabia (this event would have killed dramatically more except for a single hero who saved many dozens). To say nothing of the disaster known as the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
So yes, it is escalating and no, I don’t know that the presence of U.S. soldiers is a positive development. There are many data points to the contrary.
Talk
Rachel Polin Goldberg
1 Min, English
Here is a 24 min interview with Rachel and Jon, the parents of Hersh Polin Goldberg. It is buried in a web page that you may need to expand to see. In English.
Bill Maher
8 Min, English
One Prognosis
Amichai Magen is the director of the Program on Democratic Resilience & Development at Reichman University. An excerpt:
To counter what Ambassador Dennis Ross has called Iran’s “Axis of Misery,” we urgently need to articulate and pursue an alternative vision of peace and stability in the Middle East—what we might call a Middle East Peace and Prosperity Pact. Such a pact, which can learn from the European Union’s 1999 Stability Pact for Southeastern Europe, would be built on four main pillars. First, it would involve a determined strategy of rollback and containment to counter Iran and its proxies. Second, it would double down on Middle East peace-making, building on the nearly half a century of Arab-Israeli peace negotiations. Third, it would set out a concrete vision for Palestinian national (not religious) self-determination, based on co-existence, demilitarization, deradicalization, and performance-based progress towards statehood. Fourth, it would deepen security cooperation between Israel and pragmatic Sunni Arab states, as well as some European states, and would facilitate massive investment in economic development, environmental resilience, and innovation. The Iranian people would be offered the prospect of joining the Pact if Iran gets free of the Ayatollah regime and subscribes to the Pact’s terms.
Barring such a positive, forward-looking agenda, we are virtually guaranteed to continue on a downward spiral of war, instability, refugee flows, and state disintegration in the Middle East. This will only play into the hands of the radicals in the region and serve Iranian and Russian interests, undermining American ones. These are Days of Awe indeed.
Postmark
Lebanese TV
Above: Lebanese news anchor relaying a statement by a Senior Lebanese Shiite cleric Ali Al-Amin (born in 1952 in southern Lebanon, pictured below):
"The Lebanese front does not contribute to the Gazan front. We want Hezbollah's weapons to be handed over to the Lebanese Army. As long as there are weapons outside the state's control, it remains a cause for concern."
Southern Lebanon
Released just now, evening of October 14. The IDF spokesman in Lebanon in an 800 meter tunnel (Hebrew w/English subs):
And:
Above: The IDF brought civilians into Lebanese territory today - military reporters.
The above was published by military reporter Doron Kadosh showing IDF activity in the heart of the villages in southern Lebanon. Not in the suburbs, not at the edge of the village but right inside the central area. Note that civilian and unprotected Israeli vehicles and machinery are also operating in Lebanese territory.
Southern Lebanon II
Israeli military correspondent Doron Kadosh reveals:
"Look at this unbelievable footage I captured today during my third visit to southern Lebanon: Hezbollah’s underground bunkers, heavily fortified and armed, just a few meters away from a military post and a UNIFIL position of the UN.
Right under UNIFIL soldiers' noses, Hezbollah has built and dug military infrastructure that overlooks towns of the Western Galilee and prepared for raids on those towns.
UNIFIL saw everything. They can no longer hide."
A commentator:
This could explain the IDF’s unintentional harm to UNIFIL forces, as they are essentially stationed within Hezbollah’s military bases.
The IDF Spokesperson on October 13 about a recent event (that made the U.S. media):
After UNIFIL said IDF forces entered one of its posts in southern Lebanon and fired smoke shells that caused illness among peacekeepers, Israel admits that those incidents took place, but says they occurred during attempts to evacuate wounded IDF soldiers under fire.
Troops came under “massive anti-tank fire” earlier today, says the IDF. Two soldiers were seriously hurt, and several more were lightly or moderately injured.
From an initial investigation, says the IDF, “it appears that during the incident, and for the evacuation, two tanks reversed in a spot where they couldn’t have gone elsewhere because of the threat of fire, several meters into a UNIFIL position.”
“After firing ended and the evacuation of the wounded was completed, the tanks left the position.”
UNIFIL says the tanks were there for 45 minutes.
The IDF adds that smoke screens were laid down to assist the evacuation. “The IDF maintained continuous contact with UNIFIL. Throughout the entire incident, there was no danger to UNIFIL forces from IDF operations.”
Southern Lebanon III
Soldiers of the 121st Battalion in the 8th Brigade blow the shofar at the end of Yom Kippur during the activity in southern Lebanon.
Southern Lebanon IV
Lebanon... in Snippets
IDF Spokesperson: IDF soldiers from the Paratroopers Brigade located an arms warehouse 7 meters underground in one of the villages in southern Lebanon, where they are operating.
Above: Exhibit by the IDF for the media, in which the types of Hezbollah weapons captured in southern Lebanon were displayed.
In the video you can see weapons made in Russia, China and Iran:
Russia-made Thermobaric missiles,
9M131M 'Metis-M1 AT missiles,
Chinese-made QW-18 MANPADS,
Iran-made AMIG SPG-9 recoilless guns,
9M111 'Fagot' missile,
9M113 'Konkurs' missile
RPG-27 anti-tank missile
Weapons storage looks like this in situ:
Reports of Syrian Hezbollah members killed in action against the IDF. The question: Hezbollah needs to bring in reinforcements from its Syrian membership?
Dog from the Oketz ("Stinger") battalion locating anti-tank missiles:
Hezbollah ammo dumps going up (I know, there are hundreds of clips like this already):
Below: Published by Israeli journalist Amit Segal from the village of Ayta ash-Shaab (near the border fence). Captured Hezbollah vehicles are seen, including pickups with rocket launchers on them - "spoils of war."
Below: Social media posts from Lebanon:
Translated:
Lebanese Celebrate Assassination Attempt on Senior Hezbollah Official Wafiq Safa
Despite the fact that Wafiq Safa was likely not killed, and despite the relatively high number of casualties in the Beirut strikes, many Lebanese are rejoicing at the misfortune of the Shiites and Hezbollah.
After years of Shiite dominance in Lebanon, many Lebanese—especially Christians, but also Sunnis and Druze—feel that Hezbollah's hegemony in the country is weakening, and that its eventual collapse is inevitable. It’s a process; they want to make sure that Hezbollah’s grip is fully lifted first, but the sentiment is definitely present, felt, and simmering beneath the surface.
(If the result is a long term exile of Hezbollah from Lebanon... it will be consequential for the region. If they don’t come back in a year or ten....)
In Conclusion:
Hezbollah has about a third of its stockpile of medium and short-range missiles left, Israeli security officials told ministers at a cabinet meeting, according to a source at the meeting.
So far, this is nothing like expectations for the Third Lebanon War. Hezbollah forces have withdrawn some kilometers from the border with Israel, and there is relatively little combat. Iran is doing all it can to resupply Hezbollah. (The latest move: Landing cargo planes at a Syrian airfield that is controlled by Russia assuming that Israel will not attack a Russian asset.)
In all events, Israel is seen by many—in and out of the region—as doing Lebanon and the region a service: Hezbollah is a force of evil that has acted across the region to make war and kill. So far, Israel’s actions in Lebanon are helpful to Lebanon’s future. But Lebanon, like Afghanistan, tends to defy outsiders who try for influence. Time will tell.
Amsterdam
Central Gaza Strip: Deir al-Balah
Yes, tents were attacked.
Hamas stored arms in those tents... note the secondary explosions...
A year in, and Hamas still has weapons and tunnels, in quantity. Partly because: They have underground workshops manufacturing ammunition, RPG weapons and rockets. An IDF report two days ago:
IDF soldiers continue to operate throughout the Gaza Strip.
In the Jabaliya area, the forces of Division 162 have eliminated dozens of terrorists in the last day, including terrorists who launched an anti-tank missile at our forces, and located many weapons in the area, including Kalashnikov-type weapons, RPGs and ammunition.
In Rafah, Gaza Division forces located and destroyed rocket launchers, weapons and underground tunnel shafts.
In the center of the Gaza Strip, the forces of Division 252 in the last day eliminated many terrorists, located weapons and destroyed military infrastructure in the area.
Gaza - Social Media
Responding to the words of senior Hamas official, Khaled Mashal, that the losses of the Palestinians so far are only "tactical", writes a Gazan writes on social media:
As a Gazan, you are born and immediately become a "human shield".
Then you grow up and become a "bargaining chip".
And finally you die and become a "tactical loss".
Relief Area
Alef
Top: The Arab World when Israel kills terror leaders like Nasrallah, Ismail Haniyah and Mohamad Deif
Bottom: The Arab World when Iran and Hezbollah help murder hundreds of thousands of Syrians and ethnic minorities in the Middle East:
"I didn't know, it didn't seem important"
Bet: Seen on Facebook:
מסע לפולין - 2021
2022 - מסע לפולין
2023 - מסע לפולין
2024 - מסע לבארי
2021 - Trip to Poland (March of the Living, visit concentration camps)
2022 - Trip to Poland (March of the Living, visit concentration camps)
2023 - Trip to Poland (March of the Living, visit concentration camps)
2024 - Trip to Kibbutz Be'eri
Gimmel: Only in Israel
Praying in a minyan (quorum) at a professional basketball game named for a Communist sports organization.
Dalet
(In 2017, the US Treasury offered $5 million for information on Shukr.)
Hey
Vav The IDF Spokesman in Arabic
Headstone, translated:
Chet
Tet: Jews are "Schrodinger's Race"?
The above isn’t humor… it is real… but hey, Schrodinger’s race… that’s pretty cool. Right? (Right?)
Yod
The supporters of the Iranian opposition have high hopes for the blow that Israel will inflict on the Iranian regime and are waiting for a knockout that will throw the ayatollahs out of the arena.
Lammed
In Jerusalem it is pleasant, and the hardware stores have palletes of succah building supplies. Drive through. Whatever parts you need in any size. We built a succah and it's nice!
An improving skill: Getting shwarma that is well roasted and crispy. It requires a conversation and a sales pitch. Works best when the shwarma stand is not crowded, because you ask that they turn up the fires and let the skewer spin for awhile before cutting your meat. They want to "cut and go" but I want it to "cook and cook."
There have been some successes!
To Peace,
Raf
(Thank you A.K., M.T., T.Z., M.R.)