Is Raf OK? -- Installment #200

2025-08-25 -- Tel Aviv

Aug 25, 2025

First Time Here? Readers suggest starting with the expanded Gaza Explainer in #133 and #120.
Top Eleven IsRafOK Entries: #85; #123; #128; #140; #144; #154; #161; #162; #164; #171; #196

Tags: 15 Min Read; Raf Analysis; Big Relief

Updates: After email release, Relief Tzade was expanded.

#200... no no no no

Almost two years of war. Almost two years of IsRafOK.com.

One writer writing to an Israeli audience recently said: Forever wars are a normal part of authoritarian government. Get used to it. (C.f. Ukraine; places in Africa; Tr*mp and refugees/people of color; etc.) Another aspect of authoritarianism is incompetence (Israeli ministers... my goodness... more below).

The vast majority of Israelis have wanted the war to end since early 2024. Bibi has fallen into every single trap Sinwar set. And a bunch Sinwar didn't think of. I've said it before: Sinwar won this war in the first months. Every additional month simply adds points in his column. Blowing off the UAE/Saudi team that wants to help... Israel's leadership doesn't even know what help looks like, much less how to accept it. And the actual military threats (Iran and the Houthis)... how can those serious issues be engaged when so much energy keeps being wasted in Gaza?

It isn't even that Gaza is largely destroyed. Hamas has/had tunnels and bombs in a high percentage of buildings. I saw a clip of a girl getting killed last week by a Hamas IED. It was packaged into a video alleging she was killed by Israeli fire. Such clips will always, successfully, show Israel as the agency of evil. The large roles of Hamas and Egypt in Gaza's misery will never be acknowledged or material in global opinion.

The only offramp is to end the war. This is the same offramp that has been needed since... the first months of the war.

Whether Bibi is incompetent, selfish, unable to make decisions, or all the above, his leadership is a train wreck for Jewish history in the 21st century. That it is aided and abetted by Evangelicals from Washington D.C. will make no difference to the quality of Israeli or Jewish existence.

Hersh

The one year memorial for Hersh Goldberg-Polin was on August 19. The whole thing, with lots of music: 75 min

Jon Goldberg-Polin's are a few minutes long, in English are here. Rachel Goldberg-Polin's words, a few minutes, in English are here.

Rachel and Jon spend every waking minute pushing for the war to end and the hostages released.

Mundane... but Telling

A major chunk of the Israeli rail system was shut down for over a week. Seems a freight train had something protruding that took out a few hundred meters of the catenary infrastructure. The announcement from Israel Railways basically said, "Well, since we had to shut down a big chunk of the system to fix the electrical damage, we have brought forward some other maintenance and the system will be down for ten days or so."

Trains still run from the airport to Jerusalem, but much of the system passing through Tel Aviv is down for the count. A couple of Tel Aviv stations (there are four) were completely closed for the duration.

The "hard working" Minister of Transport and Road Safety went on vacation in the midst of this chaos.

More below.

About #199's Relief Gimmel and Relocating Gazans

Let's start with #199's Relief Gimmel and it's post-email expanded explanation:

top: Gazans who willingly go to Sudan
bottom: Sudanese who willingly infiltrate Israel
(Commentary on the fact that Israel’s “illegal immigrants” are Africans, typically from the Horn of Africa, who come to Israel to escape economic plight or political repression, combined with the reported discussions with the government of South Sudan to accept relocated Gazans.)

This refers to the the stated policy of the U.S. administration, who has said that it wants to move hundreds of thousands of Gazans to ... somewhere.

Here is what I understand as the vision and the vision behind the vision.

Gaza Background:

There is no political entity that wants the responsibility of Gaza. Egypt refused it in the 1979 Peace Agreement. Israel never wanted responsibility for it but has been stuck with it. While the 2005 handover of Gaza to the Palestinians was deliberately half baked, the Palestinians did, in fact, receive Gaza along with billions of dollars in aid. The result was hundreds of miles of military tunnels underneath and an extremist, genocidal, kleptocratic regime. IOW: It might be fair to say the Gazans themselves don't want Gaza.
I should modify that. It does appear that the Palestinian Authority is willing to administer Gaza. But the U.S. administration and Bibi's administration are against this.
Approximately 3/4 of Gazans who are Palestinians are not eligible for UNHCR refugee status because they are under UNRWA. The way the UNHCR works, if a refugee or potential refugee receives any form of support from another UN agency, they are ineligible for UNHCR services.

If I had to guess, I would say that the intention (I don't think it qualifies as a plan) is:

If a host country can be found, to offer Gazans a chance to live in that country, withdraw from UNRWA and move to UNHCR.
I imagine it would be voluntary.
Recall the surveys from months before the war that found 29% of Gazans wanted to emigrate. After the war started this changed to "most."
Also recall that approximately 4% of Gazans emigrated from Gaza in the first several months of the war, until Egypt closed its border with Gaza in mid-2024. A similar percentage, I believe, emigrated from Gaza in the years prior to the war. The only reason the pre- and post-October 7 numbers were not bigger is that Hamas (on the Gaza side) and Egypt (on the "outside") strictly limited the number of monthly exits.

Reactions to the American plan are all over the map. The best I heard is from a friend, who worked for the UNHCR for years interviewing refugee candidates here in Tel Aviv: "Tr*mp wants an exit path from Gaza? Give them refugee status to the U.S. His ‘plan’ is utter crap." This friend continued: Whole swaths of refugee processing, support and resettlement infrastructure unrelated to refugees going to America have shut down due to Tr*mp's cuts, including closures of all refugee-handling infrastructure in many countries (including Israel, where tens of thousands of Africans arrived 10-15 years ago).

Let me repeat that: Many U.N. and U.N.-adjacent agencies, worldwide, handling refugee matters unrelated to refugees going to America, shut down due to Tr*mp’s cuts.

Gaza’s borders have not been fully open to people for 10+ years. Unrestricted entry and exit (to Gazans, aid workers, journalists, etc.) is clearly the humane and correct thing to do. But the “relocation” plan is simply fantastic. Raf's prediction? Gaza continues bumbling along, unaddressed. Why? Because a) The world has other problems; and b) Gazans have a track record of making a hash of things (c.f. October 7). Know what that implies? Gaza remains Israel's issue to solve.

Given the poor quality of Israeli leadership, demonstrated by how it handles budgets and transit, I wouldn't count on material progress.

Complexity

A chronic issue: Monochromatic lenses don't work in this region. That Palestinians manufacture propaganda photos and even create real casualties is real.

It is also real that segments of Gaza are malnourished or starving. With funds, a family can purchase food. With an agile family member (who can run to the aid points), a family is in food. A family that lacks both is in real trouble. This has been the case for some time and is unlikely to change. The merchant class, Hamas members, and those with family abroad sending remittances have been in food, even going to cafes, the entire war. Members of large families (clans), I believe, have also been fine as the whole clan benefits from the connections and agility of some members. Poor families and smaller families are vulnerable.

Mail

Hey, #199 Relief Chet,

The Girls Saying "I'll sit on your face before we make settlements in Gaza," My Friend Saw Them At Protest in Jerusalem!

Thanks! Now I know where they were!

Making the tunnels in Gaza

Must have produced a tremendous amount of dirt in their excavation. Where did all that dirt go? Are the mounds visible from satellite?

My estimate is that years ago, Hamas figured out how to hide their digging from surveillance. In other words: Do I think Israeli intelligence failed vis-a-vis Hamas? Yes. Do I think Israeli intelligence saw tell tales of 500km of tunnel construction, including tunnels large enough to drive a car through, and ignored it? No.

But I could be wrong…

[Since the tailings are sand, it can be used as a construction material. One friend said some was exported to Israel as a construction material.]

Dept of The Invisible

Items invisible in the Western media. (Now combined with the Postmark concept, to help consolidate topics by locale.)

Lebanon

Mirroring comments by top members of the Lebanese government, the Maronite Patriarch Bechara al-Rahi:

"The words of Naim Qassem, Hezbollah's Deputy Secretary-General, are exaggerated. There will not be a civil war in Lebanon.
The members of the Shiite community are tired of wars and want to live in peace."

Syria

Aug 19: The official Syrian news agency, SANA, reported:
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaybani met with an Israeli delegation in Paris to discuss strengthening stability in the region and in southern Syria.

Direct Syria-Israel talks.

Woofing huge. There had been zero direct contact since the 1990's, I believe.

And:

There was another meeting in Paris – the American envoy Tom Barrack met with Muwaffaq Tarif, leader of the Druze community in Israel.

One can be sure the safety of the Druze in Syria was a top line topic.

Above: Salah Tarif (Israeli Druze), former minister in the Israeli Labor Party, said in an interview with Radio Nas that the Trump administration supports the establishment of a corridor between Israel and Suwayda in southern Syria.
In an interview with Al Arabiya, he noted that he took part in a meeting with the Syrian side and with the American envoy Tom Barrack in Paris, during which he spoke with the governor of Suwayda and the official responsible for security in the district on behalf of the Syrian regime.
Tarif noted that the leader of the Druze community in Israel is in daily contact with Hikmat al-Hijri, the leader of the Druze community in Syria.

And:

Arab sources: A security agreement will be signed in September between Israel and Syria in the presence of President Trump
The newspaper Independent, in its Arabic edition, published in Britain and owned by Saudis, reports on an agreement to be signed between Israel and Syria in the US on September 25.
According to these sources, the Syrian president, Ahmad al-Sharaa, will deliver a speech at the UN General Assembly on September 24, and the next day will sign a security agreement - whose purpose is to end the military tension between Syria and Israel in southern Syria. This is not a peace agreement but rather an agreement relating to security aspects. (Raf would hope it ends the fifty+ year "state of hostility" between Syria and Israel, but we will see.)

Iran

The past week has seen steady threats of war from Iran.

Above: Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran:
Cardboard display of senior Iranian casualties in the war with Israel and the USA.
Symbolic?

Egypt

Aug 21: Protests against Egypt's posture toward Gaza continue. In New York City, guards at the Egyptian Embassy dragged two protesters into the Embassy and beat them within the building--visible through the glass doors.

Gaza

WHO Director-General: Over 15,000 people need to leave the Gaza Strip for medical treatment.

So ask Egypt to open its side of Rafah to people? The Gaza side of that crossing is calm and under control. Protests outside Egyptian embassies produced quick results--Egypt let in trucks of aid within days.

Hamas is still Hamas:

The Hamas Internal Security apparatus executed four Gazans over the weekend, including a woman and an aid truck driver, on charges of collaboration with Israel.
These are their names according to Hamas sources:
Raed Ouni, 55 years old from Nuseirat – officer in the PA intelligence services.
Munis Khaled, 45 years old from Sheikh Radwan neighborhood in Gaza City – aid truck driver.
Kamel Rabia, 40 years old, resident of Shuja'iyya neighborhood in Gaza City.
Rasha Tarek, 32 years old, resident of Beit Hanoun, humanitarian aid worker.

Executions of this kind have been going on the entire war and are normal under Hamas rule for many years already. Sometimes I see photos and reports. This Hamas behavior is a key reason Gazans want to emigrate.

This math is also why a journalist who reports from within the Gaza Strip, over time, is a journalist who has earned the trust of Hamas and serves it and its goals. The moment a journalist publishes a report against Hamas, s/he will be accused of collaboration and shot.

Water

Funded by the United Arab Emirates: The clip above shows progress on the new water pipeline from Egypt to the Khan Yunis area in the southern part of the Strip.

Aid Trucks

On August 13, Hamas launched rockets at a convoy of aid trucks in southern Gaza. (Not the first time.) The rocket(s) landed 300 meters from the aid convoy's route. Hamas is, de facto, at war with the southern part of the Strip, that they no longer control.

(Translation of key on lower right, top to bottom: Launch site; Rocket landing site; Humanitarian corridor.)

It has been observed that the U.N.'s measure of food entering Gaza is incomplete.

[The] UN online dashboard documenting aid deliveries in Gaza only includes those that the UN is involved in, and not deliveries conducted independent of the UN, including the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation — which runs aid distribution sites in Gaza — airdrops by various nations, and the private sector in Gaza.

While the UN dashboard makes clear that it only measures humanitarian relief processed under a specific UN mechanism, it appears that UN declarations of food insufficiency in Gaza do not take into account other streams of food entering the Strip.

And, as you may have read elsewhere, the IPC--the body that determines if an area is in famine--created a new standard for Gaza. Africa and Asia get the decades-established standard of what constitutes famine, and Gaza gets a made up threshold built, by all appearances, to comply with Hamas' "hunger in Gaza" campaign.

The UN at its best... (The IPC is not, I believe, part of the UN, but the UN follows its guidance.)

Below, August 25: Gazan channels report that for the first time in 6 months, frozen poultry products have entered the Strip – the current consumer price is about 100 NIS per kilo (US$13/lb).

Aid Drops

Air drops of food aid continue... They have been going on since late July and amount, as of August 17 amount to 1,500 pallets. Some days see 100+ pallets. Trucks bring much more (dozens of pallets per truck).

There are masses of videos from August of stores and warehouses stocked (even overflowing) with food. Bakeries are baking. The works.

Below, Aug 20:

How Do Gazans Have Money?

Answer: Remittances from relatives abroad and "gofundme" type campaigns.

Here are the latest ways to send money into the Strip even these days, according to Gazan users who yesterday tried to help an exiled Gazan transfer money to his family in the Strip:
Money is sent to a Palestinian living in the West Bank via the Western Union money transfer service, and that Palestinian, from the PA territories, deposits it into any Palestinian bank account (Gazans have Palestinian bank accounts).
A transfer from a European bank account to an account at “Bank of Palestine,” and from there to the Palestinian financial app that allows direct purchases in the markets (after the seller charges an additional fee). The process takes two business days – until the money reaches Gaza.
Gazans with accounts at “Bank of Palestine” who have a Paypal-linked account can receive money from abroad without any problem using this platform.
The “hawala” method – the exiled Gazan abroad transfers money to another Gazan abroad, who then instructs his people in Gaza to settle up with the relatives of the Gazan from abroad and give them the sum of money.
Cryptocurrencies (a much more common method than is generally thought – very popular in the Strip) – mainly the USDT coin via the Binance platform and through digital wallets. Gazans report the advantages of this method – safe and fast, the money appears in the account within minutes.

(source: Abu Ali Express)

Released Prisoners

All year there has been a steady stream of prisoners released from Israel. A group of thirteen arrived at a hospital in Deir al-Balah this past week. They were not photographed... presumably because they were well fed, and such photos would not fit the Hamas narrative.

Wait, two days later some clips were found:

Nassar Hospital Strike, Khan Younis

Four or more journalists were killed in this strike. At least one, Muhammad Salama of Al Jazeera, was part of the October 7 attack.

The Chief of the General Staff instructed to conduct an initial inquiry as soon as possible.
The IDF regrets any harm to uninvolved individuals and does not target journalists as such. The IDF acts to mitigate harm to uninvolved individuals as much as possible while maintaining the safety of IDF troops.

Reportedly, the strike was by a tank, and that authorization to fire in the area of hospitals comes from relatively high in the chain of command. We'll see what the inquiry brings.

Immediately following the above event, journalist Zafinaz Al-Louh, an outspoken supporter of Hamas, says that she was evicted from her apartment, and her landlord threw her belongings into the street in Deir al-Balah. The landlord acted out of fear that the apartment rented to her would be targeted. The apartment owners told her that it took them a lifetime to build the house, not so that it would be bombed because of her. (In other words, her landlord knows she is Hamas-affiliated.)

Israel - Ultra Orthodox (Haredim)

Enlisting in the army is a decree of extermination

However, in an unexpected turn of events, a senior Shas rabbi said that Haredim who do not study full time can serve in the IDF… if the IDF itself becomes more religious.

World

Orthodox Rabbis Speak Out

Over 80 Orthodox Rabbis Urge Israel to Address Gaza Humanitarian Situation, Condemn Settler Violence

Haaretz reported (PDF here) on the recent letter signed by Orthodox Rabbis from around the world.

I have long been concerned that the silence of Orthodox rabbis outside Israel is harmful to the Jewish collective soul. (Within Israel the Jewish Orthodox spectrum is both more colorful and more outspoken than can be seen from abroad.)

Relief Area

Alef: Languages spoken in Israel

(I have not validated this, but it looks right)

Bet

Greta is reportedly on yet another vessel heading for Gaza. I haven’t heard a status report for awhile.

Gimmel

The Australian government on Monday [Aug 18] refused entry to far-right Religious Zionism lawmaker Simcha Rothman, as it had in the past to former lawmaker Ayelet Shaked and right-wing Jewish activist Hillel Fuld when they travelled to address Jewish audiences there,

Dalet - Eretz Nehederet Dose of the Day

Highlighting the behavior of Likud MK Tally Gotliv in Israeli courtrooms. The actual incident in question can be seen in a clip here. Hebrew w/English subs by Raf, 1 Min.

About Tally Gotliv:

This psychopath Tally Gotliv, who in the last election was second on the Likud list, is the whole story of what is happening in the Likud camp.
I don't understand why she hasn't yet been thrown into psychiatric observation for her health.
This morning, this crazy woman screamed at a security guard in the courtroom and called him a Judenrat, an animal, and more. The security guard, a reservist who recently completed 400 days of reserve duty, instead of giving her a smack, told her that he was just doing his job.
And Netanyahu? He is waiting for instructions from [his just as toxic son in] Miami on what to do..

(Credit: Avital Lembersky, translation and emphasis by Raf)

Hey: Response from Hamas

Bibi: Nu? Are they feeling pressure?

Vav - Stop Using Anti-Public Transportation Language!

Stop using Anti-Public-Transportation Language!

Zayin - About The Train System....

(The actual rail system map.)

Chet

top: Israel Railways: "It is forbidden to climb, approach or touch cables or electrical towers."
bottom: Also Israel Railways:

Tet - More Eretz Nehederet

With the trains off line, traffic is...

Yod

I will go a month without sex if Bibi will just get out of here….

Chaf

top: Salt of the earth - soldiers
bottom: King of Israel - Bibi [“king” is misspelled, making an implication about Bibi’s supporters)

Lammed

Israel and Greta…

Mem

How Justice Minister Yair Levin generally looks.
How Justice Minister Yair Levin looks when shocked at the antics of Tally Gotliv

(e.g. He doesn’t care what a circus she makes.)

Nun

Office of the Prime Minister (a tracking bracelet for Bibi’s advisors who are under house arrest)

Samech

Operation Gideon’s Chariots: Retest

(Minister of defense and Chief of Staff… the Minister is watching the time as Zamir, the second Chief of Staff during this war, takes the test.)

Ayin - Channel 14, Israel’s Fox News/Newsmax

How many do you think came? [To the huge demonstration that clocked 300k-400k people]
Thirty or forty, not more.

[Even with the footage right behind them…]

Pey

(I have validated that the above represents the source data.… This can be thought of as… the work of Bibi… It is a prime example of Sinwar’s victory.)

Tzade

Excuse me, From here we can get to the forever war/infinity war?

(In Hebrew, the same words can translate to “Forever war,” “Infinity war,” and “Endless war.” The reference is to the movie: Avengers - Infinity War.)