Revision: The section “Characterization” below was revised on May 8, 2024. Thank you M.T.
Tags: 5 Min Read; One video
If You Read One Thing: 50 Completely True Things
Another by Mo Husseini. His piece referenced in #108 came to me in a newsletter by Rabbi Rachel Nussbaum. 50 Completely True Things surfaced on Reddit (PDF here).
A few of my faves:
FACT No. 21.
Where you are born does not actually determine anything about you.FACT No. 22.
Your passport is not your political beliefs.FACT No. 23.
Your government is not your morality.
And:
FACT No. 37.
No one in the Levant is indigenous. Every fucking empire in history has fucked their way through the Levant. There is no pure indigeneity. And let’s be honest: the entire planet has been colonized by hominids from the Great Rift Valley.
A friend (B.P.) told me of a talk she saw. The presenter showed that the history of humanity is a history of movement and migration. Static periods happen, but I wouldn't know: My birthplace is 1,000+ kilometers from the birthplaces of both my parents and all my children (four locations in all, each 1,000+ km from all the others). My mother was born in a country different than her mother. At least two of my grandparents were born in countries different than their own parents and siblings.
The "anti colonial" position is abused in a sad way: If I am Algerian in 1960, I may want to throw off the French Police State that controls me. That can be described as anti-colonial. The rest of us are simply pawns in the movement of people, sometimes wearing the hat of "colonizer" (if I am white and live on the North American West Coast in 2024, for example) and sometimes wearing a hat of "colonized" (if I am Native American living on the North American West Coast in 2024, for example). None of us planned this. We are all, every one of us, the product of what Warren Buffet called the "Ovarian Lottery."
Gaza Aid Data: Found!
I’ve been looking for this, and finally found it.
The May 5 update (aka COGAT) includes:
During the month of April, there was a surge in the amount of humanitarian aid going into Gaza, with ongoing international efforts to develop new aid routes into Gaza.
223 trucks were distributed within Gaza by UN aid agencies, 134 of them containing food aid, (May.4)
Airdrops: 94 pallets containing tens of thousands of packages of food aid were airdropped, in coordination with partner countries over northern Gaza yesterday (May. 4).
Aid to northern Gaza: 63 aid trucks were coordinated to northern Gaza (50 from the private sector, 12 WFP and 2 containing fuel) (May.4).
4 tankers of cooking gas and 4 tankers of fuel designated for the operation of essential infrastructure in Gaza, entered Gaza (May.4).
Coordinations (May.4): Out of 27 general coordination requests 26 (96%) were approved. 11 UN requests for coordinations were submitted with 10 (91%) being approved and 10 coordinations to northern Gaza were requested with 9 (90%) approved. Since 1/1/24, 88% of all coordination requests were approved.
26 bakeries are currently operational in Gaza, providing close to 5 million breads, rolls, and pita breads daily.
So far, 3,204 injured and sick individuals and 725 escorts have been evacuated from the strip [Raf believes: via Israeli routes, this does not include departures via Egypt].
The northern water pipeline from Israel is now fully operational, providing an average of 50 liters per person a day.
What Does Raf Think about the Gaza War?
I agree with Thomas Friedman’s essay a month ago (PDF here): Cease-Fire, Get Hostages, Leave Gaza, Rethink Everything.
A military operation in Rafah, which has already started, has these issues:
Objective Problems (Will occur)
Catastrophe for Gazan civilians
Exacerbate existing problems of food distribution and medical services
Death of some or all Israeli hostages
Death of some number of Israeli soldiers (3 killed yesterday)
Consensus Problems (Politicians and analysts agree these will occur)
Increased political isolation with Israel (already occurring—weapons deliveries have been paused)
Rupture with U.S. administration
Reduced latitude for Arab leadership to be in official relationship with Israel
Hamas, as a non-governmental entity, is not eliminated by killing its leaders or members
One way Raf puts it, arriving at Mr. Friedman’s conclusion differently: There are five wars right now (Lebanon, Iran, West Bank, Red Sea, Gaza). Let's take two:
Israel-Iran (the direct conflict): Israel landed a heavy blow, killing a whole chunk of Iranian military leadership in the April 1 bombing of a building adjacent to the Iranian embassy in Damascus. While there was a heavy Iranian response (and a reported subsequent Israeli response to the response), Israel has been on its forward foot the whole time, initiative in its hands, and Iran on its back foot, responding.
Compare this to the conflict with Hamas in Gaza: At every step, Hamas has been on its front foot and Israel has been responding. Hamas is, for all intents and purposes, in control and has been since October 6. Hamas also does something that Israel cannot (would not, and should not): Hamas uses the population of Gaza as an army uses ammunition: It expends them and receives strategic benefit for that expense. When Israel killed staff of the World Food Kitchen, Hamas "won." This isn't a chess game under a game clock. Israel can pull out of Gaza, target Hamas leaders over time, and work on a new approach.
This is where Mr. Friedman's assessment of Israeli leadership hits home: On the one hand, getting out of a "back foot situation" is a good thing. On the other, the White House and Saudi Arabia would like to bring Israel into a new, "next level" relationship. This is a historically unique opportunity for Israel to bring partners from Gulf countries to help resolve the predicaments of Gaza and the West Bank.
But today's leadership will never solve those problems. On principle, Bibi does not want those problems solved.
And that is why this leadership is the worst the Jewish people have had, possibly in its entire three thousand year history.
Postmark....
Palestinian Social Media
Channels identified with Fatah:
The firing of Hamas from Rafah towards Kerem Shalom gave Israel justification for the action in Rafah, saved them, and gave them a way out in the eyes of the whole world. How stupid is Hamas.
A Gazan with a popular Facebook account:
Netanyahu had two problems:
The first - he failed to find justification before the world for military action in Rafah.
The second - he could not find a justification for preventing the entry of goods into the Strip.How did Hamas solve two problems for him at once?
Launch rockets from Rafah towards the crossing that brings in the goods...
Context:
Gazans know that Hamas’ actions caused the destruction. The narrative of “Gazans elected Hamas” is misleading and unhelpful. Fatah, the party of Arafat and Abbas had been corrupt and ineffective. Hamas made a multi-year effort as a service organization. In the 2006 elections, Hamas won a majority, but they were not allowed to govern because they rejected coexistence with Israel. Between 2006 and 2009 there were several outbreaks of violence between Fatah (P.A.) and Hamas. In the West Bank, Fatah maintained control. In Gaza, Hamas over time used violence to secure complete control and a single party state.
How Many Dead?
From the Wall Street Journal:
Israel’s military, however, has suggested that the Palestinian estimates of total dead could be roughly correct. Military officials say their campaign in Gaza has killed 11,000 to 13,000 Hamas and other militants.
They also estimate that close to two civilians have been killed for every militant. That would imply a total death toll in the mid-30,000s. Some civilians have been killed by Palestinian militants’ actions including misdirected rockets, Israeli military officials say.
Hamas officials have said that around 6,000 to 8,000 of their fighters have been killed. U.S. and Egyptian intelligence officials reckon the true number of dead militants is in between the Israeli and Hamas claims.
In March, when the Palestinian estimate reached 30,000 deaths, the Israeli military’s chief spokesman said the total figure could be roughly right. “I don’t push back. I don’t question the number 30,000,” Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari told reporters. He disputed the Gaza health ministry’s claim that the vast majority were women and children.
Characterization
That is the main thing. Not the number but the characterization. Even taking the Hamas provided number of around 7,000 of their membership killed, the only way the remaining deaths could be disproportionately women and children is if all Gazan men live in Hamas’ tunnels. That hasn’t happened and the percentage of men active in Hamas seems to be modest (low single digits, percent-wise). Therefore, off the top, remaining deaths would be expected to have the same gender and age distribution as the Gaza population. But it may be more complex than that: In studies of warfare in Syria and other countries, the mortality rate of children from bombs and explosions is considered much higher, due to a number of factors. —Thank you M.T.
First Arab Christian woman to head Israel’s University of Haifa
Relief Area
Alef: Briefing in NYC:
Bet
(Above referring to the right-now leafletting of Rafah.)
Gimmel: Israel and Gaza conflict summarized in a video?
Dalet
Hey
The weather is pleasant and a bit windy. I am finishing a read (my fourth) of Stoll'sCuckoo's Egg (thanks Mom!). I bought this copy as a gift for a friend. Once upon a time, it was required reading in the company I ran.
Stay well,
Raf
(Thank you A.K., B.P., B.F.Z.)