Background... Short Term Memory
Walking home last night:
מטה המשפחות להחזרת החטופים והנעדרים
Headquarters of families for the return of the abducted and missing
A few blocks from my apartment:
Data Points:
a) The count of estimated captives has been going up nearly every day, and is now north of 240. (Discussed below.)
b) Those folks have been living (we think and hope) in tunnels for about a month now.
Heard & Observed
My day started with a friend talking about what goes on in her house: "All my son's friends have been called up for reserves, and spent the last week in Gaza. In high school they always came to my house to hang out and eat. They still do: When they get a day off from Gaza. It is hard seeing the fear they mask. Their inner anxiety about going back. One of my friends has four sons who right now are all in Gaza."
Two friends have reported emotional breakdowns in the past two days.
Doctrine
In the days after "Black Sabbath" (October 7), an Israeli defense official was quoted saying that the residents of Gaza will all be living in tents. There are two reasons for this:
The military infrastructure of Gaza is largely in tunnels—150-250 miles of tunnels.
Those tunnels exit through houses, mosques and hospitals across Gaza
Israeli doctrine accounts for Islamic doctrine. Why? America learned in the aftermath of 9/11 that the terrorists from Bin Laden believed they would go to a (very) happy heaven when they died. This means that standard deterrence doesn't work (e.g. if you attack me, you get killed, so don't attack me). Years ago, Israeli doctrine evolved to: Attack me, and your family will be homeless (because we will ask the family to move out, and will then blow up the family house). Men in their teens and twenties tend to love their mothers (if not themselves). So, in the sphere of imperfect deterrents, this is the imperfect approach Israel has used.
The need for deterrence reflects the humanity’s imperfection
There are an estimated 40,000 active in the Hamas military at this time.
So between tunnel entrances, stashes of arms and households of Hamas, that is a lot of buildings to blow up.
Divisiveness
My cousin Sheryl Dworkin reminded me how I used to respond to pro-Trump Israelis: What is more important to you? A rah rah leader who says things you want to hear (because his advisors told him to); or, A strong, robust United States? In Trump, you get the first while degrading the second.
Sheryl uses an angle I didn't think of: Use Bibi Netanyahu's (in)famous divisiveness as an example. Israelis, understandably, don't track the mechanics of U.S. politics. Use the Israeli experience of how Bibi has damaged Israeli society and politics to illustrate.
Bringing us to Senator Josh Hawley
Senator Josh Hawley is a far right U.S. Senator from Missouri. (Among other things, he agitated to block the certification of the 2020 presidential election.)
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security had an incident recently of a staff member posting pro-Hamas material on social media.
A clip of Senator Hawley grilling the DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas on this matter circulated in many American Jewish groups. In a chat group Raf flagged it as inappropriate political content. In the face of nearly the entire group "but [Senator Hawley's] message is soooo important!" and "the Senator’s background doesn't matter because he is so 'on message' related to Hamas!"
Why Raf flagged it:
Senator Hawley is a Trump-style politician who will beat up any government agency over any matter.
That week, Hamas gets television airtime. So the Senator talked about Hamas.
Get fucking real. DHS has over two hundred thousand employees. In a group that large there are (have always been...), statistically speaking, some number of Neo Nazi's, KKK members, Communists and other ideologies. Consuming limited committee time on the activities of one or a few junior individuals in a large organization is actively harmful to the process of governing.
This is what divisive political leaders do: They consume the limited oxygen of governance with anger-provoking theater. Actual governing is tedious (and typically boring). When it is turned into theater, particularly of the abusive kind (what Senator Hawley did), the message is the spectacle, the theater itself, not the content.
The "content" sounds "right" to you? Today it may. Tomorrow it won't be a topic you care about. The theater damages the institution of the DHS. The point of the theater is to make viewers distrust a government institution. The point of the theater is to weaken the government of the U.S. by weakening faith in its institutions.
Is that what a pro-Israel activist wants?
(The post about Senator Hawley and all responses were deleted by the group admins.)
Gaza Bits
Indonesian Hospital: Still Has Power
Per Arabic language social media, a steady stream of posts, with photos, show the hospital with lights on and functioning per usual.
Contrary to official Palestinian announcements, in English, that this hospital ran out of fuel for its generators.
Jordan: Hospital Supplies Air Dropped
In coordination with Israel, Jordan air dropped supplies to its hospital. (E.g. Make a phone call, help a hospital. This is an angle on the reality: Most hospitals and medical institutions that have been compromised, perhaps at gunpoint, by Hamas.)
Gaza Internet: Israel Intermittently Turns It Off
Per Arabic language resources, Raf understands this to have been done three times so far since the ground invasion, for two to eight hours each time. Raf believes this is done to either:
Hamper communications of Hamas during military operations; or
Force Hamas to use radio and cellular technology, allowing them to be located
Or both. Or neither. The above is speculation.
An ancillary piece of information that surfaced in this regard, in Arabic sources: Egypt has (Raf thinks for years) disabled Roaming support on its cell phone towers. Egypt has some number of cell towers near (and possibly in) Gaza, but these cannot be used by most Gazans because Egypt does not allow them to be used for non Egyptian customers. #GazaIsAGlobalIssue
The Red Cross
A drip, in various inboxes: Requests to "sign petition to the International Red Cross (ICRC) demanding that they visit the hostages and ascertain conditions." The desire to "do something" is understandable. But the ICRC cannot force their way into Hamas' headquarters to visit hostages.
This devolves, again, to sovereignty. A topic that is deliberately pushed out of many discussions. International entities (like the ICRC) function with the permission of the places they operate.
If Hamas were to invite the ICRC in, that would be one thing.
But if Hamas doesn't do that, there isn't a person or entity in the world who can force it to happen.
(Except, possibly, the Israeli army.)
Sovereignty
This is why, when talking about Gaza, failing to mention Egypt is an act of anti-semitism. Egypt is sovereign. If they want an open border with Gaza, they can make it so. Singling out Israel by omitting Egypt foments anti-Israel and antisemitic sentiment (and action).
Hostages
Something I said in the first few days: "Hamas didn't expect this level of 'success.' They thought they would break through in 20 places, and perhaps a few of those breakouts would be successful. They didn't expect them all to be successful. This may, ultimately, be a problem for Hamas: The response triggered by an overwhelming "success" may not be what they want.”
An interview with Gershon Baskin was shared with me. (Thank you A.K.Z.) This seems to indicate a couple of things:
There may be lack of unity within Hamas as to what to do with the hostages. E.g. multiple groups within Hamas who may not all respect terms decided "on top"
Other groups and individuals are thought to hold hostages. A big complication.
What is visible on the outside (to us, via the media etc.) does not reflect what may be going on behind the scenes.
These factors may indicate that the project has gone sideways. While I agree with Harari's assessment that war is Politics By Other Means (PDF here), and that Hamas has been in control of the sequence of events far more than Israel has, it is also true that it is much harder to stop shooting than to start.
Relief Area
Alef
Took my niece out to dinner, towards the end a siren sounded and all of us ran to the shelter with the explosions overhead.
When we got back, every table had shot glasses full of Arak. We Israelis know how to homefront
(Thank you M.T.)
Bet
The latest from the SNL style show, Eretz Nehederet (This Wonderful Land). (The title is part of the joke, content is usually about the things not wonderful.) In English, 3 minutes.
There was a red alert last night. I was at the yoga studio. Conveniently the alert came in the break between two classes, and I was downstairs anyway, waiting. A couple hours later there was another alert, in the next neighborhood over.
There may be shortages in Gaza, but they have plenty of rockets.
Raf
(Thank you A.K., S.P., A.K.Z. and S.D. for content and perspective.)