First Time Here? Readers suggest starting with the expanded Gaza Explainer in #133 and #120.
Tags: 5 Min Read; Huge, Very Big, Relief Area
New! www.IsRafOK.com now redirects here.
When the Relief area gets big enough, it is time to publish. So here we are.
With the burial of Hersh, the horrors of Israeli domestic politics seem to emerge from the fog of the wars. One of the extremist ministers (on whom Bibi’s power hangs) is in charge of the police. Police violence toward demonstrators is not a new problem, but it has become markedly worse. I expect further decline (rot takes time). The dismantling of the Judicial system proceeds apace.
My attitude (so far) is that domestic politics here can be thought of as a kind of 2nd Trump term in the U.S. (Recall: The playbook of fascism is established. Innovation not required.) The police become politicized to defend the regime and actively suppress opposition (as they did a few days ago in Herzlia). The Judicial system gets taken apart (Tr*mp only got this half way done in one term--well, call it three quarters).
Two months until the U.S. elections.
Two years, Raf thinks, until the next Israeli elections.
And Now: Walkie Talkies…
Exploding pagers are old news… So today there is a new development.
Reports of a Second Wave of Explosions of Communication Devices in Lebanon
A short while ago, numerous reports began to emerge about Hezbollah walkie-talkies (tactical communication devices, PTT) exploding.
The number of casualties from this second wave is still unclear. Lebanese channels are reporting fires that have broken out in many homes in Dahiyeh, Beirut, and in southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah communication devices exploded this evening as well, during the funeral ceremony for those killed in yesterday's explosions.
This is the model of the walkie-talkies that exploded a short while ago, according to Lebanese channels - they are very popular in Lebanon.
Reports indicate that hundreds of walkie talkies exploded. Latest report from Lebanon: 14 dead and 450 injured. Lebanon's Minister of Health: The devices that exploded today were larger— the number of casualties is expected to rise.
From social media:
Concurrently…
The Israeli Ministry of Defense made multiple announcements in the past 24 hours, with photos and videos, of preparations for ground operations in Lebanon. Including showing groups of soldiers maneuvering in rather open areas.
From Abu Ali Express:
Gazan social media users are pleased that Division 98 has left the Gaza Strip for Lebanon. They feel a sense of relief...
One user suggested teaching the Lebanese how to set up a GoFundMe account (popular among Gazans).
Another wonders how Elissa (the famous Lebanese singer) will manage to wash the dishes in southern Lebanon's Muwasi.
Old Fashioned Talkies...
Maher & Winkler
A nine minute conversation between Bill Maher and Henry Winkler (the Fonz). In English.
Podcast RE Polling Data
In #135 and #136 we discussed the manipulation of Dr. Shikaki's polling data by Hamas.
A new poll was conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in Ramallah and the International Program in Conflict Resolution and Mediation at Tel Aviv University. Dr. Shikaki, among others lead the project, which spans Israelis, Palestinians and Gazans. It shows shifts in attitudes toward peace. Two journalists discuss the poll data. 20 minutes long, I suggest giving at least it 10-15 minutes to get the interesting stuff.
Postmark
Lebanon
Hezbollah rockets being attacked by the IDF. Hezbollah rockets are like Hamas tunnels: No matter how many of them are blown up, there are still lots more. Shows the enormous investments made by Iran to arm its proxies.
West Bank -- Social Media
Fatah-affiliated channels explain how we got to where we are in the Gaza Strip.
It starts at the top with the abduction of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit who was held prisoner by Palestinian militants for 5 years.
The next frame is Sinwaar, who was among the 1,000+ Palestinian prisoners released in exchange for Shalit's freedom.
The last frame is... a destroyed section of Gaza today.
Gaza -- Social Media
An Israeli video that received wide exposure yesterday among Gazans: Against the background of the lack of cigarettes in the Gaza Strip: Tobacco smuggling into the Gaza Strip inside fake eggshells.
Peace through nicotine… a tragically missed opportunity.
Northern Syria
Idlib: The Syrian rebels in the north of the country celebrate the blow to thousands of Hezbollah operatives by distributing sweets.
Additional social media footage of this celebration in Syria:
Syria -- Social Media
The famous Syrian Druze journalist, Faysal al Kasim (with millions of followers on social media and a show on al Jazeera), writes (after operation “pagers” and before operation “walkie talkies”) about the hit that Hezbollah took when thousands of pagers exploded:
"What happened today to Hezbollah can be classified as the biggest pre-emptive strike in modern history. It can be compared to Israel's pre-emptive strike on the Egyptian Air Force before the Six Day War.”
”Today, Hezbollah has thousands of paraplegics from among the elite and active members. If Hezbollah enters the war now, its wounded will not find even one free bed in the hospitals in Lebanon because the hospitals are now bursting with wounded. Even worse - Hezbollah lost its means of military communication.”
”Checkmate."
Iran
It was just the second anniversary of the death of Mahsa Amini, the young woman who was beaten to death by Iran’s morality police for not wearing her hijab “properly.”
Thousands of stores did not open in a kind of general strike.
And this:
Iranian Opposition Social Media
In the Iranian attack on Israel in April, the following were launched:
170 UAVs
130 ballistic missiles
30 cruise missilesThe result was: Zero fatalities in Israel (a Beduin girl was seriously injured by falling shrapnel)
Yesterday, in the "Pagers" operation:
0 UAVs
0 missiles and rockets
0 cruise missilesThe result: 11 dead, over 3000 injured, hundreds of them seriously.
(The above was published before the Walkie Talkie operation…)
Gaza: The 8119th Reserve Battalion
6 Min, in English
Relief Area
Alef
Bet: Being against radical Islam and authoritarianism be like...
Gimmel
Dalet: On Abbas, Chairman of the Palestinian Authority (for many years already)
Hey
Bahraini social media user: The Houthi missile launched today, which disintegrated mid-air without causing a single casualty in Israel, has proven far more effective in its mission than Iran’s or Hezbollah's revenge missiles.
He explains: The Iranians fired 300 missiles without causing any casualties in Israel, and Hezbollah fired 500 missiles (and rockets) with the same result.
He wonders: How is it that the missiles of the Iranian axis fail to hit the densely populated cities of the Zionist entity, but manage extraordinary success in striking chicken coops and hatchlings?
[It is fun to laugh at this. Also worth remembering: It is an accident of history that Iran's rockets are the quality they are. Time will correct this (e.g. the rockets will be better in a couple years). The only solution is peace.]
Vav
A Gazan mocks Hezbollah and writes:
Hezbollah attacked the chicken coops in Israel about a month ago.
Israel responded and attacked the balls of Hezbollah operatives...
(With exploding pagers.)
Zayin: Nasrallah, Head of Hezbollah, after the pager attack:
No need to panic!
Chet: Trending...
(This is the style of announcement Hezbollah uses when one of its members is killed in combat... as have 454+ so far this war.)
Tet: Hezbollah's updated logo...
Yod — Reportedly there are many posts of this nature…
By enemies of the Syrian and Lebanese Shia regimes…
The joy of Syrian Hezbollah opponents: "Pager explosion day" is now a holiday, Hezbollah operatives have become "useless" (to their partners)
A Syrian refugee who suffered under Hezbollah in the Syrian civil war declares September 17 a national holiday for free Syrians, marking the events affecting Hezbollah. He says:
"Today, I’m celebrating. All the social media videos are of women because all the Hezbollah men are in hospitals... Some are injured here (pointing), some in the face, and some had limbs severed. It’s said 90% of Hezbollah operatives are now ‘useless’ (to their partners)... Most put pagers in their pockets, so imagine what happened. (Note the pictures of sausages that were added to the video)."
Chof
Lamed
Mem
Just admit you hate the jews like the rest of your friends.
Nun: Paging Hezbollah…
(Reference to The Matrix)
I learned something fun recently. America, unlike Israel, allows absentee voting. Expats can vote. While one needs to register to vote from abroad every year, I can vote electronically. By email.
Works with and without testicles.
Kind of cool.
To Peace,
Raf
(Thank you A.K.)