First Time Here? Readers suggest starting with the expanded Gaza Explainer in #133 and #120.
It's raining... outside cities that means... mud.
Tags: 12 Min Read; Happiness! Syria! Relief! Music!
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ICC Arrest Warrants for Netanyahu & Gallant
What is happening with the decision of the ICC? What don't I understand?
We are all hurt by the death of innocent citizens, especially innocent children. But who killed and raped innocent people last year? Is terrorism rewarded?
What am I missing from the big picture? Is anyone trying to counterbalance the blame? Or, maybe, is this decision some kind of pressure to reach an agreement ???
I am surprised. And I worry more than before...
There is every reason to be worried. The ICC, like the U.N., has been weaponized against Israel (and by proxy Jews). This is not be surprising (look at the membership of the ICC and UN).
In this case, Hamas (and by extension Iran) carries much blame for Gaza’s food crisis—as much as anyone. (The ICC also issued a warrant for Hamas leader Mohammad Deif, though he is understood to have been killed in a strike over the summer—but what about the rest of Hamas’ leadership?). Hamas' brutal use of Gazan civilians as human shields should be prosecuted with full vigor.
But it probably won't be.
Some background.
Recall #117
Back in May, 2024, I presented a positive view of the ICC warrant. It is worth a reread.
The Opportunity
This is, when you get down to it, Israel's opportunity to tell its story without interruption. I often quote Bill Clinton: Back in, I believe, 1992, candidate Clinton was asked: “How do you handle all these attacks on you and your policy proposals?” Then-candidate Clinton replied: “We see it as an opportunity to state our case.”
Raf says: The Israeli Right loves to pound its chest and proclaim the righteousness of their cause and methods. Here you go! Go to the ICC and sell them the case. This is as clean and clear a forum as will exist. Israel should welcome the opportunity.
If Israel chooses to dicker with the process (Bibi's approach to his legal troubles within Israel), that is failure. “Be Bill [Clinton]” — welcome the opportunity.
Israel's Choices...
A key issue is that this opportunity may be missed because of Israel's choice of leadership. I ask myself: What jurist of integrity would defend Bibi at the ICC?
Not a small question. There are great jurists, who could use this opportunity to state Israel’s case to the world. But would such people go to work for a suspected felon like Bibi?
And the “worst” case: There is a conviction (for a number of reasons, early indicators are that conviction is unlikely), what is the big deal? Some senior people spend some years in prison and conflict planning for the future will make a bigger investment in supporting civilians?
Doesn’t faze me.
806 Israeli soldiers, 908 civilians and 76 police and Shaback officers have been killed in the past year. (And counting.) If some (two? eight?) senior people are sent to prison, even for long stints, that does not strike me as material, in the overall casualty count. (It is harder to put senior Hamas people in prison because they are no longer living. Culpables can certainly be found.)
Dept of The Invisible
Items invisible in the Western media.
Hezbollah is shooting at UNIFIL
On November 18 and 19, Hezbollah fired rockets at UNIFIL bases in Lebanon, injuring a number of UNIFIL soldiers. UNIFIL announced the first instance:
UNIFIL officially reports that 4 Guinean soldiers were injured this morning at the UNP-5-42 outpost in the east of the village of Ramiyeh. According to UNIFIL, the rocket was fired at them by "a non-governmental entity inside Lebanon". 3 of the soldiers were evacuated to a hospital.
And say: We get it. UNIFIL is so afraid of Hezbollah they cannot even say the name "Hezbollah" in their publicity. Observers already knew this, as the IDF found instance after instance of Hezbollah tunnels and arms caches right next to UNIFIL bases, under the noses of UNIFIL watchtowers. Whatever the mechanism (bribery, infiltration, intimidation), Hezbollah neutralized UNIFIL long ago.
Which is why UNIFIL failed to prevent this war. (As UNRWA failed in Gaza to promote peace or screen combatants from their payroll.)
33-Year-Old Son of Hasidic Rebbe Joins IDF Combat Forces: A Bold Step
On the topic of drafting the ultra-religious... humanity is not monochrome. Even when it wears black and white.
6 min, Hebrew w/English subs
In spite of it all: The World Happiness Report
For people under 30 years old, Israel is #2:
Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib Interview
A voice from Gaza: 100 minutes long, in English.
Who lost 31 family members to Israeli airstrikes.
The commercials are annoying. I skip them. Mr. Alkhatib's writings have appeared in The Atlantic, Newsweek, The Wall Street Journal and elsewhere.
This is one of the clearest conversations I have seen. Among other things, Mr. Alkhatib discusses the hollow falsehood of naming organizations like Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis "resistance movements." Mr. Alkhatib points out that resistance movements, by definition, are armed movements to protect an oppressed people. To push oppressors away from those being oppressed. The "Three H's" (to coin a term, Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis) wear civilian clothing, hide their weapons among civilians, attack from among civilians, build protective infrastructure their civilians are not allowed to use and trigger wars from which they are unable to shield their civilians. In Gaza, Hamas consistently and deliberately use civilians as a kind of ammunition.
In other words, every single objective of a resistance movement is violated by design by the Three H's. Mr. Alkhatib says the Western Intellectual Left has committed a grave error in giving its blessing to movements that seek and accept the death and destruction of the very people they should be protecting.
Postmark
Military Cemetary
Gen. (Ret.) Asaf Agmon delivers a heart-wrenching eulogy for his grandson, Gur Kehati. Hebrew w/English subs.
Beit Hanoun (in the north of the Gaza Strip)
An Israeli drone drops announcements over a school.
Lebanon: Part A
1 min, Arabic w/English subs
IDF spokesman in Arabic in a fine accent from the village of al Adissa in southern Lebanon:
I am Avichai Adraee, standing here deep in the Lebanese lands. Where are the reporters Ali Shoeib, Hossein Mortada, Ali Mortada? Where are you? الميدان بدو رجال Those who are in the field are the men!
Lebanon: Part B, Nov 22
UNIFIL: Four of the soldiers of the Italian force were injured today by the impact of two 120 mm rockets that were fired at a point of the international military police in Chamaa.
According to UNIFIL, the rockets were apparently launched by Hezbollah operatives or the organizations subordinate to Hezbollah.
At least UNIFIL mentions Hezbollah, though with a caveat.
In this region, that counts as progress.
Lebanon: Part C: Mainstream TV
1 Min, Arabic w/English subs
Serge Dagher, Secretary-General of the Lebanese Christian Kataeb Party:
Israel is not attacking Lebanon. Entire areas of Lebanon are not being attacked. The war is between Israel and Hezbollah.
And this... 1 min, Arabic w/English subs
Camille Dory Chamoun, Maronite Christian, head of the National Liberal Party (and grandson of Camille Nimr Chamoun, who was President of Lebanon in the 1950s):
In light of the failure to enforce UN Resolution 1701 in the past, I understand the caution on the Israel side.
Nov 28 IDF Spokesperson in Arabic to Residents of Southern Lebanon
The IDF spokesman in Arabic this morning informs the residents of South Lebanon that they are prohibited from entering the villages located in the strip highlighted in red on the attached map, which is between 2 and 6 km deep (depending on location).
The IDF in Beirut... By Numbers
Lebanese TV
Avichay Adraee, the IDF spokesperson in Arabic, participated last Thursday in a video call on the channel of a Lebanese woman (who opposes Hezbollah), which also featured Syrian guests.
Adraee has become a respected (and even popular) figure among many Arab citizens, especially since the intensified phase of the war against Hezbollah over the past couple of months. He serves as a point of contact for their communication with and admiration for Israel.
There has been a noticeable increase in positive responses to Adraee's social media posts from the Arab population. Previously, such posts mostly attracted hostile comments, with positive responses being extremely rare. Now, positive comments are much more common.
Bread Lines in Gaza
Hamas continues to be the gang that controls bread distribution. There is plenty of flour and bread, but the gangs control access...
The subsidized price at the bakery (because the flour is free): 3 NIS (about US$0.80) per dozen pitas.
The price for those who can't reach the bakery's entrance [because the Hamas gangs keep them out]: 40 NIS (appx US$11.00) per dozen.
Hamas & Hezbollah: Why Not Surrender?
Why doesn’t Hamas surrender? At this point, what are they fighting for?
Here is an interesting angle from a prominent Lebanese man who is active on social media (and lives in the United Arab Emirates) on this issue:
Why do ideological fundamentalist organizations never admit defeat, even in the face of obvious losses?
Here are the reasons:
Absolute belief in their doctrine: These groups believe they hold the absolute truth, and see themselves in a holy or historical battle. Admitting defeat means that their core beliefs may be wrong.
Maintaining morale and support: Admitting defeat can undermine team members' morale and weaken their support base. They often present failures as "temporary challenges" or "tests" to keep supporters united and motivated.
Propaganda tactics: Many of these organizations rely on powerful propaganda and on reframing losses as part of a long-term struggle. This helps maintain popular support and keeps the supporters believing in the end goal.
Belief in historical continuity: They often see their struggle as part of a larger, long-term goal, believing that victory is inevitable, even if there are temporary setbacks along the way.
Fear of internal collapse: Admitting defeat can lead to internal conflicts and loss of trust in leadership, which can cause divisions or rebellion within the group. That's why they prefer denial - to preserve internal cohesion.
In short, the refusal to admit defeat is a strategic choice for ensuring the survival of the organization and maintaining their purpose, even in difficult times.
From 2021:
"The victory in the battle in the eyes of the Arab" according to Hussein al Wadeei:
As part of my wanderings yesterday in the Yemeni area of the internet, I came across interesting words written by Hussein al Wadeei, a prominent Yemeni writer and thinker, following the last round of fighting in Gaza, at the end of which Hamas declared its "divine victory".
This is what he wrote hours after the Gaza ceasefire of some years ago:
"The Arab wins his wars even before they end and sometimes even before they begin. The Arab makes a dichotomy between the idea or principle of victory and practical, on the battlefield, victory.
He does not need a practical victory in the campaign to declare his victory. All that is needed is just a war, even one that returned its citizens to the stone age.. and that's it.The Arab makes it easier on himself with the criteria for victory as the campaign continues.
At the beginning of the campaign the criterion is "defeat of the enemy", then it eases itself and the criterion becomes "war against the enemy", then the criterion for victory is reduced to "standing firm against the blows of the enemy" and in the end victory becomes a synonym for defeat and destruction, but with a lot of pride."
Western Aleppo, Syria
Did you know that Syrian rebels (anti-Assad-regime and anti-Hezbollah) have made serious progress in the last week?
Green: area under rebel control (dark green - new occupation).
Red: territory under the control of Assad and his allies.
Yellow: territory under the control of the Kurds
White: TurkeyForces are on the one side:
Syrian army, Russia, Hezbollah, pro-Iranian Shiite militias.On the other side:
The Syrian rebels, mostly a collection of Sunni - Salafi - Jihadists and ex-ISIS/Al Quada, receive aid from Turkey and Ukraine and "enjoy slaughtering Shiites" and the soldiers of the Syrian army who murdered them en masse during the Syrian civil war.They appear to have cut off the Damascus-Aleppo road.
Capturing a Syrian ammunition dump:
Killing a senior Iranian General:
Sources associated with the Assad regime confirm that the senior Iranian adviser, Kyomarth Pourhashemi with the rank of Amid (equivalent to a general) was killed in the battles against the rebels in western Aleppo.
Iranian media: The Iranian officer killed in the battles in Aleppo is the commander of all of Iran's military advisers in Syria.
And:
Sources affiliated with the Syrian opposition report that rebels carried out a surprise raid - likely based on exceptionally high-quality intelligence, possibly Turkish - on a meeting led by the Iranian officer Pourhashemi. Pourhashemi was killed alongside other military officials present at the meeting.
And, as of November 29:
The Syrian Front: Rebels Seize Key Villages, Gear Up for Aleppo Battle
Syrian rebels announced they gained full control over the area west of Aleppo within 36 hours, including strategic points like Khan Tuman (overlooking Aleppo and the M5 highway) and al-Mansoura (the last town before Aleppo, see attached map).
Captured spoils include tanks, anti-tank missiles, rockets, and numerous prisoners, including Hezbollah operatives.
Turkey has opened its border to Idlib, allowing the rebels it supports to move freely toward Aleppo - equipped with advanced Turkish military gear. The "Sultan Murad Division," backed by Turkish intelligence, has joined the fight, with Turkish heavy vehicles (equipped with structures aimed meant to protect against drones.)
Meanwhile, Assad's army is sending reinforcements, evacuating civilians, and gaining support from Shiite militias in Iraq.
Abu Ali Express writes: Two major camps prepare for a decisive clash. Popcorn, anyone?
Further:
Aleppo Front: Rebels announced they have taken control of Assad's military scientific research center in Aleppo, located less than 1 km from the city's outskirts and 2.8 km from the city's ring road.
Reports also indicate the rebels seized the town of al-Eis, just south of Khan Tuman - another key strategic point.
This operation appears to be the result of meticulous preparation, likely months in the making, showcasing the rebels' strategic planning.
Social media footage from November 29 indicates that rebels are taking Aleppo. It appears Assad's army has pulled back or gone AWOL.
Here we are, cheering Muslim extremists because they are taking on the Syria-Hezbollah axis....
Relief Area
Alef
A traditional Bedouin camel race in Israel.
Bet: Music!
Israeli group A-WA. Listen to 2 min or 12. Arabic w/English subs.
Gimmel: Lebanese Social Media
A Lebanese woman writes:
"They're on a foot and a half, ya Sayyid"
And the reference is to a special terminology coined by Hassan Nasrallah (the Sayyid) in one of his speeches a few years ago which he used to mock the IDF soldiers who stand "on a foot and a half" - that is, they are in a state of constant alertness and pressure from Hezbollah's response.
Now the phrase is used to mock Nasrallah, against the background of a picture of IDF soldiers, relaxed, on a balcony in Lebanese territory (allegedly).
[Recall: Nasrallah—the Sayyid—spent 15 years mocking the IDF as cowards shaking in fear at the sight of Hezbollah.]
Dalet: Lebanese Social Media
The Lebanese journalist Maria Maalouf (who, a few years ago, fled to the USA from Lebanon after calling on Israel to eliminate Nasrallah — Hezbollah would have killed her had she stayed in Lebanon) publishes the attached cartoon about what Israel is doing in Lebanon now. (Removing the cancer of Hezbollah.)
Hey
Vav
The Ceasefire with Hezbollah in 2006…
Chet
By Syrian Druze journalist Faisal al Kasim:
The Hezbollah slogan: We are on the road to Jerusalem.
Instead, they will stay north of the Litani river (e.g. away from the border with Israel).
Tet
Hezbollah's opponents on social networks "fixed" Hezbollah's logo...
(Changing the rifle to a white flag.)
Yod: Eretz Nehederet … and UNIFIL
UNIFIL, the international force that was supposed to keep southern Lebanon demilitarized under UN Resolution 1701:
Chof
It’s cold in New York. The Middle East feels so far away, but the real battle is clear: Hamas isn’t fighting for victory on the ground in Gaza or Israel. It is fighting for victory on college campuses and in left-leaning Western politics.
People are dying. Hostages are still rotting in tunnels. “Pro Palestine” posts and protests in the West are Hamas’ goals. It’s a battle of hearts and minds, not bullets.
To Peace,
Raf
(Thank you A.K., M.T., M.P.)