First Time Here? Readers suggest starting with the expanded Gaza Explainer in #133 and #120.
Tags: 10 Min Read; Raf Analysis; Big Relief Area
The level of October 7 chaos within the IDF is coming to light as the IDF releases its reports. For example:
By 10 a.m. [October 7], three and a half hours into the invasion, [IDF central command] only knew about 60% of the incidents [border breaches].
And, with the death of the Bibas family, I find it hard to dispute this:
For Israel, this news [that Hamas killed the Bibas family while holding them hostage] has likely ended any chance for a two-state solution with the Palestinians—something that could be disastrous for the Palestinians and Israeli security over the long-term.
I was in North America for February. On the day of the Bibas funeral, the Empire State Building in NYC was lit orange:
Some sights seen on return to Tel Aviv:
October 1, 2023 (a week before the October 7 attack): Ronen Bar Metzia proposed to Netanyahu: Let's assassinate Sinwaar. Bibi Refused
[Ronen, ]Head of Shabak (Shin Bet): Don't resign before Bibi does!
Join the March! We Will Not Stop Until All The Hostages Are Back!
In memory of Shiri, Ariel and Kfir Bibas, We Hug You Yarden (the surviving father of the Bibas family)
(I wouldn't know there was such a band, Linkin Park, if not for my kids... But they are big enough to have a Budapest-based tribute group playing in Tel Aviv this weekend. Does this say "back to normal" or "the new-normal" ?)
Mail
I normally don't agree with the Lubavicher Rebbe, but he said when war is thrust upon you, you must do what it takes to be fully victorious. -- Said to me in shul
The IDF did what it did. In Lebanon & Syria, I have trouble imagining a victory more complete. In the West Bank, the battle is ongoing. As for Gaza, there is still a Hamas and it is in control of the population (and food supply). Armchair generals (and actual generals, in the form of General Petraeus) have their ideas of what was done right and wrong. I can't imagine the 1.5 year battle being refought. Whether the lack of "complete victory" is a result of the dysfunction that allowed the disaster in the first place, I don't know. (Though that seems likely.)
Dept of The Invisible
Items invisible in the Western media. (Now combined with the Postmark concept, to help consolidate topics by locale.)
Lebanon
Above: Israeli warplanes flying over Beirut during Nazballah's funeral
Above: One of Nelson Mandela's grandsons has arrived in Beirut to attend the funeral of Hassan Nasrallah. (The conflation of Hezbollah, which is not composed of Palestinians, with the Palestinian cause is… worth noting.)
Above: Lebanese media outlets report that the Maronite Patriarch, Bechara al-Ra'i, has instructed all heads of churches in Lebanon not to attend Nasrallah's funeral tomorrow (he also received a personal invitation from a Hezbollah delegation and does not intend to attend).
For context, below is the bombing of Nasrallah, released by the IDF on the occassion of his funeral:
On September 27, 2024, at 6:21 PM (local time), as part of Operation "New Order," the IDF simultaneously eliminated Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the Hezbollah terrorist organization, along with Ali Karaki, the commander of the southern front, and other senior commanders at Hezbollah's underground headquarters in Beirut, along with additional military infrastructure.
Hezbollah is still trying....
Additionally, it is reported that Israel notified the Lebanese government that if Hezbollah weapons smuggling continues, that attacks will resume anywhere in Lebanon. (There has been a continuous drip of targeted attacks on Hezbollah terrorists during recent weeks.)
Feb 26:
Nawaf Salam's government won an unprecedented majority (in Lebanese terms) in parliament today.
95 of 128 members of parliament expressed confidence in the new government.
12 opposed
4 abstained
(Balance not present)
In Lebanese terms, this is unique in recent decades and remarkable.
Syria
The Recent Visit of Syrian Jews to Damascus
Additional footage from the visit of Syrian Jews to Damascus last week is being shared on social media.
Yosef Hamra and his son Henry returned to the synagogue they left in the early 1990s.
They had left for the United States due to the restrictions imposed by Assad on thousands of Jewish community members who still resided in Syria.
During the visit, they read from the Torah and prayed in the synagogue.
The visit was secured from start to finish by the security forces of Abu Mohammad al-Julani, the President of Syria.
The visit had full approval from the new Syrian regime.
The new Syrian leadership hopes the visit will help promote the lifting of sanctions on Syria, with a particular focus on American sanctions.
Above: The Chief Rabbi of Syrian Jews, Benjamin Hamra, sent a letter to the new Syrian President, Ahmed al-Sharaa, congratulating him on the new development concerning Syrian Jews.
Counterpoint: This same Syrian President is on recent record saying that the upcoming Syrian Constitution will require that the president be Muslim.
March 1: Exchanges of fire in the past 24 hours between armed Druze organizations and forces of the new Syrian regime in Jaramana, east of the capital, Damascus. (Raf has seen video clips that have a lot of small arms fire in the background.)
There are at least two deaths among members of the new Syrian regime.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz have instructed the IDF to prepare to defend the Druze town of Jaramana, located in the outskirts of Damascus and currently under attack by Syrian regime forces: "We will not allow the extremist Islamist terror regime in Syria to harm the Druze. If the regime harms the Druze, it will suffer consequences from us."
"We have instructed the IDF to prepare and to send a strong and clear warning: if the regime harms the Druze, it will be harmed by us. We are committed to our Druze brothers in Israel and will do everything to prevent harm to their Druze brethren in Syria, taking all necessary measures to ensure their safety."
Note: This is not southern Syria, but east of Damascus.
Wiam Wahhab, the Druze leader and head of the Al-Tawhid Party in Lebanon, warns the new Syrian regime against entering Jaramana, east of Damascus, stating that such an action would mark the regime’s downfall.
New Alliance?
Three videos of Druze military groups from various villages in the Suwayda district were published in the past 24 hours, in which they openly announce joining the "Suwayda Military Council" - a body that was established after the overthrow of the Assad regime.
These statements, alongside events in Kurdish regions and Bibi's recent demand for a demilitarized southern Syria point to an effort at a new regional alliance: Israel, the Kurds and the Druze.
(Yes yes, this alignment is old and not new. Israel has allied itself with both of those tribes for decades. This is, however, a fresh configuration.)
There are also reports that Israel has taken steps to offer employment to residents of southern Syria, whereby they would be given day permits to enter Israel to work (usually in construction jobs). These jobs pay much more in Israel than they do in Syria. Historically, these jobs were done by West Bank Palestinians, who lost most access to the Israeli labor market after October 7.
Israeli Defense Minister Katz on this topic (via Amit Segal):
We have a great commitment to our Druze friends in Syria. We are considering allowing those nearby to come and work in the Golan Heights on a daily basis, and we are preparing to provide them with assistance through organizations and in various ways.
Above: The imagined map of the future "Druze-Kurdish Federation" (in yellow).
Below: A Druze resident of Suwayda (southern Syria), wearing military uniform, openly declaring loyalty to the State of Israel.
Things are changing quickly in southern Syria?
He is openly opposing the new Syrian regime and is not afraid of the consequences. Not long ago, such an act would have meant certain death.
Meanwhile...
Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa, in his speech at the opening ceremony of the "National Dialogue Conference" with representatives from various sectors in Syria:
"We will not accept the division of Syria. Syria is one united and whole entity.
The state's monopoly as the sole body holding weapons is a must."
Iran
Energy Crisis in an Energy-Rich Country:
In the Iranian provinces marked in orange above (covering most of Iran), schools were closed, and government offices were shut down Feb 25 to reduce electricity consumption due to the ongoing energy crisis.
Gaza
A video recording of the moment the hostage kissed the terrorists.
This video is filling all the Palestinian and Arab channels. The most prominent item [Sunday, Feb 23].
Al Jazeera correspondent Anas al-Sharif publishes the moments when Izz ad-Din al-Qassam's cameraman turns to the kidnapped Omer Shem Tov, before he kisses the heads of Hamas terrorists.
It appears he was instructed to do so.
Above: Avera Mengistu met with his family after more than a decade in Hamas captivity in Gaza.
Above: Operatives of Hamas's military wing are holding signs that allegedly indicate their involvement in the October 7th attack:
The force that infiltrated Nir Oz
The force that infiltrated Urim
The force that infiltrated Nirim
The force that infiltrated the 8200 base
etc.Hamas is showing that Israel has not yet succeeded in eliminating everyone who participated in the October 7th attack.
And:
Hamas brought the kidnapped Eviatar David and Guy Gilboa-Dalal to the delivery point in Nuseirat in a commercial vehicle, so that they could watch their friends being released, while they themselves remain captive in the Strip. A Hamas operative filmed their reactions.
In response:
After a delay of some hours, Israel is not releasing the next prisoners for now
At around 1:30 AM, about an hour after Palestinian media outlets quoted Israeli sources saying that the seventh wave prisoners were expected to be released shortly, Israel announced that the release would be delayed "until the release of the next hostages is guaranteed and without humiliating ceremonies."
Gaza: Hamas Ministry of the Interior
Released an informational video:
A Hamas government camera crew documents Hamas traffic police in downtown Gaza City, in order to strengthen Hamas's image among residents, to convey that things are getting back on track and show that Hamas is in control of the Strip.
Gaza: Ramadan Has Started
Ramadan Sweets in Gaza's Market: "Qatayef"
And though supplies have been halted (due to the end of the ceasefire's Phase 1 and lack of a Phase 2), massive stockpiling occured during the past month:
Above: Iftar meal - mass breaking of the fast, March 3 in the Gaza Strip.
Egypt
Palestinian prisoner Alaa al-Din Bazayan, born in 1958, now in Egypt after being released last night in the latest prisoner exchange round - is released for the third time in his life:
1985: Released in the Jibril Deal
2011: Released in the Shalit Deal
2025: Released in the Current DealHe has consistently returned to terrorism and has always been released.
And, today, March 4:
Today, the Arab "emergency" summit on the Gaza Strip began in Cairo, with the participation of senior officials from 22 Arab countries and the UN Secretary-General.
During the summit, the Egyptian plan for the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip will be presented - which will attempt to be the Arab alternative to the plan presented by Trump for the evacuation of the Strip from its inhabitants.
Of note: Hamas is an incarnation of the Muslim Brotherhood, an organization that all (or nearly all) of these attending governments despise (and suppress).
The summit in Cairo will also be attended by (among others):
The Syrian Foreign Minister (Syria has returned to the fold of the Sunni axis); the President of Lebanon (who traveled to Cairo directly from Saudi Arabia, where he met the Saudi Crown Prince) and the Chairman of the Palestinian Authority, Abu Mazen.Arab Media Outlets Present Key Points of Egypt's Gaza Reconstruction Plan to Be Unveiled Today at the Cairo Summit:
A $53 billion aid package will be provided for the reconstruction of Gaza.
A committee will be established to manage the Strip for six months in preparation for the Palestinian Authority's return to control.
The UN Security Council will consider deploying international peacekeeping forces to Gaza.
The Gaza management committee will consist of independent figures and operate under the auspices of the Palestinian government.
Seven temporary housing zones will be designated within Gaza to accommodate 1.5 million people until reconstruction is completed.
Elsewhere
Berlin, Feb 26
Israel
The above starts this week in Tel Aviv.
Life goes on, the real and the unreal. You go to the movies, and after the previews a clip of famous actors plays, demanding a full ceasefire and hostage release NOW. We've been watching these clips evolve for a year and a half! Walking home just now, at 8:30PM, a full film crew was filming a movie. I stopped to watch. The director yelling Action!, Cut! and all the rest. I watched the camera feed over the director's shoulder [a guy dressed like Robin Hood barges into an apartment and pulls a gun, a bloodied knife is kicked across the floor.] The film will be called: Part of the Coming World ("חלק מהעולם הבא") -- I asked an actor in a big green wig, so this must be right!
Concerts, theatre and the rest rolls along.
But the bottom line is that a bit over 50% of Israeli society consistently elects corrupt leadership for most of the past 25 years.
Below: Temple Mount: Looking for the new moon of the month of Ramadan. (Spoiler: It was seen, Ramadan started.)
United States
As my friend M.R. notes:
In case anyone is wondering where to draw the line between free speech and banning support for a terrorist group that targets Americans...
A Hamas member who held Israelis hostage in Gaza told the captives that the terror group was coordinating with “allies” on college campuses and in the media, according to a lawsuit filed in US court on Friday.
Relief Area
Alef
(A number of senior Hamas leaders were killed at night with their "assistants" somehow in bed with them. This aspect is widely known and unremarked in Middle Eastern societies.)
Bet
Gimmel
Sound on: Someone added the "IDF March" to footage from Nasrallah's funeral, specifically the parts where IDF planes fly over Nasrallah's funeral ceremony.
Dalet
Trump publishes his vision for "Trump's Gaza" on his social media account.
That is how the world works, right?
Hey
Question of Palestinians on social media [Feb 26], regarding the video [above] by Trump about the "future Gaza:"
Why are the dancers on the Gaza beach bearded?
(To respect Muslim perspectives of modesty?)
Vav
Channels affiliated with the Shiite axis mock Syrian leader Al-Julani, following Israeli military movements in southern Syria, which occurred at the end of the first day of the Syrian National Dialogue Conference - which deals, among other things, with Syrian sovereignty.
The above example: Al-Julani helps Netanyahu establish control over Mount Hermon.
Zayin
Chet
(I believe this is non fiction, but don't know how to verify. These are freed Israeli hostages. I include it because it speaks to the consumerist society that Israel [the world?] has become. File under: Not your grandpa's Israel.)
Tet
Yod
Chaf
A viral meme on March 1, following Bibi's remarks regarding aiding the Druze in Jaramana, earlier today.
Lamed
(Generated by AI.)
Mem
The Economist:
(Bibi is tuned in, right?)
I have been encouraged to read about Poland saving itself (PDF here) from the right-wing takeover that spent eight recent years making a wreck of things.
Life feels like theater?
It is good to be in Tel Aviv. Lots of catching up to do. Discovery: My gym has a handstand workshop. I went. "How long has this been offered?" Six months. Half a year? I didn't know!
The U.S. trip was great (since you asked!):
(Not A.I.—it took several tries to get us all in the air at the same time!)
To Peace,
Raf
(Thank you A.K., M.T., M.R.)