First Time Here? Readers suggest starting with the expanded Gaza Explainer in #133 and #120.
Tags: 14 Min Read; Massive Relief Area
Updates:
The section on Jordan’s ban on the Muslim Brotherhood/Hamas was expanded on 2025/05/01
The number of U.S. attacks on Yemen was revised on April 25, after the email release on April 24.
Relief Area: Some translations tweaked and context added (thank you M.T.)
In February, former Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant was on the Call Me Back podcast. I have been listening to his long form interview that spans two podcast episodes.
An aspect that I don't hear discussed: How Israel, militarily and politically, has allowed Hamas to set the terms of the war.
Something I learned in my business life is that, generally speaking, there are no secrets. In the case of Hezbollah, Israel had a secret: Hezbollah had been deeply penetrated. Their assets were known to the IDF. The pager and walkie talkie operations show the degree to which Hezbollah was compromised. Ditto Iran.
But in Gaza, Israel has not had any secrets. Hamas had a few (the extent of its tunnel network, the extent of Hamas' Gaza-domestic arms production, the fact that they are death-seeking fanatics and not luxury-seeking kleptocrats).
But the bottom line is that Israel is fighting in the middle of Gaza, right where Hamas wants the fight. Hamas uses hospitals and ambulances militarily. So the war touches hospitals and ambulances. What Hamas wants, it gets.
The fact that Hamas is still standing, a year and a half in, can lead to a few conclusions:
International support of Hamas, from Iran and "Pro Palestine" groups in the West, is strong and enduring.
Over the past fifteen+ years, Hamas hunted down and killed every potential alternative leadership in Gaza. Hamas hasn't been challenged in Gaza because there is no one of such a bent to do so. They have all been killed.
Anyone who cares about Gaza's governance and future is ineffectual
Makes me wonder where Israel's military creativity went. I sure don't see it in the Gaza war.
It also makes me wonder what realistic options exist to large scale emigration. If I conclude that either no one cares and/or that no one can be effective, what is left?
Mail
Israel has Occupied Parts of Lebanon and Syria! That's What Israel Does!
This is destructive propaganda from warmongers like "In Our Lifetime."
The background is like this:
Lebanon
This is a view of Israel from the Lebanon Border:
In Lebanon, as part of ending the 2006 Lebanon War, the U.N. passed resolution 1701. This resolution included stationing U.N. forces in southern Lebanon to prevent the area from becoming militarized by Hezbollah. Basically, Israel and the West realized: Lebanon, as a state, is too weak to prevent Hezbollah from militarizing the Lebanese side of the Lebanon-Israel border. So the U.N. set up observation posts and stationed thousands of armed U.N. observers to make this happen. Resolution 1701 further called for all groups in Lebanon [read: Hezbollah] to disarm.
That was in 2006.
Not only was it a joke (in that Hezbollah continued to arm itself to the teeth, including with a huge arsenal of advanced missiles that Lebanon did not want or need), but the observation points themselves were laughable. In Israel's 2024-25 invasion of Lebanon many Hezbollah attack tunnels and arms depots were right under the U.N. posts, in clear view.
Either U.N. teams were paid off in some way or they were threatened into inaction.
Since combat in Lebanon "ended" earlier this year, Israel has maintained several military outposts. To do what the U.N. failed to do. If Hezbollah actually disarms (there are many reports that concrete steps are actually occurring), the Israeli posts will be removed.
The Raf line: Israel could care less about southern Lebanon. Just get rid of the Hezbollah military. That is the only path for mutual happiness.
(The 2006 Lebanon War lasted 34 days... It's horrible that such a number sounds "great" right?)
Syria
The story in Syria is both similar and simpler.
Until the fall of the Assad regime in late 2024, the Syrian side of the Syria-Israel border was managed by the U.N. Disengagement Observer Force. This entity was created in 1974 to meet an Israeli need that Syria would not mass offensive weapons on its border with Israel (as it did to start the Yom Kippur War).
While the mission was extended just this past December (after the fall of the Assad regime), the power vacuum in Syria is a matter of concern for Israel. The new Syrian regime is a direct derivative of ISIS, which planned to attack Israel. Further, there is not yet a unification of militias in Syria. In other words: No one in Damascus can make assurances that attacks will not originate in Syria, because there are multiple militias operating on Syrian soil, some of which do not answer to Damascus.
As a result, Israel has set up some outposts. The goal is to prevent a build up of military assets on the Syrian-Israeli border. (And the experience with the U.N. in Lebanon these past many years shows that the U.N. won't do it.)
That's it.
It isn't occupation.
It isn't peace either. But I think that any assessment that compares today, April 2025, with, say, any April from 2006 to 2023, would show that peace on these frontiers is a lot closer today than it was.
That's something to be grateful for.
Dept of The Invisible
Items invisible in the Western media. (Now combined with the Postmark concept, to help consolidate topics by locale.)
Lebanon
A Lebanese soldier was killed [appx on April 17] and three others were injured while trying to neutralize Hezbollah weapons in the Wadi Al-Aziya area in the Tyre governorate in southern Lebanon.
Who evacuated the victims? A Hezbollah ambulance...
Anyone with hard opinions about the Middle East, who does not track this stuff full time, has to be ignored. It’s just too messy to make generalities about.
That includes [almost all] residents of the region.
Syria
The new regime has published multiple reports of large arms seizures. Some of the seizures are weapons being smuggled to Hezbollah, but it is not clear to Raf if this accounts for all the activity.
Iran
Well, here is a new one: Full frontal AI falsification of reality on a state controlled news network.
The Iranian State-Owned Al-Alam News Network published a completely fabricated video of former Israeli Defense Minister Gallant.
Former Israeli Defense Minister: The US will not succeed in defeating the Houthis.... It goes on to say that the only way to defeat the Houthis is a multinational force making a ground invasion, and that the real solution is diplomacy within the Arab world.
It has subs in English. Turn the sound on and listen. You won't regret it. Fake news at a new level. (The Hebrew is mispronounced in many places… The AI model appears to have been trained by a native Arabic speaker who makes Arabic-style mistakes in Hebrew.)
What does it mean that the Iranians resort to dubbing Israeli officials via AI to make them "say" things for propaganda purposes - while calling it "news"?
But wait… It gets better!
Channel 14, Israel's Fox and Newsmax equivalent, saw this and pounced, rebroadcasting it as if it was real, as if Gallant had given an interview to Iranian State News and had actually said these things. Part way through the broadcast, they realized what was going on (probably someone told them) and they cut it short.
So eager is the right to spread poison on anyone they do not approve of...
(Remind me, why did the Second Temple fall? Right, it "...occurred to a great degree because of warfare among the Jews themselves." Do we get points for consistence?)
Yemen
I can’t count the number of U.S. bombing attacks in Yemen since the beginning of the year. (There were about 50 strikes just on April 20 alone, another 40 on April 21, 23 on April 22, 20 on the 23rd, 20 on the 24th.) I thought it was 500+, but the Houthis claimed on April 24: “The U.S. carried out 1,200 attacks in Yemen over the past month, including 260 in the past week.”
The Houthis claim to have shot down 21 American MQ9 drones (about 17 of these are confirmed, to Raf's knowledge). Drones of this type cost approximately $32 million each. (The total for 21 of them is $672 million.)
(The fact that no American activists have blocked bridges or freeways in protest of American attacks on Yemen means what, exactly? America has been dropping bunker buster bombs on Yemen—the largest conventional weapon in existence. And… not a peep. Ask your local protester why they are not protesting America killing hundreds —even thousands by now—of Yemenis?)
Jordan
The Jordanian Minister of the Interior has declared the Muslim Brotherhood an illegal movement in Jordan its activities are now banned in Jordan. The announcement continues that all assets of the Muslim Brotherhood movement in Jordan will be confiscated, their offices will be closed, and any dissemination of Muslim Brotherhood ideology in Jordanian territory is prohibited.
Note that this comes after the arrest last week of a terrorist cell that manufactured rockets and drones on Jordanian territory. The people involved received assistance from Hamas. Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood are the same movement for all intents and purposes.
Additionally note that Europe and North America do not ban these organizations. Gulf countries, Saudi Arabia, etc. ban militant Islam. In many [all?] respects, what has occurred in the West [pro Hamas demonstrations] is a function of the West importing movements that the Middle East itself has rejected.
The Muslim Brotherhood was outlawed in Egypt (2013), in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain (2014), and now in 2025 in Jordan.
Perhaps the Muslim Brotherhood’s logo gives a clue why:
It says:
Top: The Holy Quran
Bottom: Prepare
And now, as of May 1, Switzerland passed a law banning Hamas and related organizations. Keeping up with the Jordanians?
Gaza
A Gazan blogger (identified with Fatah):
Offers advice to Egypt: How to quickly bring about a ceasefire:
"The greatest service Egypt can do for us (Gazans) is to detain the Hamas negotiation delegation and deport them back to Gaza… the war will end within minutes.
This delegation behaves arrogantly because it doesn’t experience what our people are going through. They don’t know the pain of living in a tent, they don’t know the humiliating food lines, and they don’t know what hunger is… Deport them to Gaza and they’ll fall to their knees and surrender within minutes…
Those who are used to hotels can’t survive in tents."
Raf would add: Even within Gaza, Hamas doesn't know what it is like to be a Gazan:
Hamas continues to control well stocked food warehouses
Hamas commandeers whatever housing they desire
Hamas still has 100+ miles of tunnel network to hide in
About the Non Blockade "Blockade" of Gaza: A Social Media Post:
هو فعلا في ناس بتطلع وبشكل يومي وعن طريق معبر كرم ابو سالم بس كل يلي بطلعوا بكون الهم شخص قريب درجة اولى معاه جنسية وقتها بروح للسفارة وبطلب اجلاء عائلته وبصير تنسيق ما بين السفارة الاجنبية مع السفارة الاسرائيلية وبالتالي بقدروا يطلعوا عن طريق كرم ابو سالم وفي ناس مرضى بتطلع ومعاهم مرافقين وفي اشخاص يلي عندهم فيزا دراسة او فيزا عمل بقدر يطلع واي شخص عنده اقامة لدولة اجنبية بقدر يطلع او جنسية , إحنا النا ربنا بس
Translation: People really are managing to leave - almost on a daily basis - via the (Israeli - AA) Kerem Shalom crossing. Anyone who gets out has a first‑degree relative with foreign citizenship; that relative goes to the foreign embassy, requests the evacuation of the family, and coordination is then arranged between the foreign embassy and the Israeli authorities so they can depart through Kerem Shalom. Some patients leave with companions; others leave on student or work visas. Anyone with foreign residency or citizenship can go. As for us, we have only Allah.
And from April 17 in Northern Gaza Strip:
West Bank
From the opening ceremony of the luxurious Icon Mall in Ramallah, which sparked outrage among Gazans 👆:
"We are at war and burying our dead in Gaza, while in Ramallah they're celebrating."
The ikar (main idea)?
There is not one “Palestinian reality.” There are those living under Palestinian sovereignty in decent, even great, conditions, and those under other, worse, conditions.
More or less like the rest of the world?
Palestinian Authority Central Council
From the Palestinian Authority Central Council in the past few days:
PA Chairman Urges Hamas to Release Hostages and End Control of Gaza
Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas, speaking before the PA Central Council, called on Hamas to release the Israeli hostages as a step toward discrediting Israel’s justification for continuing the war in Gaza:
“Those [Hamas] who caused the catastrophe ("Nakba" in this case meaning the Hamas dictatorship in the Gaza Strip) by seizing control of the Gaza Strip in 2007 gave Israel the pretext and power to devastate Gaza.”
Mahmoud Abbas urged Hamas to:
Release the hostages to counter Israel's claims about the necessity of ongoing military operations.
End its rule over the Gaza Strip and hand over its weapons to the Palestinian Authority.
Transform into a political party operating under the legitimacy of the Palestinian state.
In the words of Mahmoud Abbas (in the above clip):
"Release the hostages, you sons of dogs!"
Israel
As mentioned in #173, the IDF released a few members of the air force who had signed letters calling for the war to end and the hostages to be released. Note that the released service members were neither active duty nor under reserve call-up orders: They were volunteering. (There has been a lot of this.) It is thought that the IDF misstepped in releasing these service members, as more and more members and retirees of both the IDF and other security agencies are now signing similar letters. This has evolved to:
Haaretz from army sources: Due to growing protests among reservists against the war, the IDF has decided to reduce reservists' presence in active combat areas and the number of call-up notices it sends them.
OSINT [Open Source Intelligence: E.g. intelligence available from public data sources]: Something like 10-15 American cargo planes have landed at Israeli airfields in the past 1-2 weeks. Is this some kind of buildup prior to a confrontation with Iran?
Relief Area
Alef (don’t miss this one!)
(Large English subs)
A reader responds on June 7: This video is not entirely fair in roping in the ambulance. Say what you will about haredim but they do provide first aid.
Yes, there are parts of the ambulance system that are staffed by haredim. Also they have lined up in blood drives. Raf thinks the humor stands, but the reality is, perhaps, a slight shade softer.
Bet
Me: Every time they [the Right] blame Oslo and Rabin
(I can't tell you how many times I have heard Israeli right wingers blame today's problems on the Peace Process of the early 1990's and Yitzak Rabin. Where do these people live, exactly? Oh, right. They hear it on Channel 14 and the like.)
Gimmel
Right to left:
Ronen Bar, Hertzi Halevi [IDF spokesperson we all saw many times], The Attorney General, Next in line, Next in line, Hostage Deal
Living hostages, Dead hostages, National Commission of Inquiry [into the war], Phase 2 [of the deal w Hamas], Phase 3
Dalet
[Playing on how those in power from the right constantly claim to be victims of others... when it is they who play the game of empty attacks on everyone.]
The Ultimate Victim
Families of the hostages chase me
The Deep State crucifies me
Families of the killed drink my blood
Hey
Read from right to left:
Zionism - (Photo of Yair Netanyahu, son of Bibi and Sara, who for the war has been kicking back in Florida and spewing attack speech all over Bibi's "enemies" on social media. Bibi recently called Yair a “good Zionist.”)
Treason - (Photo of IDF air force pilots, like those who signed a letter calling for the war to end. All such signers are called traitors by Bibi, Yair and the right wing agitprop machine.)
Vav
Read from right to left:
Bibistim (Bibi fanatics) when hostages die in captivity or are forced to live on one pita a day.
Bibistim when demonstrators wave pitot to make their point during demonstrations calling for the war to end and the hostages to be released.
Zayin: Ditto
Same idea, infamous Bibist pictured: Idit Silman (A “very problematic person” in the words of a friend. She is the MK who resigned from the governing coalition of Prime Minister Bennet and caused that government to fall, which lead to the current government.)
Q: Is she the one you once posted a video of visiting October 7 victims and getting shouted out/chased out of the hospital?
A: Yes.
Chet: More about Bibistim....
Top: When a spy from an enemy country (Qatar) is in a cabinet meeting.
Bottom: When people put pitas on the highway (in protests)
Tet
Is it a plane?
A bird?
Oh, my G-d it’s the PITA MAN!
(Idit Silman again. Back when she resigned the governing coalition in 2022 she said it was because the Minister of Health was going to allow chametz to be brought into hospitals during Pesach, which said Minister was doing to conform with a Supreme Court decision. So here she is getting upset about chametz again….)
Yod
And if you press O twice, he will bang on the table.
[The Qataris controlling Bibi… And it’s consistent with Bibi’s constant refrain that he didn’t decide any of the problematic things… others did…]
Chaf
(Trump and Erdogan of Turkey, quoting Trump)
Be reasonable!
[What Trump actually said to Bibi in relation to Trump’s new close relationship with Erdogan.]
Lammed
Regarding Bibi's [politically motivated] firing of Shabak (Israeli FBI) chief Ronen Bar [who is investigating Bibi's office vis-a-vis Qatargate]:
(Spoofing on right wing podcasts and the way Channel 14 discusses such things.)
Why didn't Ronen Bar wake up Bibi on the morning of October 7? [Bibi and his minions blame Israeli intelligence for October 7]
What do you mean? Ronen woke him up at 5:15AM! [Bibi's team has sought to falsify the records of that morning to cast aspersions on the Israeli defense establishment]
Why didn't Ronen Bar let the Prime Minister sleep? [Changing the subject... What Bibi's propagandists do when they are caught out]
Mem: Guard dogs of Democracy [Israeli TV channels]
The poodles have... rolled over a lot in response to pressure.
The pile of poo, well… you have heard Channel 14 mentioned a few times in this feed…
Nun
October 6, 11:00PM: The Shabak updates the Gaza division
October 7, 1:33AM: The Southern Command receives the updates
October 7, 3:03AM: The Shabak updates all agencies
October 7, 5:15AM: Order issued to update Netanyahu's Defense Committee
"Welcome to the weekly True News in Your Face..." [Spoof on news show...]
Pey
Bibistim / Ben Gviristim
If you can ask Hamas to stop making hostage videos that raise the price of their release, that would be great.
Samech
Ayin: Iran [reportedly non fiction]
A watermelon truck overturned near a flowing canal in Bushehr Province, Iran.
Happy Iranian citizens began fishing out cool watermelons from the water...
A once-in-a-lifetime event?
Well, I am happy to report that I fixed my ice maker. Just in time for warmer weather. It seems I didn't use it for a few months and it froze solid. I turned off the fridge and let a hair dryer blow on it for an hour or two.
Tada! I've got ice!
On a more serious note, it is Yom HaShoa. In years past, I had a practice to read one book each year about WWII or the Holocaust. This practice went by the wayside for some time until I recently read The Zookeepers Wife by Diane Ackerman. A footnote in that led to my current read: Surviving in the Rubble: The Last Rebels of the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising by Leon Naiberg. I have a hard copy. It is also free on archive.org.
Today, more than one of us started to run for a shelter when the Yom HaShoa siren went off. I figured it out 30 seconds in. I've heard it took others longer. (American attacks on the Houthis have dramatically reduced their missile attacks... but there was a Houthi-caused red alert in Haifa within the past day.)
To Peace,
Raf
(Thank you A.K., M.T., D.P., N.P.)