Updated 2023-12-19 to replace the word “accident” with “crash” in reference to the hazard of roads on Washington State. (Thank you N.B.)
Tags: 4 Min Read
Yesterday I included an installment from a reservist. I have seen only a few posted to a chat group. This morning's mailbag had a note, "Oh, Yoni, son of a close friend. Here is his the full document, 50+ entries, 60+ pages."
Thought
What Is Risk
In the months leading to my move to Israel, some expressed concern about my safety. These concerns shot to the fore October 7.
I have long thought about how people perceive risk and exposure. For example, freeways are high risk places. Yet people who are concerned about exposure wandering around Tel Aviv or Jerusalem get on a U.S. freeway without second thought.
Without trying to do a deep risk comparison, I thought I'd ask: What is the risk on the roads in Washington State (my most recent U.S. address)? I asked the Washington DOT web site for all fatal and serious injury crashes statewide in 2022. It came up with 3329 reports.
Now the state of Washington is about 8 million people. (For crude purposes, I am considering each report to mean only one person killed or injured-this understates impact by %10-20 based on my research.) That works out to about half a percent over a 10 year period. Firearms kill more people each year than cars. If we assume a similar injury/impact rate,[1] we end up with an "impact" (e.g. killed or seriously injured) rate of over one percent over ten years.
That is real risk, taken without thought. I can't think of anyone who said, "You know, I don't live in Washington because it is dangerous."
Antisemitism
Comedian David Baddiel seems to wrap it up well in Ha’aretz. (PDF here.)
Seen
60 Minutes: Released Hostage Yarden Roman-Gat Interview
In English. The questions unanswered are, perhaps, one of the larger messages. 14 Min.
Shuk HaCarmel Today
Soupking signs say: “Wanted: Waiter” and “We are closed today.”
And last night over my neighborhood:
Relief Area
Alef
Bet
Coming up short again, apologies. If you didn't catch Bill Maher yesterday, give that a try (8 minutes). The tragic killing of the three hostages by the IDF has everyone mourning (especially as it comes after an IDF soldier killed Yuval Kastelman--the Israeli hero first on the scene at a recent shooting attack). I heard a just-released reservist asked “How can these things happen?” The answer: “מתח מבצעי” which seems to best translate as: “Operational stress.”
In a time of war, everyone shifts to "supporting the troops" mode (practically and emotionally). These events put a dent in the sentiment.
That is the news. Went to an experimental yoga class this morning (Yin Yoga). Found the shuk in great shape, but since it is not packed by tourists, a number of elderly in wheelchairs were being pushed about. They looked very happy. (It is normally too packed to get through in a wheelchair.)
Stay well,
Raf
(Thank you A.K. & A.B.K.)
[1] Because I am trying to measure "effect" or "impact" not only "death." My survey of the data indicates the 10 year impact is %0.75-1.25. My math: 3329 / 8 Million = 0.0004; 0.0004 * 10 = 0.004 (about one half of one percent, or one in two hundred). This seems fair partly because I am aiming low (assuming only one "impacted person" per "report" of fatal/serious injury crash). I saw a table showing that the "number killed" per crash is about %10 higher than the number of crashes. Using that for fatalities and injuries puts us at: (3329 x 1.1) / 8 Million = 0.00046. Over ten years and rounded takes us to 0.005, or half a percent. Now all the reports I found said gun deaths kill more than road crashes. If I say that the "serious injury ratio to fatalities" for guns is similar to that of car crashes (a guess), we end up at one percent “impact” over ten years.