Is Raf OK? -- Installment #181
2025-06-13 -- Tel Aviv & Jerusalem
First Time Here? Readers suggest starting with the expanded Gaza Explainer in #133 and #120.
Top Ten IsRafOK Entries: #85; #123; #128; #140; #144; #154; #161; #162; #164; #171
Tags: 10 Min Read; Relief; Raf is OK
I am OK.
Smartly (accidentally), I came to Jerusalem (from the “country of Tel Aviv,” as we say) Thursday, before this chapter started. (My cousin, visiting from Chicago, came this morning. Trains are running a special schedule due to the "situation." But, though she made it to Jerusalem, and has a nice hotel, her conference was cancelled a couple of hours ago.)
So in the "Is Raf OK?" context: It is quiet. The Arab contractors working on Adina's place were here this morning as planned. There was no tension—Israeli Jews and Arabs live and work together (and deal with the same air raid alerts). I made sure there is space in the nearby bomb shelter to accommodate all of us, but today there was no need.
Our first sign that something was going on was a siren at three AM. It turns out this was a preventative measure, when the IDF thought there would be an instant Iranian retaliation. In the event, nothing happened at night. Then in the morning, there was an advisory to stay near shelters. This was lifted after the Iranian drones were all intercepted.
It’s quiet in Israel. So far.
Now to the post I had prepared over the last few days. If you lack emotional or mental bandwidth for it, I get it:
For Israelis (and everyone) 2 Min, Hebrew w/Large English Subs:
Counterpoint
To note the counterpoint (raised both by peacenik friends and Biden Lead Negotiator Brett McGurk who is interviewed in this podcast): The idea that there is any desire in Gaza to release all the hostages is a projection. It’s what Raf wants. Hamas has never communicated anything like, “We want to release all the hostages.” If there are still hostages, can the war actually be ended? What government, of what country, would do that?
Mail
Where should they go?
RE Raf's text in #180: [Raf would add: My feed trolling indicates dozens, even 100+ of Gazan casualties in the past 2-3+ weeks have been in areas instructed by the IDF to evacuate. It seems there is a hefty amount of noncompliance with evacuation orders.]
Reader's question: Where is it they should go?
A year ago around a million Gazans evacuated from the Rafah area in a ten day period. I am not saying it is easy, pretty or good. But having a place to go is not a problem area that hits the feeds I watch. There are tent camps including in the Rafah area--under the management of the new alternative-to-Hamas--that reportedly have space. Hamas deliberately built its military infrastructure under cities and towns. If you have one finger to point at the wrong of the IDF, I bet you have a second to point at Hamas.
The War Is...
The reader continues: [The Gaza war is] an exercise in deploying overwhelming military power and causing pointless death and destruction of far, far too many families by Netanyahu and those who enable him.
I responded:
The war is still running because Bibi wants it to. That is all. He could end it tomorrow.
Hamas has the exact same power as Bibi to end the war. They could end it tomorrow (or a year ago, or any time).
Is there a villain in the story? Absolutely!
There are two.
Walking across town after writing that, I realized: That’s an undercount.
The role of Qatar is deeply problematic: Funding Hamas over the years; Corrupting the office of Bibi Netanyahu (over the course of decades, with Bibi's active collaboration); Offering a huge bribe (airplane) to the U.S. President. Those are the items visible to all of us. (Should we assume there is at least as much not visible? How should I think of the nine digit sales of Israeli weapons to Qatar, approved by Bibi's office?)
So, I propose: Vis-a-vis the Gaza war, four villains:
Bibi's government, that allowed Hamas to arm itself for years and pushed down, from the top, a "conception" that Hamas was "bought" (and therefore not a threat);
Hamas, a group of violent extremists, happy to fight to the death of the last Gazan (they make no secret of how the destruction of Gaza benefits their goals);
Qatar, who funded the above and offers haven for Hamas leaders (and their fundraising and propaganda activities)
Iran, a party that has no involvement, interest or ethnic affinity with the Palestinian cause except as a justification to inflame the region (and suppress the Iranian populace), who provided money, arms, weapons designs and more.
Qatar is something of an unknown (to me). I don't know their "regional orientation." Their actions vis-a-vis Hamas show they are sympathetic to Islamic extremism. I speculate that they are against the regional rise of Saudi Arabia, and their actions align them with Iran.
A friend's family was visiting recently from Oakland, CA (San Francisco Bay Area). She reported that "Free Palestine" signs are prevalent in Oakland.
Raf's question: Are those signs in support of Palestinian Authority Chairman Abbas? He has condemned Hamas, and has said publicly, some number of times now, in Arabic to the Arabic-speaking world, that Hamas should surrender and disarm, for the sake of the Palestinian people.
Or are those signs supporting some other movement?
If so, which one?
Lest We Forget
Calls for a ceasefire that fail to mention release of all hostages and Hamas' obligations (to disarm) are not calls for peace. Such calls, which include some proclamations from the U.N., fail to acknowledge the reality on the ground and directly encourage Hamas to keep the hostages and prolong the conflict.
A ceasefire that leaves Hamas in power essentially turns the clock to October 6, 2023.
Who wants that?
That IDF action against the Madleen “Aid Ship” (Greta Thunberg's project)?
An example of made-for-TV activism. In 2024, I was worried about the prospects of the Biden campaign. A friend calmed me down, "The media is in it for clicks, don't believe the hype that there is a problem with Biden."
The Madleen was never to feed anyone or raise awareness. It was purely for clicks. (To drag it out, several participants--though not Greta--refuse to sign paperwork and are thus stuck in Israel for some days while the legal process to deport them goes through the courts.)
The Madleen was a media maker, not a peace maker. Refusing to sign papers is to drag the incident out. To keep it trending. Which encourages Hamas that the ongoing war is a success. Which drags out the war.
Years ago, a friend of mine had a photo on his desk from the Intifada in the 1990's. It was of some Palestinian teens slinging rocks. But the photo was taken from across the street, so you could see 35 photographers taking the picture of the two teens. Every news organization in the world seemed to be represented.
In other words: Made for TV.
I was reminded of that photo today. There was an incident in the old market of Nablus. The IDF went in to confiscate weapons. No shots fired.
Until a local approached the soldiers with his hands up, but then grabbed one of their weapons, managed to shoot it wildly several times (there was a struggle over the gun) before he and his accomplice were killed. (Four of the soldiers were injured, one seriously.)
The whole thing was captured by multiple people on their phones. I have seen footage from at least two phones.
How did they know to be filming?
Because there was a vested "press" person there, with a camera on a tripod. That person is captured in one of the clips. People saw a camera and "knew" something was going to happen, so they pointed their phones the same way. The data strongly suggests the entire provocation was staged for the professional cameraman. On Palestinian channels I expect it will only show the ending (the Palestinian provocateur being killed by soldiers).
I will spare you the violence. Below is the "before" photo (the guy in the white shirt and red hat is the provocateur) and a frame from one of the cell phone clips that shows the media presence.
Made for TV.
Outgoing Mail (new!)
To readers, I ask to please help me make sense of this photo from the LA demonstrations/riots:
Note the red headband on the head of the protester waving the Mexican flag - this is the headband of the Palestinian terrorist organization the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PLFP) - the terrorist organization that invented the terrorist hijacking of passenger planes in 1968. (Thus “inventing” the security we go through at airports.)
This was presented as real footage. Is it photoshop?
If it is real, what does it mean? Why is it there?
Below: Deputy Secretary General of the PLFP meeting with the Iranian President on June 11, 2025:
(The guy has grey hair... he made a lifetime career from terrorism.)
Iran
A few bits:
The IDF published an animated infographic of the Uranium enrichment facility in the Natanz area:
Below: Sunnis in Daraa in southern Syria celebrate with a fuel tank dropped by an Israeli warplane.
Iran has ballistic missiles of 1,500-2,500 kilometer range and is actively developing missiles of 4,000+ kilometers, which would threaten much of the world. Another IDF infographic:
As I type this, 6:00 PM on Friday, June 13, the word is that the Israeli air force continues to attack, even as I type. It has been about 15 hours at this point. I see no reason it should stop as long as there is a single surface-to-surface missile or uranium enrichment device left in Iran. Or the ability to manufacture them.
Dept of The Invisible
Items invisible in the Western media. (Now combined with the Postmark concept, to help consolidate topics by locale.)
Israel
I just learned that the Argentinian Ambassador to Israel is an Argentinian Rabbi. Is that a first? (That a rabbi is made an ambassador?)
The Knesset: MK Gilad Kariv, June 3
3 min. Hebrew with large English subs by Raf.
Drafting the Religious: Social Media
Pictured: Rabbi Dov Landau, considered a giant in the Lithuanian yeshivot sphere.
A former student of his quoted from a shiur a few years ago: "The army is for the gentiles. They fight for us. [The army is ] like a donkey – you ride it, you don't join it." (Raf has been unable to verify this quote. The attitude is consistent with Landau’s other statements.)
U.S. Ambassador Lobbying Coalition Members...
I don't think this has ever happened... (But I admittedly may have missed in the past.)
US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee has reportedly been meeting with ultra-Orthodox coalition members, as part of efforts to prevent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government from collapsing over stalled legislation to enshrine broad exemptions from mandatory military service for the Haredi community.
(Source)
Crazy. Just crazy.
Syria
American drones have assassinated at least two people in Syria in the June 9-11 frame. This is a new development. I don't know who or why. (American lethal force in Syria has a many year history at this point, but I don't track, so far, what this phase is concerned with.)
Yemen
After some days of quiet, Yemen launched a rocket at Israel on June 10. It was intercepted. Falling debris gave a Palestinian household in the Dhahiriya area (near Hebron) a "kitchen renovation."
Gaza
Hamas and their allies continue to launch rockets at Israel.
Tunnels of the Day
On May 10, the IDF published some of its tunnel discovery in the خربة خزعة / ח'רבת אחזעה / Khirbet Ahzaa area
Relief Area
Alef
Right to Left:
A Right wing Prime Minister who received money from an enemy state while he funds Hamas and ISIS
Bibi fanatics decide who to call "Traitor"
Leaders of Leftist parties who come out against the government's conduct during the war.
Bibi fanatics decide who to call "Traitor"
Bet
There is no Western country where a Jew wearing a kippah would be expelled from a debate in the parliamentary house amid insults to his religion and after comparing his daughter to a dog.
Excepting Israel, of course.
This relates to treatment of MK Gilad Kariv, seen in the video above.
Gimmel
Top: The Swedes who came to the region in times past (volunteers return to the kibbutz)
Bottom: The Swedes who come today.
Dalet
(Same idea as the S.Y. Agnon snippet in #180)
Hey
Fares on public transit are expected to rise again at the end of the month. For the second time this year and the third time in a year.
The new price is expected to be 9 shekels [up from 8 at the moment]. It keeps going up ... from 5.50 shekels ...
[the doors]
5.50 shekels
6 shekels
8 shekels [today's fare]
[E.g. Right wing screamer & Bibi fanatic, Transportation Minister Miri Regev, is screwing the country]
Vav
Raf, a heavy user of Israel’s public transport, doesn’t feel it is that bad. I did, however, read a comparison of Israel’s public transport to that of Europe, and Israel’s had a clear gap to close.
Zayin -- Middle Eastern Humor
April, 2024: Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' Air and Space Forces, and Mohammad Bagheri, chief of staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, look up with a smile during Operation "Promise of Truth," during which hundreds of launches were carried out towards Israel.
Now they are looking down...
(They were both killed in Israel’s attack on Iran, Friday, June 13, 2025)
Chet - From Iranian Opposition Channels
First footage of a meeting convened by Iran's Supreme Leader with the heads of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards.
(Those heads were all killed.)
Read of the Day: My friend Judah Isseroff's piece on… an evolution of thought visible on the American Right Full article. (PDF here):
In his burgeoning platform for criticism of Israel, Tucker Carlson [former Fox News star] is now making arguments that have been gaining traction among American Jews over the last several years. At the same, and in service of his criticisms of Israel, Carlson also appears to be resurrecting an early Christian heresy that was even more anti-Jewish. Whether his view of the bible aligns with accepted church teaching can be debated for centuries. It even has been. But what is clear right now is that there is a new dawn, not only for how the populist right is looking at Israel, but also for relations between Christianity and Judaism.
With that, as we enter Shabbat and a new chapter in the region (the last two years being one chapter after another), I wish you Shabbat-shalom, Shabbat-shalem and, as the Arab contractors here this morning said to me: We should live to hear better news.
To Peace,
Raf
(Thank you A.K., M.T.)