Is Raf OK? -- Installment #161
2025-01-20 -- Tel Aviv
First Time Here? Readers suggest starting with the expanded Gaza Explainer in #133 and #120.
Tags: Music Video In Depth; Huge Relief; Big Picture; 10 Min Read
Periodical mention: Your questions, comments and complaints drive a fair amount of the content here. Write first, ask questions later! (You can respond to these emails or find me directly.)
Israeli musicians Yoni Bloch and Barak Feldman released this three minute music video. Let's start with music!
(I added English subtitles and context explanations... it may take a few views or pauses to get it all.)
Notice anything, er, missing from this video?
The hard work of progress.
But you know, vision is a good thing. Without a destination, do you have a chance of getting there?
In the language of the 7 Habits: Begin with the End In Mind.
I first saw this clip in a right-leaning channel. I thought: What else is new. No mention of Arabs or Palestinians. Completely Jewish-Israeli-centric. Classic Israeli-centric slant.
But after working out the imagery in the video, I feel there is more going on. The message might be, "The energy wasted on internal fights could be used productively." It could be "Focus on what matters for everyone, not personal (or ideological) agendas like how the supreme court works."
Or peace.
More context is included in this add-on page.
(To think, I had doubts in spite of it being by one of my favorite Israeli artists! My favorite Yoni Bloch album... Maybe It's Me, which has one track sung by his kid.)
The Real News is Human
The IDF released a clip of the three released hostages being reunited with their mothers. (The protocol established is that only the mother is allowed to be present, initially.)
Mail
What’s the mood out your way with the ceasefire? Hopeful?
No. It is calmer, as many soldiers are out of combat and reservists released.
But hopeful? With Bibi and his fanatic ministers in power?
I am going to let a friend, A.P., “in discussion” with General Petraeus respond to this. (This is a friend writing in response to General Petraeus’s recent interview in the podcast Unholy: Two Jews on the News):
A fascinating conversation (starting at 18:45) with General Petraeus in which he explains in detail why, in his opinion, Israel has defeated its opponents in the north in the current campaign, and failed strategically in the south.
Through Petraeus' (relatively objective) perspective, Israelis are asked: What is the reason for the strategic failure in the south?
The answer, according to Petraeus, is not the IDF, which brought impressive tactical achievements, nor the hostage deal, which was signed very late.
Petraeus specifies - as mentioned, professionally and based on the experience he gained in regime change in Iraq - that in order to defeat Hamas as a political entity, the State of Israel should have, from the outset, attached to the tactical fighting, forces that would operate within the Gazan civilian sphere. Forces whose sole purpose is to enable the return of Gaza residents to their homes and the introduction of a coalition of external parties that would take full responsibility for the area that was cleansed.
In other words, not the denial of humanitarian aid and not the expulsion of the residents, but rather, the end state of the cleansing and isolation of the entire Gazan space should have been - the return of the non-combatant residents and the creation of a safe civilian space for them with an alternative government that provides for their civilian needs.
Does anyone imagine the current government promoting such a strategic agenda? [We know the Israeli government is incapable of such an agenda because it would mean collaborating with the Palestinian Authority for the benefit of Gaza. —Raf]
The great miss in Gaza - and the price Israel will pay in the future for not defeating Hamas - is not despite the government's extreme insistence on continuing for "total victory" indefinitely, but precisely because of those who demanded "total victory" but thwarted in every possible way Israel's ability to establish an alternative regime in Gaza that would be acceptable to its residents.
Those who for years saw Hamas as an "asset" that needed to be financed [read: Bibi —Raf] were unable to create an alternative government for Gaza - and for that alone a state commission of inquiry should be established. Not only about what led to 7.10 but about the historical folly of the government since then, in that its ideological insistence denied the IDF and Israel the chance to win and achieve the goals of the war.
If only the Israeli government had approached the task of regime change in Gaza with the same enthusiasm with which it is trying to change the regime in Israel.
Dept of The Invisible
Items invisible in the Western media. (Now combined with the Postmark concept, to help consolidate topics by locale.)
On Empire...
The results of war are unpredictable. Before and during WWII no one envisioned Europe (and the world) being carved for decades to come into Soviet and Western spheres, the end of the British empire, and much more. The end of the cold war likewise birthed a European configuration that no one (and I mean no one) foresaw. (The Bush Jr. administration actively disliked the impending fragmentation, c.f the Chicken Kiev speech.)
WWI likewise started from unlikely (at the time) tinder and then, not by intention, terminated a number of empires (Austro-Hungarian, Ottoman, beginning of the end of the British).
In recent years, I am pretty sure American NeoCons didn't plan to double the Iranian empire when they launched the invasion of Iraq in 2003, but they did (adding Iraq and Afghanistan to the Iranian sphere of influence). [And to be clear: I am perfectly sure this outcome was the last thing they wanted... but they got it! Yeah them!]
Today's Middle East War (does it have a name? "The Simhat Torah Conflict," "First Iranian Axis War," "2024 Middle East Conflict," "Tunnels, Pagers & Beards, Season 3." Have an idea? Email me! [respond to this email or contact me directly]) wasn't aimed at Syria or "mainstream" Lebanon. We now have a president in Lebanon (for the first time in three years) and Syria has turned over completely.
Where Lebanon has, arguably, taken a relatively secular step, leadership wise, Syria is governed by religiously-motivated rebels. [Lebanon's new president is the chief of the Lebanese Army... the Lebanese constitution forbids serving military officers from running for office... his election violates the Lebanese constitution.]
Israel is also increasingly under the control of the religiously motivated. Both domestic (far right-wing ministers who are militant in their outlook--unlike religious ministers of the past who often prioritized peace) and imported (the influence of Evangelicals--the next U.S. Secretary of State has been described as an "Evangelical Catholic" and the next U.S. Ambassador to Israel is an Evangelical minister).
On balance, religiously motivated government is rising sharply.
So, back to empire, the current war has lead to both an increase in both U.S. and Turkish influence:
Syrian sources report that Abu Muhammad al-Julani, Ahmad al-Shara'a, the head of the new Syrian government, is expected to leave Syrian territory in the coming days, for the first time since the fall of the Assad regime, to visit "the Sultan" - his boss, Turkish President Erdogan, in Turkey.
[It is thought that a number of Syrian Rebel victories were powered by Turkish-supplied intelligence.]
A-Shara'a is meticulous about respecting his boss - making a pilgrimage to him as his first mission outside the country's borders.
It appears that only later will Erdogan make a return visit to Syria to take a closer look at the quality of his "new real estate."
Below: Syrian sources report that Turkish army convoys entered the northern Latakia region in western Syria, accompanied by a Turkmen crowd that came from Turkish territory (possibly to settle the area with Turks, it isn’t clear to Raf yet).
According to some sources, the Turkish convoys have reached a depth of 20 km inside Syrian territory. The convoys carry Turkish flags and their participants sing nationalist Turkish songs ("I will die for my Turkey").
The other side of the coin (this is the Middle East... the coins all have two or more sides...) is that Saudi Arabia seems to be playing a big role in Lebanon. By reports, the new Lebanese leadership was selected with a Saudi hand in the mix.
From the First Speech of Lebanon's New President
I pledge to ensure that the army will be the only body that will bear arms in Lebanon.
I pledge not to grant citizenship to Palestinians in Lebanon during my term in office so as not to harm their right of return.
I pledge that during my term of office, the state will work to fight terrorism and prevent Israeli aggression on Lebanese lands.
We have an opportunity for serious dialogue with Syria to solve common problems.
On That Pesky Internet-Fraud Thingy...
This has been going on since the very beginning of the war. Whole clans in the West Bank have netted hundreds of thousands (in US$) impersonating Gazans.
Scam of the day:
Digital begging… by crooks.
Meet Nehal, she claims to live in Rafah and is raising money to escape from Gaza.
She says that to leave through the Rafah crossing into Egypt you have to pay $5,000-7,000 per person, so please donate!
She doesn't reveal that the Rafah crossing has been closed for almost six months...She already has 63,000 euros in the donation link.
Not bad. And where she actually is... could be anywhere. (Because on the internet, nobody knows you're a dog.)
But really. The Egyptian blockade of Gaza, 6 months old now, deserves attention by those protesting for Gaza, right?
West Bank
P.A. Announcement
The multi-week gunbattle between P.A. forces and West Bank Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) lead to this press conference by the P.A.
PA security forces summarize the achievements of their activities in the Jenin RC so far at a press conference:
247 detainees.
245 explosive devices neutralized.
17 car bombs neutralized.
8 detainees related to terrorist financing and the seizure of terrorist financing routes from abroad.
Large quantities of weapons confiscated.
After this two-month gunbattle, in the past few days reports are that Palestinian factions in the West Bank have agreed to end their armed conflict.
Yemen
U.S. and U.K. fighter jets carried out airstrikes in Yemen.
There have been a few days of that over the past week+. Perhaps that is why there was only one red alerts related to Yemen over the past two weeks?
IDF: Dozens of Missiles and Over 100 UAVs Fired by the Houthis From Yemen Have Been Intercepted by the IAF Since the Start of the War
Since the beginning of the war, the IDF has been defending the State of Israel from attacks and threats on multiple fronts.
In recent months, the Houthi terrorist regime in Yemen has conducted scores of aerial attacks against the State of Israel, including with surface-to-surface missiles and UAVs. The Houthi regime serves as a key proxy of the Iranian axis in the Middle East that is responsible for destabilizing the region and disrupting global shipping routes.
Since the start of the war, the Houthis have launched approximately 40 surface-to-surface missiles from Yemen toward Israel. The IDF Aerial Defense Array intercepted most of the missiles that approached Israeli territory. So far, one fallen projectile has been identified, along with two partial interceptions that led to fragments falling in the area. The rest of the launches failed en route.
Additionally, the Houthi terrorist regime has launched approximately 320 UAVs toward Israel, over 100 of which were intercepted by the Israeli Air Force. To date, two effective hits have been identified.
The remaining UAVs either fell in open areas, failed to reach Israeli territory, or caused no significant damage.
Houthi rockets have been successfully intercepted in recent weeks, though falling debris has damaged some property. The alerts send millions of people to shelters, including in Jerusalem and the West Bank.
Above: Remains of a Houthi missile landed on a house in the Jerusalem area.
Relief Area
Alef: Dating Chat...
(As seen on social media)
Bet: From a Dating Chat
(As seen on social media)
("Smollanim" this is a Bibi smear of "Leftists")
Gimmel: About That "Next Generation" Transit Plan for Tel Aviv
What will be first a) Mass Transit in Israel b) Fusion Power Generation ? 15 years you say?
(A comment on how long public works projects take in Israel. Large light rail systems are being built in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem--additions to the existing lines. When I observed that in one Jerusalem area there were finally tracks laid, my local friend said, "That's meaningless. They will remove the tracks and replace them at least three more times before they stay for good." I had to tell him that this happens elsewhere, even in Seattle.)
Dalet
Wonders of modern medicine...
For those who do not have a heart, we add a pacemaker. For those who don't have balls, we remove a prostate.
(Referring to Bibi who just had his prostate removed.)
Hey
Palestinians make fun of American distress related to the fires in California.
Above: Popular cartoon on Palestinian channels Jan 9 & 10.
The cartoon, prepared by a Palestinian Hamas supporter, points to the connection between Trump's threat to "open the gates of hell in the Middle East" if the hostages from Gaza are not released and the raging fires in California.\Reportedly, this narrative is gaining momentum among Palestinian channels and those affiliated with the "resistance axis."
Vav: Fafo Returns… In Uniform..
(Referring to the TikTok/Instagram/Twitter star who played every role (injured person, concerned journalist, civil defense worker). He flooded social media with viral bits of Palestinian victimhood. Appeared here in #65, #146 and others.)
Zayin
Chet
(Referring to Yemeni Houthi rockets in the middle of the night triggering air raid sirens in Israel at 4 AM.)
Tet - Video by Eretz Nehederet
Yod
Chaf: Dr. Sinwar Has Your Test Results....
Lamed
(This can be seen all over Tel Aviv...)
Mem: Riddle Time!
Maps and naming seem to be topics of the day… I was hooked by this in Gallery Har-El, Printers and Publishers a few days ago. By artist Daniel Richter, as seen in his work: When the Hit Shits the Fan.
My youngest kid was just here for almost 3 weeks. Her boyfriend, who had never been to Israel, joined for the last week.
As part of that, I hired a guide to take us through the old city and Masada. We did one day in Jerusalem and one day doing Masada and the Dead Sea.
a) It was super great
b) The lack of tourists makes the old city and Masada really amazing. There are very few other people, so you can spend time, and really see things that are usually crowded.
Recommended!
The flip side… tourists are probably on their way back… Wizz Air and BlueBird (discount airlines) are flying again to Israel and the Lufthansa Group plans to restart on Feb 1. EasyJet plans to restart 38 weekly routes from Israel by June 1. U.S. based carriers are mumbling about restarting in time for Pesach.
To Peace,
Raf
(Thank you A.K., M.T.)