First Time Here? Readers suggest starting with the expanded Gaza Explainer in #133 and #120.
Top Ten IsRafOK Entries: #85; #123; #128; #140; #144; #154; #161; #162; #164; #171
Tags: 14 Min Read; Raf Analysis; Syrian Mess; Relief & Peaced Off!
Updates: Some minor text edits and enhancements were made after email release. (Thank you M.T.)
I am not the first person to observe this, but you can see peace in Palestine right now. Today. Just go to an Israeli hospital.
Helping Adina deal with an outpatient procedure, I saw:
A young Arab Israeli EKG tech in a shayla (head covering), makeup and false eyelashes tailed by a Jewish Israeli assistant about the same age doing her national service (in lieu of army service). They showered each other with diminutives while they worked.
An Israeli Jewish surgeon who works all day alongside an Israeli Arab anesthesiologist. This surgeon has spent 100 or more days doing reserve duty in and next to Gaza as a surgeon.
Israeli staff soothing an Arab kid in pain after surgery.
These same hospitals and staff treat wounded IDF soldiers.
Mail
Those Kurds...
As I was watching the ceremony with the Kurds turning in their weapons, the thought going through my head was "see, Hamas, it's not that difficult. You walk up to the big container, put your weapon in there, add your ammo belt, and then walk on to the rest of your lives". Then I scrolled down, and saw that I wasn't the only one with that thought....
Houthis Taking Hostages from #193
Great. The Houthis are Iranian proxies in all respects. Missiles, regional disruption and hostages. Just like Hezbollah and Hamas. On the one hand, where is the collaboration to keep Houthi troublemaking confined to Yemen? On the other hand, piracy off the Somali coast was rife for about 20 years (circa 2000-2018), so perhaps there is no known cure. (What Lloyds wrote about it.)
Are you sure #193 Alef is comic Relief? (About the Grok AI system coming to Tesla cars)
Some Relief items are non fiction.
Some are frightening.
Some are both.
I think Alef doesn't go far enough. With Tesla's self driving feature (which I have tried--it's amazing), and the Tesla robotaxi initiative, Grok will be able to drive Jews (and the undocumented? or just Federal employees?) off cliffs. To tribunals (staffed by Tucker Carlson followers from the "Right" and "Free Palestine" activists from the "Left" [Fair and Balanced!]) or whatever turns on Elon.
Tragedy occurs not in literature only...
Dept of The Invisible
Items invisible in the Western media. (Now combined with the Postmark concept, to help consolidate topics by locale.)
Syria
Attack...
The Sunni offensive against the Druze in southern Syria earlier this week:
Syrian regime forces, together with the Bedouins, are advancing along four axes toward the west of Suwayda province and the northwest of the province:
Tha'la route
Hazm route
Kanaker route
T'ara route
Taken ~July 16 - Soldiers from the 82nd Division of Abu Muhammad al-Julani's Syrian Army, who took part in the fighting in Suwayda, talk about their plans to "cleanse the city".
Note the ISIS patch on his Syrian Army military vest: A soldier in the Syrian army & ISIS terrorist.
Who is the new Syrian regime?
There are loads of disturbing videos of dead Druze, including scenes within hospitals where Druze patients were murdered indiscriminately.
Defend...
July 15-16: Druze sheikhs are calling for a general mobilization in an attempt to prevent the entry of regime forces and their supporters into the province, with the aim of disarming the Druze.
As-Suwayda:
The Druze sheikh Marwan Razak, 70 years old, not only calls on all Druze to enlist, he also takes up arms at his advanced age and goes out to battle...
There are Israeli airstrikes in defense of the Druze.
There are reports of the Syrian government using suicide drones against the Druze.
The Syrian government forces include ISIS radicals--which is the context of Syrian leader al-Julani himself. He was an ISIS leader for years. Syrian forces posted videos on the way into Suwayda brandishing scissors to cut off the moustaches of Druze, and then posted many videos of them shaving and cutting moustaches, including of elderly men and dead Druze.
Syrian sources in Suwayda: The Druze sheikh Marhej Shahin, 80 years old, who was captured (above left) by forces of the Syrian regime and had his mustache shaved off as a sign of humiliation. There are reports (unconfirmed) that he was killed by regime personnel.
Bad signs. For Syria and the region.
The U.N. Secretary General
UN Secretary-General: The Syrian government bears responsibility for failing to protect the civilians in Syria.
(Too bad the Secretary General doesn't feel the same way about Hamas.)
Israeli Strikes
The IDF escalated its attacks in defense of the Syrian Druze community, including this attack on the Ministry of Defense in Damascus:
The area of the Syrian Army's General Staff building in Damascus.
According to some reports, the entire building has been destroyed (as yet unconfirmed, though images Raf has seen indicate the complex is extensively damaged).
Israeli strikes included the following targets:
Al-Thaala airfield (10 killed in strikes there)
A convoy of Division 54 forces led by Abu Amsha on the Damascus - Daraa road
Grad rocket launchers from which fire was directed at Suwayda
Two tanks (in the Suwayda area)
A regime convoy with rocket and shell launchers
Headquarters of Brigade 52 in eastern Daraa
Supply and reinforcement lines outside Suwayda (in the Daraa area)
Various points in the Ash Sharqiyah area, where Bedouin militias that attacked the Druze are located.
July 16: The Druze continued their counteroffensive - aiming to drive all Syrian army forces and their supporters out of the Suwayda area. The fighting continued throughout the night. Most of the Suwayda province is now under Druze control.
July 16:
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz:
The signaling in Damascus is over – now painful blows will follow.
The IDF will continue to operate forcefully in Suwayda to destroy the forces that attacked the Druze until their complete withdrawal.
Our Druze brothers in Israel, you can rely on the Israel Defense Forces to protect your brothers in Syria.
Prime Minister Netanyahu and I, as Defense Minister, have made a commitment – and we will uphold it.
Below... I do not know how to digest this. I think it is accurately represented....
Druze in southern Syria cheer for an IDF convoy
IDF ground troops deep in Syria? (On the Golan and the DMZ next to the Golan... that is old news. But part way across Syria to the Suwayda area?)
Israeli Border
(Above: The breach of the fence in the Majdal Shams area is very close to the Syrian Druze village of al-Hader, but is very far from the events in Suwayda, which are taking place about 100 kilometers away as the crow flies.)
Above: Druze who crossed over from Israel, in vehicles, inside Syrian territory.
There was chaos on the Israel-Syria border as 1000's of Druze breached the border fence in both directions--Israeli Druze went to Syria, apparently to help defend the Syrian Druze communities, and Syrian Druze fled to Israel for safety.
I imagine a high percentage of the Druze going to Syria to help are combat veterans of the IDF. IOW trained, skilled soldiers. Not who the Syrian government wants to be in combat with...
Overall, the situation at the border, in terms the world understands: Movement. AKA: Normal human behavior.
Leading To...
Druze in Suwayda, Syria raise the Israeli flag above their homes. (Are these Israeli-Druze cousins, “visiting” from northern Israel, flying their flag?)
"Victory," At The Moment?
Druze waving Druze flags at the entrance to the governor's building in Suwayda. A Star of David was added to one of the flags.
Also here, on July 17:
Suwayda, southern Syria, this evening: the Druze flag and the Israeli flag.
I am not sure this is a good thing. Avoiding involvement in the attacks on Syria's Druze may be untenable for Israel. There is a hard-to-measure-effect of October 7: It cemented the identities of many within Israel's minority community as Israelis. It seems to have forced a question of identity to the center. Messed up as Israel is, a Druze, Bedouin or Israeli Arab is forced to ask themselves, "Would I rather be under the government of Jordan/Syria/Lebanon/Hamas?" and the answer is typically No. Those are poor, oppressed places, that make Israel look wealthy and tranquil.
Were Israel to ignore the plight of Druze who request Israel's help it would cause problems within Israeli society. Israel may well have no practical choice other than involvement. (Yes, keeping Damascus weak is also a geopolitical goal of Jerusalem, but the domestic pressure is real. Druze make up %1.5-2.0 of Israel’s population but are fully integrated into Israeli society. They are patriots who cannot be ignored.)
Whether punishing Damascus is effective “behavior modification” for Syria’s leadership, I don’t know.
The picture is not great. Not good. And could easily spiral.
And
The spiritual leader of the Druze community in Syria, Hikmat al-Hijri:
Suwayda is stricken by disaster.
We declare a general mourning in memory of our fallen. We call to embrace the families of the fallen and to close ranks.
Medical teams and teams documenting the violations must be allowed to carry out their missions.
We demand to open a passage from the Suwayda area toward our Kurdish brothers.
We call on Abdullah, King of Jordan, to open a border crossing between Suwayda and Jordan. This is of humanitarian importance.
Below: What passage to the Kurds might look like:
(And do you see the subtext of the call for Jordan to open it’s border crossing? With the fall of Assad’s regime, many border crossings were closed. Border crossings are a regional issue, not limited to Gaza.)
Around the Druze Region
Are Bedouin towns. Who now suffer from revenge attacks by the Druze.
Dr. Wael al-Sheikh Amin, a Syrian (Sunni) journalist and author living in Istanbul, writes about the flight of Syrian regime forces from Suwayda:
“We fully understand the fact that the Syrian government has come to the conclusion that it is losing the battle in Suwayda, and this could lead to an all-out war that would destroy what remains of Syria.
Therefore, it chose to withdraw from Suwayda and leave the [Druze] militias there, because this was the preferable option. This is completely understandable.
What is not understandable is that now gangs of criminals [Druze] are taking revenge on our people [Bedouins] there.
The question the Syrian government must answer is:
Why didn’t you ensure the safety of our people [the Bedouins] before you left Suwayda? Why didn’t you ensure their safety, why didn’t you evacuate them from there, or at the very least, why didn’t you inform them that regime forces were leaving? The government bears responsibility for the massacres that occurred today [among the Bedouins]. How can what is happening there now be stopped quickly? Let’s hope it doesn’t last long.”
Below: Bedouins fleeing:
After the Ceasefire Comes In:
The Syrian president in a speech after the ceasefire: We are not afraid of war, but we preferred the interest of the people
Around 4AM, after the ceasefire came into effect (and after another Israeli strike in Latakia in western Syria), al-Julani addressed the Syrians:
The Zionist entity has been trying since the fall of the Assad regime to turn Syria into a land of conflict in order to divide our people. We are the owners of this land and we will overcome all attempts by the Zionist entity to tear it apart. The Druze community is an inseparable part of our homeland, and protecting them is a priority for us.
We faced two options - war with Israel or reaching an agreement with the Druze sheikhs. We are not afraid of war, but we prefer the interest of the people over chaos and chose to defend the unity of the homeland. We will ensure that anyone who broke the law and harmed the Druze will be brought to justice. We will appoint people from among the local factions in Suwayda to the task of restoring security.
The Raf comment: The ISIS radicals, members of the official Syrian military, who attacked and killed Druze appear to be the same folks who massacred Alawites in March as documented in #169.
al-Julani says that those who harmed Druze will be brought to justice.
I am not aware that justice was applied to those who harmed the Alawites.
Friday... July 18
It seems the ceasefire in Syria fell apart. Bedouin leaders have called for a general mobilization to attack the Druze.
Shiite social media:
Syrian regime personnel disguise official vehicles and conceal the logo before entering Suwayda to conduct operations against the Druze.
Aleppo University:
Against the backdrop of an attack on Druze students on campus, the president of Aleppo University warns students not to harm Druze students and says he will take action against anyone who does so.
"Suwayda is a part of us, as the president of Syria said."
(Just like American university presidents stood up for Jewish students? [Not?])
In southern Syria just now (July 18), the U.N. appears to be assembling in order to go to the Suwayda area to separate the combatants.
From the feeds I watch, they have their work cut out for them. There appear to be active firefights in a number of areas in and around Suwayda.
Iran
Mysterious bombings (gas leaks?) continue...
Explosion and fire after midnight in a building in a residential neighborhood on Shahriar Street in the city of Mashhad in northeastern Iran. Iranian opposition sources claim that a UAV struck the apartment.
and
Tehran: An explosion and fire this morning in the Kohek area near Lake Chitgar... Opposition supporters wonder if once again it is the responsibility of that pesky Iranian gas company official:
Yemen
The forces of Yemen's legitimate government seized a massive Iranian weapons shipment - the largest they have captured so far - containing 750 tons of ammunition, missiles, rockets, UAVs, and more, which was intended to reach the Houthis in Yemen.
Among the weapons in the shipment of arms seized from Iran en route to the Houthis was the Qaem 118 air defense missile, designed to target UAVs at a range of up to 25 km.
This missile was first disclosed by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards in February of this year - about five months ago. The Iranians are sending the Houthis their newest products, even while being attacked.
Getting Houthi Yemen subdued (and navigation restored) would appear to be in the interest of the International Community. There seems to be little effective action. (What there has been is anti-action... Saudi Arabia made war on the Houthis until the U.S. made them stop in 2021.)
Gaza
Aid Trucks
The GHF announced that deaths at one of its distribution centers yesterday were caused by Hamas terrorists firing in and around crowds, causing a stampede. Even Al Jazeera declined to blame Israel this time:
The Qatari Al Jazeera network is adopting the American version of the events that led this morning to the deaths of Gazans at an aid distribution site in the southern part of the Strip:
13 died and others were injured as a result of suffocation....
Standard dissembling to avoid blaming Hamas directly—Al Jazeera wouldn’t point fingers at Hamas.
And:
A Gazan enthusiastically praises and commends President Trump for half a minute for the food products he managed to obtain from the American aid fund GHF.
Most Wanted Person
Leaflets dropped by the IDF over the Gaza Strip in the past hour reveal the new appearance of the number one wanted man in the Strip: Izz ad-Din al Hadad, Gaza Brigade Commander and current head of Hamas’s military wing in the Strip - following the elimination of Muhammad Sinwar.
It is reported that Gazans that posted pictures of this leaflet quickly deleted their posts. Hamas pressure at work...
Tunnels
On July 15 the IDF announced the destruction of another ~3.5 km of tunnel in southern Khan Yunis:
In the Northern Strip, near Daraj Tofah, the IDF documented the destruction of a tunnel about 800 meters long and appx 18 meters deep:
Relief Area
Alef: Politics, Israel Style
New Report: Study shows Israelis lack a mineral crucial for brain development.
Said about Likud MK Tally Gotliv, Bibi screamer extraordinaire.
Bet: Who is your favorite Jewish comedian of all time?
(I have a huge love for Mel Brooks.)
Gimmel
Dalet
Due to multiple hacks (people getting into the building), the code has been changed to 1948#. Thank you - Building Management
Hey
I am nominating him for the Israel Security Prize
(Jonathan Urich, this is related to the leak of a secret document from the Prime Minister’s office to the Bild newspaper in Germany...)
Vav: Fire One!
(Bibi shooting at the judicial system, the Attorney General hiding in there.)
Zayin #justiceforLeahRabin
(The scandal in the 1970's when it was discovered that the spouse of Yitzhak Rabin had violated the law of the day by having a few thousand dollars in a U.S. bank account. Rabin resigned. Compared to... today...)
Chet: Ben Gvir Beer
When you act like a drunk and you like molotov cocktails.
Kosher Parve
Under supervision of Rabbi Big Dick
Tet
Yod
Syria-Israel Border
Druze
Chaf
Three buses that come together every 30 minutes
Bus every 10 minutes
Ministry of Transportation: They are the same picture
(Comment on the inanities of the Bibist Minister of Transportation Miri Regev)
Lammed
Mem
State Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara
A real superpower and barrier to Bibi and the far right. They are trying to fire her now (her term goes to 2028). This may trigger a constitutional crisis (well, Israel lacks a constitution... but ya know, something of that order).
Nun: A Modest Proposal
(Let’s all be clear that the “radical solution” category is entertaining yet genocidal. Progress will be made incrementally. Tearing down boundaries involves chaos that no one needs. In Russia they like to say, “You can’t make an omelet without breaking eggs.” In human affairs, that’s blood to the ankles.)
Pey
The commander of the division that three soldiers were killed, in an interview to Levint published this morning: "The IDF needs more soldiers. And we know where they are supposed to come from"
I haven't watched/heard this yet, but Gershon Baskin recommends it. Episode Two of the Peaced Off! podcast. Or hear it on Youtube.
In Episode 2, Orly Ravid and Abe Gurko hosted Palestinian political strategist Samer Sinijlawi, live from East Jerusalem. What followed was one of the most emotionally raw and honest conversations Abe has had about Israel and Palestine — a perspective-shift.
To Peace,
Raf
(Thank you A.K., M.T., R.G.)