Is Raf OK? -- Installment #173
2025-04-13 -- Tel Aviv & Lisbon
First Time Here? Readers suggest starting with the expanded Gaza Explainer in #133 and #120.
Tags: 10 Min Read; Videos; Jumbo Humor; Raf Analysis
Updates:
#171 was updated to expand on the topic of the IDF using Gazans as human shields.
This entry had some typos and formatting items fixed after email release.
Mail
American Jews... Vote Today!
If your primary residence is in the U.S., you can vote in the World Zionist Congress. It is quick. It is part of the decision making that allocates over $1 billion in Israel.
Review the slates, and then vote. I would be tempted to vote for Hatikvah or Mercaz USA.
Regional History
March 31 marked one year since Israel's most daring strikes in decades: The attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria (about six months after October 7th), in which senior Iranian General Mohammad Reza Zadeh was killed.
He was the commander of the Syria-Lebanon sector in the Iranian Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards. In other words, a major player in Iran's regional clusterfuck machine. An agent of destruction.
Two weeks later, in response to this bombing, on the night of April 13, the largest-ever missile attack on Israel occurred, which the Iranians called "True Promise 1." This was the first time the Iranians directly attacked Israel from Iranian soil.
In October 2024, the "True Promise 2" missile attack was launched from Iranian territory at Israel, in retaliation for the killing of Ismail Haniyeh--one of the top few leaders of Hamas--on Iranian soil. (Ismail Haniyeh was killed along with his bodyguard/assistant/lover who was in bed with him. Ismail Haniyeh's wife is understood to have inherited the 1-2 billion dollars--intended for Gazans--that he embezzled from Iran and others.)
While there were small rumblings from Iran about "True Promise 3," that would be part of an extreme escalation at this moment, given the huge U.S. buildup in the region.
And Futures
A factor that today's leaders miss: The impressions their actions make on the next generation. Today's adults and young adults.
This is true of all leaders who take drastic, elective decisions:
Iran is facing an uprising of its younger generation against Palestinians. Consider: Iranians have no ethnic, cultural or religious affinity with Palestinians. (Iranian Muslims are Shia, Palestinians are Sunni; Iranians are ethnically Persians, Palestinians are Arab; Iranians speak Persian, Palestinians speak Arabic) Why should Iranians care? Answer: There is no reason. There is a need: Authoritarian regimes, to stay in power, need to focus the populace on an external enemy. Iran has chosen Israel and the U.S. as that enemy. This "worked" until the Iranian populace had to face days a week without electricity, for months, with the concurrent realization of the billions the Ayatollahs sent to Hamas, Hezbollah and Assad.
Every Palestinian and supporter of Palestinian rights has to deal with Hamas itself, which has made clear that it will stick to its guns no matter what. It considers the war a success and has claimed victory loudly and repeatedly.
The Jewish community, globally, could heed the words of Jack Lew, the orthodox Jewish U.S. Ambassador to Israel who just rotated out this past January: "You can’t ignore the impact of this war on future US policymakers." (Full Article, PDF here) -- Raf might add: Impact of the war on future policymakers worldwide...
And Parallels
In #172 I discussed a crisis: Today's "forever war" in Gaza (and the region) has resulted in IDF reservists simply not showing up.
This has evolved to:
950 IDF officers signed the above letter demanding an immediate cessation of the war and a deal to release all Israeli hostages. The IDF confirmed that of the 950, 60 are active reserve service members, and a few of those are qualified pilots. The rest are in staff positions. All were dismissed from reserve service.
(The rest of the signatories former--retired--service members.)
There is something of a parallel in the U.S.:
The U.S. military has faced a recruiting shortfall for years. The U.S. Navy and Air Force are reported to be short by over 2700 pilots. (Yes, the U.S. Navy has lots of pilots... for example on aircraft carriers.) U.S. Navy vessels are chronically understaffed and often unable to maintain combat readiness. (Full Article, PDF here)
In other words, neither the IDF nor the U.S. military are as strong as they are thought to be.
The U.S. has a total of sixteen aircraft carriers. Each carrier is the center of a whole constellation of support and defense vessels. Fully four of these are currently standing off Yemen and Iran. (There was one until a couple weeks ago.) Available data indicates to Raf that this may represent %65 or more of America's combat ready air power projection. (A map.)
To combat the Houthis--a group that geopolitically could be called a rag tag group of Iranian backed militiamen.
How do you define victory?
And the Present
The U.S. has been building up military assets in the region (aircraft carriers, staging bombers in the region). Iran has published footage of its underground "missile cities" and has put out press pieces saying that rockets are ready to launch.
Raf's Perspective
War is terrible. We fear it for a reason. We push peace for a reason. In years past, brief conflicts in Gaza were horrible for all involved, and those conflicts lasted days or weeks. Here we are, in the middle of a multi-year hot conflict that has traumatized everyone locally and swaths around the world ("thank you" social media?).
In the addition I made to #171, I expanded on something I have been talking about since the beginning of the war: What is a human shield? In #23 I suggested that the term itself isn't up to the task. That was in the first few weeks of the war. In #38 the topic was also discussed, from multiple angles.
The widespread corruption and exploitation of Gaza suffering (a multi-billion dollar, multi-decade industry supercharged by this war) extends to the office of the Israeli Prime Minister. The most complete and up to date write up I have seen about Qatargate in English is this piece by Matti Friedman.
Does this make all of us human shields?
Dept of The Invisible
Items invisible in the Western media. (Now combined with the Postmark concept, to help consolidate topics by locale.)
Turkey
Since we are all short on things to worry about....
Turkish President Erdogan's "blessings" on the occasion of Eid al-Fitr:
"We see what is happening in Palestine and I ask Almighty Allah to destroy Zionist Israel and make it weak and defeated."
One analysis: Turkey under Erdogan's rule is a more powerful and dangerous enemy than Iran.
Quick Comparison:
Turkey (population: 86 million):
GDP: $1.455 trillion (nominal, 2025) = $3.614 trillion (PPP, 2025)
GDP rank: 17th (Nominal, 2025) 12th (PPP, 2024)
GDP per capita: $16,876 (nominal; 2025) $41,913 (PPP; 2025)
GDP per capita rank: 55th (Nominal; 2024) 54th (PPP; 2024)
Iran (population: 92 million):
GDP: $463.747 billion (nominal; 2025 est.) = $1.782 trillion (PPP; 2025 est.)
GDP rank: 36th (nominal; 2024) 23rd (PPP; 2024)
GDP per capita: $5,300 (nominal; 2025 est.) $20,369 (PPP; 2025 est.)
GDP per capita rank: 117th (nominal; 2024) 93rd (PPP; 2025)
The Turkish economy is at least double the size and GDP per capita is double or triple that of Iran.
Syria
Over the past couple of weeks, the IDF has been attacking a couple of already-decimated Syrian airfields. One of them is known as T4. The reason: Turkey plans to start operating its air force, and air defenses, from these locations.
The whole vector here is a genuine regional escalation, with Israel coming into conflict with Turkey, a NATO member.
Iran
April 6: A brave Iranian woman arrived with the Israeli flag at Palestine Square in Tehran, stuck the flag on the sign with the square's name and declared that from now on it's - Israel Square.
She sent the video to the Israeli Foreign Ministry's Persian page.
Gaza
An updated control map of the Gaza Strip, compiled by Ben Tzion Macales from open source information.
In yellow: The area under IDF control from the renewal of the fighting on March 18 until March 26.
In orange: The IDF’s ground advance in recent days – there are four areas marked in orange:
Something Raf learned:
Deir al-Balah (circled in green) -- in the center of the Strip -- has never been evacuated since the outbreak of fighting on October 7. The IDF has avoided the area for ground operations, allegedly due to concerns about harming hostages.
But now, Hamas is firing rockets from Deir al-Balah.
Above Top: Islamic Jihad Terrorists Threaten Medical Staff at Nasser Hospital in Khan Yunis
Above Bottom: The Director of the Nursing Department at Nasser Hospital in Khan Yunis reports receiving death threats from the military wing of Islamic Jihad after requesting that armed gunmen not hide inside the hospital.
He explained that he needs the hospital to be free of armed men in order to protect the hospital and ensure it can continue providing medical services to civilians. Instead, he has now become the target of threats.
About Those Protests
Gazan sources affiliated with Fatah report that Hamas is carrying out arrests in the Gaza Strip of people who participate in the demonstrations against it.
Below: The funeral of one of the protesters who was tortured and killed by Hamas. It includes calls for vengeance against the criminal gang Hamas:
I will spare you the clip of a ten year old Gazan boy screaming at the camera as he gets out of an ambulance: His family was celebrating the end of Ramadan when their house was attacked by the IDF. Because Hamas was using the family's presence as a shield.
Earlier today, on Eid al-Fitr, members of a Gazan family injured in an Israeli attack step out of an ambulance while cursing Hamas at the hospital entrance.
In the clip, the family members tell the cameras that Hamas operatives had been hiding next to them, which lead to the strike and placed them in immediate danger.
Protests Against the War & Hamas Have Resumed
After Hamas killed a number of protest leaders a week ago (the reports I saw said six were killed), protests stopped for a few days. Now they are back. In multiple spots.
West Bank
PA Chairman Abbas Calls on Hamas to "Give Up":
"Hamas must prevent the occupation from continuing its aggression by not giving the occupation a justification to continue on this path. It must protect their lives and end their suffering in the Gaza Strip."
Over the past month or so, there have been several calls of this kind from Fatah and PA leadership.
Israel
IDF released material found in Gaza tunnels: A letter from Hamas Leadership to Iran's IRGC requesting $20 million a month for two years to destroy Israel. Iran responded positively.
Amazing what was in those tunnels (about half of which remain).
On a hilltop perhaps 100km away:
Samaritans celebrate Passover on mount Gerizim. (The Samaritans also keep a slightly different calendar and celebrate Passover one day earlier.)
Not Relief
Not Alef: I take my 3-year-old out of Gymboree after two hours against his will.
(That is the title it was posted with.)
This is at the Supreme Court hearing regarding Bibi's firing of the chief of the Shabak. The firing has been challenged as a politically motivated conflict of interest, and the Supreme Court has to decide. There were protests within the courtroom and without.
This is Bibi's Agitprop Queen Tally Gotliv, who loves to make a stink (think Marjorie Taylor Green). In this clip she is sitting in the Supreme Court, during the hearing to decide the fate of Bibi's decision on the Shin Bet chief, and she was making a noisy scene. The justices paused the proceedings and asked her to leave. She refused. This is her interaction with the court police in which she yells, "You won't kick me out of here!"
And then she (and the right generally, like Channel 14) go on screaming that the political Right is being silenced.
Not Bet: For Israeli Readers
(Factoid: This blog launched with close to %100 north American readership. Starting a few months into the war, nearly all new subscribers have been in Israel.)
Know who the U.S. is giving fast track refugee status to? White Afrikaners in South Africa. (Full article. PDF here.)
And refugee processing for the rest of the world has been shut down.
What do you make of this?
Relief Area
Alef
Non fiction, reportedly:
London: Tesla charging stations have been "decorated" with pictures of Elon Musk being himself.
Bet: As of March 30:
In Saudi Arabia, they announced yesterday that the new moon had been sighted, so today is already Eid al-Fitr.
In Egypt, on the other hand... they are still fasting today because the month of Ramadan has not ended for them and the holiday only begins tomorrow (the new moon was not observed yesterday in Egypt nor in Jordan).
Gimmel
(Given the close advisers to the Prime Minister who are not government employees, and the alcoholic spouse of the Prime Minister, worse has happened in Israel already... e.g. the leak that derailed a hostage deal six months ago)
Dalet
Likud is Strong
Qatar is Strong
(Spoof on Likud campaign stickers)
Hey
Yes Sir!
Qatar is not an "enemy state" it is a "complex state!"
(When Bibi was asked by the press, "Isn't Qatar an enemy state?" He answered, "It's complicated.")
Vav
A terrorist state and sponsor of the October 7 attack in the eyes of Bibi Netanyahu
Zayin
How the Bibists [Bibi fanatics] would react to Qatargate if Bibi were not Prime Minister
(An example: Cashier, probable Likudnik, at my nearby florist, on being told we were on the way to a demonstration: "Oh, stay home and let the government do its job....")
Chet: Pesach Cleaning
A Happy, Kosher Passover to the Whole House of Israel
Tet: Social Media: How It Works:
Yod
Can I pay you in Qatari currency?
(One of the Bibi advisors with his lawyer, who happens to be the same lawyer as represents others in Bibi's crowd.)
Chaf
"Senior Political Figure" (how the right wing quotes leaks from the government)
Office of the Prime Minister
Lammed
Mem
Nun: From the Sports Section:
(Non fiction)
Hapoel Tel Aviv won its first European basketball title after defeating Gran Canaria 103-94 on Friday night in the EuroCup finals in Spain to sweep the series two games to none.
This marks the first time in 21 years that an Israeli team has won the EuroCup, the European Basketball League’s second-tier tournament. (Hapoel Jerusalem won the 2004 title against Real Madrid.)
I am traveling for Passover and can't comment on the protest seders and other demonstrations. Hamas and the Houthis continue to launch rockets. They don’t do any damage, and are mostly intercepted without triggering sirens. That said, there was a siren today in Jerusalem, caused by a Houthi rocket.
To Peace,
Let All Captive People Go!
Raf
(Thank you A.K., M.T., M.R.)