Is Raf OK? -- Installment #172

2025-03-29 -- Tel Aviv

Rafael Zimberoff

Mar 29, 2025

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First Time Here? Readers suggest starting with the expanded Gaza Explainer in #133 and #120.

Tags: 10 Min Read; Videos; Big Relief (Some of it even funny!)

We just passed the 46th anniversary of the Egypt-Israel peace treaty. (March 26, 1979)

Other times are possible.

State of the State: From Haaretz, Sunday, 23.03.2025

(by Amir Tibon, emphasis by Raf)

It's now been almost a week since Israel resumed the war in Gaza, and for anyone who cares about the fate of the hostages held by Hamas in the coastal enclave, there seems to be very little reason for optimism.
While there are diplomatic efforts to reinstate the cease-fire and allow the release of more hostages, their chances of success seem very low at the moment. Israel is intensifying its military campaign in Gaza, and Hamas is sticking to its demand that any temporary cease-fire must be part of a broader agreement to end the war.
If the paragraph above brought you a sense of deja-vu, that's because it's an exact description of how things looked for many months under the Biden administration. The Americans, aided by the governments of Egypt and Qatar, tried to broker a cease-fire agreement, but couldn't overcome the fact that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu only agreed to a temporary pause in the fighting, while Hamas demanded a formula that would end the war.
The Biden team tried to square this circle for 13 months, between the collapse of a week-long cease-fire and hostage release agreement in late November 2023, and the signing of a longer deal in January 2025.
Throughout this period, Biden presented one plan and then another, gave speeches, called Netanyahu again and again over the phone, but nothing happened. Even the killing of top Hamas leaders Mohammad Deif, Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar did little to move the negotiations, which remained completely stuck.
Then, in the weeks leading up to Donald Trump's inauguration, things suddenly began moving. What eventually made the signing of a deal possible was Witkoff's arrival to Israel on a Saturday morning in mid-January – an unusual move that broke unwritten diplomatic codes in the country [arriving on a Shabbat to conduct official business] – and a conversation with Netanyahu that caused the premier to sign the deal.
Netanyahu never wanted it: he cares more about the survival of his governing coalition, which relies on the support of fanatic politicians who oppose any hostage deal, than he does about the hostages. But once it became clear that Trump wants to free the hostages in time for his swearing-in ceremony, the prime minister was left with no choice.
But Witkoff's approach on that Saturday morning was very different than the one he showed in a recent interview with Tucker Carlson, which aired this weekend. To understand how we got from Netanyahu begrudgingly signing a deal two months ago to the IDF renewing the war to the tune of desperate protests from the hostage families, all you have to do is listen carefully to this interview – and internalize what it means about the Trump administration's approach to the Middle East.
Witkoff, a candid man who cares deeply about the hostages, told Carlson the truth – that many in Israel perceive Netanyahu as indifferent to the hostages and their families, and that they think he prioritizes other things over saving them. But he also made it clear that even if the Trump administration may have a different view of the situation, they were not going to challenge the Israel's prime minister– not even after admitting, in the same breath, that public opinion in Israel itself is not with Netanyahu on this issue.
This doesn't mean that all hope is lost for the hostages – although we're very close to that point. It does mean that the effort by the hostage families so far to convince the Trump administration to run an "America First" policy on this issue, and not allow Netanyahu and Ron Dermer to set the terms of the negotiations, has failed.
The [Trump] administration is negotiating under terms dictated by Netanyahu and Dermer, just like the Biden administration did for so many months. Netanyahu and Dermer, as more than 90 percent of the hostage families will attest, don't care about the hostages, and don't mind abandoning them in the tunnels if it increases Netanyahu's chances of holding onto power.
Witkoff presented earlier this month, and repeated in the Carlson interview, his idea of a "bridge proposal" between Israel and Hamas, one which would create another temporary cease-fire, without getting a clear commitment from Netanyahu to end the war in return for the release of the hostages.
This is a great idea, but so was Biden's speech from May 2024. At the end of the day, if this administration isn't willing to use its popularity in Israel to push for an end-of-war agreement in return for the release of all hostages, it will end up in the same frustrating place as the previous one.

I have attended protests outside the home of Bibi advisor Dermer, and have posted pictures. The below clip solicits people to come tomorrow (March 30) to pray for the hostages’ release outside Dermer’s home:

Dept of The Invisible

Items invisible in the Western media. (Now combined with the Postmark concept, to help consolidate topics by locale.)

Lebanon

A massive ramp up in IDF attacks on Lebanon following some number of rockets at Israel. Including, with advance warnings, attacks on specific Hezbollah buildings within Beirut. For the first time in four months, the IDF is attacking in Beirut.

Gaza

Gallup Says:

Most Palestinians would relocate from Gaza strip if given opportunity
Most respondents were in favor of temporary relocation, with some seeking permanent relocation and a small minority in favor of sending relatives abroad.

Surveys of Gazans have been cited in #55 and others. In #56, I cited a survey of Gazans from months prior to the war:

In a survey in June [2023], well before the war, the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research found that 29 percent of Gazans wanted to emigrate due to the political, security and economic conditions. In September [2023], a spate of media reports talked about rising emigration....

First Civil Demonstrations in Some Months: Against Hamas & Al Jazeera

A demonstration with hundreds of participants has been taking place for the last hour in Beit Lahia in the northern Gaza Strip. The protesters are waving signs calling for an end to the war.
In the first few seconds of the below video, you can notice a large white flag waving overhead - a flag symbolizing surrender.
The demonstration was organized by Fatah supporters, members of the "Badna Naish" ("We Want to Live") group.
Although the demonstration does not carry signs against Hamas, it is definitely aimed at senior Hamas figures.
Supporters of "Badna Naish" are calling on Gazans throughout the Strip to join and take part in similar demonstrations calling for an end to the war.
It is reported that "classic" social media channels affiliated with Hamas ignore the demonstration and are not reporting it.
It is reported that some Gazans believe that the demonstration participants will "earn" a nightly visit from Hamas security personnel.

The protesters chant "Hamas out, out".
The protesters also call out: Where is the press? (so that it can film the demonstration and the chants).
The photographer notes that Al Jazeera reporters, including Anas al-Sharif, entered the Indonesian hospital building so as not to film the demonstration.

And then... Hamas showed up and dispersed the demonstration.

The Saudi Al-Hadath Channel (Al-Arabiya) published videos from this demonstration, where participants explicitly chanted:
Hamas out, Hamas out. (The white flag is also raised).

There have been protests against Hamas in multiple places, including the Jabaliya RC in the northern Gaza Strip and in a few neighborhoods of Gaza City.
And a protest in Khan Yunis (central Gaza, city of Sinwaar): Protesters chant: "to the point of disgrace, they sold Gaza for dollars" and "Hamas is a terrorist, Hamas is a terrorist"
Even to the point of burning stacks of tires.

Today's Gaza Map

The IDF controls the areas in yellow.
This is an "OSINT" based map -- e.g. compiled from public sources, such as social media feeds. Created by Ben Tzion Macales, based on Palestinian reports, reports from the IDF spokesman, and satellite imagery.

Strategy(?)

The current wave of attacks in Gaza appears to have the goal of eliminating the political leadership of Hamas. Many of the targets are relatively unknown, as their roles were enforcing Hamas' hegemony within Gaza.

Below is a picture of the Hamas Political Bureau before the war. Six members fled abroad prior to October 7 (did they know what was coming?).

Yahya Sinwar – Eliminated
Khalil Al-Hayya – Outside the Strip ✈️
Nizar Awdallah – Outside the Strip ✈️
Mahmoud al-Zaher – In the Strip
Rawhi Mushtaha – Eliminated
Fathi Hamadi – Outside the Strip ✈️
Sameh al-Sarraj – Eliminated
Marwan Issa – Eliminated
Salah al-Bardawil – Eliminated
Jamila al-Shanti – Eliminated
Fatima Al-Akhras – In the Strip
Ghazi Hamad – Outside the Strip ✈️
Ismail Barhoum – Eliminated
Sahil al-Hindi – Outside the Strip ✈️
Zakaria Abu Ammar – Eliminated
Jawad Abu Shamaleh – Eliminated
Kamal Abu Aun – Outside the Strip ✈️
Essam al-Daalis – Eliminated
Osama al-Mazini – Eliminated
Maher Sabra – In the Strip
Muhammad Jamasi – Eliminated
Yasser Harb – Eliminated

Based on available information, there are three living members of Hamas' political bureau in the Gaza Strip: Mahmoud a-Zaher, Maher Sabra and Fatima Sharab (al Akhras).

West Bank

The Fatah movement is calling on Hamas to relinquish power in the Gaza Strip in order to save the existence of the Palestinian people.

Israel

Demonstrating, Worth It? (Short clip w/English subs.)

Below: As seen on Facebook: Dedicated to Israeli Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara, the biggest safeguard against Bibi, whose coalition just voted to impeach her:

The Israeli people owe you a thank you, for guarding the edge of democracy in Israel.

Below: Haredim in the army:

Below:

All the women (hostages)
as part of
Freeing all the hostages

Said in three words.

Semitic languages...

Toll of a Forever War?

As the extended crises has brought Gazans to the streets, with Hamas beatings and executions a reality, one sign of the toll in Israel is that the populace... is worn out. A friend, a combat officer in his late 40's, father and businessman, has served 450 days of reserve combat duty.

450 days.

Another friend, with a son in mandatory service, told me a week or two ago, "I am going to ask him that if his unit is sent back to Gaza that he request a different responsibility [that would exempt him from entering Gaza]. He'll do what he thinks is right, but I'm his Mom. I can ask once. Put it out there."

(As I understand it, it is typically possible for combat soldiers to decline deployment. It typically results in a kind of demotion--to a less desirable role or situation, but by reports the IDF does not compel combat service.)

Then, two days ago in Haaretz:

IDF Warns of Crisis: Many Reserve Soldiers Won't Report Due to Recent Decisions by Israel's Government
Several senior reservists warned of a 50 percent fall in the rate of reporting for duty. One senior reservist said that brigade and battalion commanders are dealing with scores of cases in which reservists have announced they will not report for duty, in most cases due to the violation of the hostage deal.

(Full article, PDF here)

Similar reports are showing up in other Israeli journals.

300,000 reservists shows up when the war started.

Today we face soldiers serving 200, 300, 400 days of combat reserve service…

Many thousands of them by now.

Department of "doh," right?

Relief Area

Alef - Eretz Nehederet

Bet (below): I hear that he’s also looking to buy a bridge...

(Credit: M.R.)

Gimmel

(Bottom says: Zionism = Feminism)

Dalet

In Israel, there are only three seasons: Summer, Winter and War
Hanoch Levin

Hey: Is that a SpaceX Rocket?

(Something else?)

Vav

Nowruz celebrations - the Persian New Year in the Iranian Kurdistan region.

But…

Iran: On the first trading day after the Nowruz holiday (Persian New Year), the Iranian currency loses more than 4% of its value and trades at an unprecedented low:

1.04 million rials to one US dollar.

Zayin

(Spoof on the [Bee Gees](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_Deep_Is_Your_Love_(Bee_Gees_song), derived from the album cover.)

Bibi has been ranting on and on about the "deep leftist state" that is fighting him. (Otherwise known as most of the population of the country.)

Chet

Remember when Trump said a few weeks ago that all the hostages would be released by noon?
Everyone who isn't a Bibi fanatic ("Bibist") remembers.

Tet

Every time a a gate keeper [of separation of powers] does his professional job
Bibi: This is an attack on our democracy!

Yod

Reconstruction of Nir Oz [Israeli village destroyed in the October 7 attack] Crowdfunding Campaign

(The ultra religious, driven by Bibi, making off with a huge haul from the just passed national budget.)

Chaf

[newly appointed] Defense Minister Katz:

[On left]: I want YOU for 500 days of reserve military service
[On right]: I want YOU for my government coalition (to the religious)

Lammed

(read from left to right)

Knesset members from the coalition and opposition
(bottom)Reserve soldiers

From some demonstrations I've attended in the past two weeks:

End the war now!
The government gave up on the hostages. WE DIDN’T!

(The covered part: remove broken code -- e.g. the government)

In Two Words: Complete Failure! [the government]

Messiah versus Living Citizens
[picturing far right ministers who openly prefer ongoing war over releasing the hostages]

Above, Jerusalem, March 23.

Above: Habima Square, Tel Aviv. March 27. Speaking, father of a living hostage.

If you are Israeli, you can sign a petition by the Movement for Quality Government (an Israeli NGO) demanding a state inquiry into October 7.

In the “plain life” department:

I went to a most fascinating play at the Gesher Theater: Souls by Roy Chen. Everything I have seen at Gesher is amazing. They project subtitles in English and Russian. (Souls was in Hebrew and Russian.) I walk there from my place.

Highly recommended.

To Peace,

Raf